How Denzel Valentine and Deyonta Davis compare to Michigan State players in NBA
Valentine and Davis could join Zach Randolph, Draymond Green and other Spartans in the NBA
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7 min read
With the NBA Draft now less than a month away, we're taking a look at a number of projected or likely first-round picks and comparing them to those who came before -- at the very same school.
The comparison game is a go-to among fans, scouts, GMs and scribes, but for fun, we're going to narrow the gap to only looking at specific schools. We're started the series on Tuesday with Kansas. Today we look at Michigan State, which has two players projected in the first round, both of whom at this point seem near-locks to go in the lottery.
Deyonta Davis was probably the fifth or sixth most important player for Sparty last season. But no matter his production or playing time, he was always going to be an NBA prospect. Now he could be picked in the top 10. Not long after the season ended, he announced he was heading to the NBA. Going with him is Denzel Valentine, who completed one of the best four-year careers in MSU history. He won his share of national player-of-the-year awards, and in becoming the first player in recorded NCAA men's D-I history to average better than 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in one season, Valentine became a lock in the first round.
So let's have some fun and compare these two to Michigan State player under Tom Izzo who came before them. How good are there chances to become among the best MSU players in school history at the NBA level?
(Offensive rating and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are from RealGM's player database. All measurements are via Draft Express' database. Height with shoes on.)
Michigan State senior Denzel Valentine
Dossier
Height: 6 feet, 5.75 inches
Weight: 210
Wingspan: 6 feet, 10.75 inches
Standing reach: 8 feet, 6 inches
Max vertical reach: 11 feet, 2 inches
Career college stat line: 11.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4.4 apg, 110.2 ORtg, 20.4 PER
Projected range in NBA draft: 10-15
Body-wise, his measurements most closely resemble: Jason Richardson
I know! You don't believe it. Neither did I at first. But I'm telling you, Jason Richardson is the closest MSU NBA pick of the past 16 years to Valentine. Here's the crazy thing. In terms of measurements, Richardson was scary-close 15 years ago to what Valentine is now: three pounds heavier, same height (this is shocking to me), wingspan less than a foot longer, a shorter standing reach by a half-inch than Valentine ... and a max vertical reach of 11 feet, 5 inches, just three inches higher than Valentine's. And Richardson was a physical freak, which Valentine is most certainly not. This also goes to show how much Valentine shaped-up his body. Remember, he was more round, slower and weaker in his first two seasons.
Stat-wise, most closely resembles: Draymond Green
In terms of his senior season Valentine has no equal. But I'm taking the totality of his college career line and comparing it with every MSU draft pick since 2000, Green matches up not only in obvious terms (they're the only de facto/quasi point forwards Izzo's ever coached), but Green's college line: 10.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals with an offensive rating of 112.4 and a PER of 22.9. Green never had a single season as good as Valentine just did, but on the whole he did -- statistically -- have a better MSU career than Denzel.
Can be better than: Maurice Ager, Andre Hutson, Mateen Cleaves
Ager lasted four seasons. Hutson was drafted but never even played a game. Cleaves is on the MSU all-time legends table with Magic Johnson, Green and now Valentine. But his pro career was a bust. He lasted six seasons, with only his rookie year showcasing more than 33 games played. It would be a shock of Valentine doesn't play for at least six seasons and start for at least 100 games across those years.
Probably won't be as good as: Draymond Green, Jason Richardson
Green has become a top-three defender in the NBA, which Valentine will never be. He's also a top-10 player, which I wouldn't necessarily say is impossible for Valentine, it just doesn't seem likely. On the whole, Green's become an incredible player and emblematic of Golden State in that so many of those players have far outperformed their expectations. Richardson, who coincidentally was a longtime star at Golden State (but mostly during the down years) is going on 14 years in the NBA. Only a small group of players in a given draft can be reasonably expected to last more than a decade in the league, and so it's a leap right now to say Valentine can have a career that will match up to Richardson's.
Most probable career arc/impact: Morris Peterson
This section is not about comparing skill set styles, body types or positions. It's purely a projection of the safest forecast for a player. Peterson lasted 11 years in the Association. He averaged 10.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, nearly a steal a game and played 27.2 minutes. If Valentine can do that, he'll have had a successful NBA run, one that will actually outperform expectation if he's taken anywhere beyond the lottery. Heck, plenty of lottery picks don't even last five years in the league.
Michigan State freshman Deyonta Davis
Dossier
Height: 6 feet, 10.5 inches
Weight: 237
Wingspan: 7 feet, 2.5 inches
Standing reach: 9 feet, 0.5 inches
Max vertical reach: Not yet measured
Career college stat line: 7.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 119.4 ORtg, 23.9 PER
Projected range in NBA Draft: 7-15
Body-wise, most closely resembles: Adreian Payne
Payne is just a half-inch shorter in shoes, was listed as two pounds heavier at the combine than Davis' weight, has 1 1/2 inches in Davis in wingspan (a little surprising) and is basically the same in standing reach. Unlike Davis, Payne played four years in college. Their games are not that similar (Payne developed a nice mid-range ability in his final year) but certainly they're very similar when you look at the pound-for-pound.
Stat-wise, most closely resembles: Adreian Payne
This too is a match. Payne averaged 8.9 points, 5.3 rebounds. 0.6 assists, 1.0 blocks, had an ORtg of 114.3 and a PER of 21.40. All in Davis' neighborhood. They differ in that Davis, though he did not play a ton, is much stronger, more adept and versatile on both ends than Payne was at the age of 19, thus why Payne stayed four years and Davis is going now.
Can be better than: Erazem Lorbek, Goran Suton,
Izzo has been somewhat inconsistent over the years in putting guys in the pros, specifically when it comes to big men. There have been some flameouts, no question. Will Davis break that trend? Lorbek never had a shot, and Suton -- fun as he was to watch in college -- didn't play in the league either, despite being drafted. They're the only two such players under Izzo to suffer that fate. Needless to say, Davis will earn burn next season and most likely beyond that.
Probably won't be as good as: Zach Randolph
Could well have this titled "definitely won't be as good as." Randolph is similar to Davis in that he was one-and-done at MSU. But he did more and meant more for Izzo back in the early 2000s than Davis did for this team. And in his 14-year career, Randolph has become one of the most feared and respected players in the NBA. He's been an All-Star. He's, maybe even, fallen a little short of what he could have been. And still been a top-30 player in the league for more than half of his career.
Most probable career arc/impact: Shannon Brown
Reminder: This section is not about comparing skill set styles, body types or positions. It's purely a projection of the safest forecast for a player. Among all MSU guys drafted, I actually think Branden Dawson and Davis could have fairly parallel career arcs, but Dawson spent most of his rookie season last year in the D-League. So I'll pass on that for now. Otherwise? Brown is the pick. Really good athlete who's managed to be a role player going on a decade now. Averaging 7.6 points in 18 minutes per game while playing for eight teams in that span. It's not the desired path for any player -- Brown has become a consummate journeyman -- but he's also firmly been in the league and not been in danger of getting demoted. I could see Davis sticking around for nearly a decade but not ever becoming a top-five player on the teams he plays for.
Michigan State players drafted since 2000
2015: Branden Dawson (56th)
2014: Adreian Payne (15th), Gary Harris (19th)
2013: N/A
2012: Draymond Green (35th)
2011: N/A
2010: N/A
2009: Goran Suton (50th)
2008: N/A
2007: N/A
2006: Maurice Ager (28th), Paul Davis (34th)
2005: Erazem Lorbek (46th)
2004: N/A
2003: N/A
2002: Marcus Taylor (51st)
2001: Jason Richardson (fifth), Zach Randolph (19th), Andre Hutson (51st)
2000: Mateen Cleaves (14th), Morris Peterson (21st)
OVERVIEW
Total players drafted: 15
Lottery picks: 1
First round: 8
Average career college stat line of MSU first rounders: 11.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.1 apg, 25.4 mpg, 113.5 ORtg, 19.1 PER
Average career NBA stat line of MSU first rounders: 9.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 20.4 mpg, 97.1 ORtg, 11.4 PER
Total All-Star Games for all MSU players: 3
Average number of teams per player: 2.8
