Arkansas State vs. UCF prediction, Cure Bowl pick, odds, line, watch live stream
How to watch the Cure Bowl: Game storylines, spread, time, date, TV channel
•
2 min read
The AutoNation Cure Bowl will pit UCF from the American Athletic Conference against Arkansas State from the Sun Belt it what is a veritable home game for the Knights in Orlando.
Viewing information
Date: Dec. 17
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Location: Camping World Stadium -- Orlando, Florida
TV: CBS Sports Network
Storylines
UCF: The Knights will be at home in Orlando as they look to finish the season with a winning record in coach Scott Frost's first season. A 7-6 record might look average, but for a team that went 0-12 one year ago it would be a tremendous turnaround for Frost in his first season as he looks to build the program back up.
The biggest improvement from a year ago has been the defensive performance by UCF. The Knights cut their points per game allowed from 37.7 (118th) to 23.8 (39th) from last season to this season. This isn't the same Arkansas State offense that averaged 40 points per game a year ago, but after a slow start to the season, the Red Wolves have scored 30 or more in five of their last six games -- the only one without 30 points being the only loss in those six games.
On the season, Arkansas State is 1-5 when it doesn't score 30 points and 6-0 when it does. If the UCF defense can play up to the level they've shown themselves to be capable of at times this season and hold the Red Wolves in the 20s, the Knights will have a good chance at winning.
Arkansas State: The Red Wolves got off to a terrible start to the season, losing their first four games with the final loss in that opening losing streak coming to Central Arkansas. Once in Sun Belt play, however, Arkansas State turned things around to win seven of the final eight games and finish second in the conference. To do so, the Red Wolves' offense improved -- as referenced above -- but the defense also got much better.
The Arkansas State defense will need to carry that positive momentum from their close to the season in this game. The Red Wolves did not play in many one-score games this season but went 1-2 in the three occasions that they did. With the way UCF plays defense, Arkansas State very well could find itself in a closer game than they typically found themselves in this season and if that's the case it will be on the defense to keep the Red Wolves in the game.
Prediction
Arkansas State's late season improvement saw the Red Wolves start winning games and also covering spreads. The 0-4 start was also 0-4 against the spread, but the Red Wolves closed with six covers in the final eight games. I think the Red Wolves are the team carrying the most momentum into the bowl game, and UCF did not beat a bowl team all season. I like Arkansas State to win straight up, but love this pick with the points. Pick: Arkansas State +5.5
Cure Bowl Expert Picks
 |  |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF -5.5 |
