Corner Picks: Premier League best bets for Manchester derby and bonus Madrid derby value

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 5, 2021 at 1:15 pm ET • 4 min read

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Last weekend there weren't a lot of marquee matchups on the schedule. That's not the case this weekend, as we have the Manchester Derby in the Premier League and El Derbi in La Liga. All that and the Champions League resumes next week, so it's an exciting time to be a fan of the beautiful game.

It's also a beautiful time for Corner Picks because we had our best week in a while last week, going 3-1 and finishing up 3.03 units on the weekend. That took a big chunk out of the hole we'd dug ourselves, but we've still got work to do. Let's finish the job this weekend. All odds are via the William Hill Sportsbook.

1. Burnley vs. Arsenal

All right, so we have two options here. We can place this bet on Friday night and wake up to winners on Saturday, or we can drag ourselves out of bed at 7:30 a.m. ET (It's 6:30 a.m. for me) on a Saturday to watch it play out live. I will be waking up. If you prefer the Wake Up To Winners strategy, I support that too. Either way, we're continuing our tradition of fading Arsenal as a favorite, though we're modifying it a bit.

It was a lot more fun to fade Arsenal earlier in the season when the rest of the world hadn't caught on to the fact that Arsenal wasn't very good. Now the market has caught up a bit, but at the same time, Arsenal are improving. Well, kind of. Arsenal have won two straight, but one of those wins was a bonkers 3-2 win over Benfica in the Europa League, and the other was a 3-1 win over a Leicester City team that seems to be falling apart at the moment. Burnley beat Arsenal earlier this season, and are a team that, no matter the result, has proven time and time again to be an absolute pain in the butt to break down. I estimate that Burnley picks up a point in this match roughly half the time, so to get this at +125 makes it too difficult to pass up. And, believe me, I wanted to pass it up so that I could sleep in. Pick: Burnley or Draw (+125)

2. Manchester City vs. Manchester United

Manchester City are Manchester City. They are amazing, and have wrapped up the Premier League already. Still, as incredible as this team is, they're still considerably better when playing at home with an expected goal difference (xGD) of +1.33 at home compared to +1.01 on the road. Now, that +1.01 on the road is better than any other Premier League team does anywhere, but that's still a large gap for City's home/away splits. And that's one reason why I just can't go any other direction with this pick than City, even if the juice is heavy.

Manchester United are just entirely too dependent on Bruno Fernandes for me to give them a realistic chance of picking up a point in this match. That United are in second place is a testament to how superb Fernandes has been this season, but he's not going to be able to take City down on his own. And, to be honest, United's recent form hasn't done much to inspire confidence. Not only have they drawn their last three matches, but they've been scoreless draws. Good luck keeping City from scoring. Pick: Manchester City (-210)

3. Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid

In the interest of full disclosure, I took out a future on Real Madrid to win La Liga a few weeks ago. Rooting for that bet is not impacting this pick, but the reasons I made the bet apply here. This iteration of Real Madrid is not the Galáticos Madrid, nor is it the more recent Ronaldo-led versions. But it very well could be the best team in Spain at the moment!

Atlético got off to a great start and are still in control of the league table, but their recent play has been concerning. They might've beaten Villarreal 2-0 last weekend, but xG showed Atléti losing that match 1.3-0.5. Atlético's attack has dried up a bit in recent weeks, and that's a problem considering it wasn't overwhelming to begin with. The good news is they've still been solid defensively, but I think there's some bad timing at play here. In Real Madrid's Champions League match against Atalanta, they faced a team that was down to 10 men for an hour, and had trouble breaking through for what would prove to be the match-winning goal. Well, Real will face a similar defensive setup from Atléti this weekend. It's not crazy to think Real put in some extra time in training preparing for it, given the failures against Atalanta. Pick: Real Madrid (+180)