Draft Day Dilemmas: Can you count on Jose Fernandez as your ace?

He's going early in drafts despite facing an innings limit, so can you count on Jose Fernandez as your Fantasy ace. Heath Cummings urges caution.

Jose Fernandez is elite. There's really no question about that.

Since entering the league in 2013 he ranks third in K/9 (10.46) and ERA (2.40) and fourth in WHIP (1.01) amongst pitchers with at least 250 innings pitched. The problem, of course, is that Fernandez has missed part of two seasons because of Tommy John surgery.

While the greatest predictor of future injury may be past injury, Fernandez's re-injury risk is not what is most bothering Fantasy owners. The Marlins and Fernandez have been fairly forthright about an innings limit that will prevent the 23 year old from approaching 200 innings in 2016.

That cutoff is important because Jacob deGrom (191) and Matt Harvey (189.3) were the only starters to finish in the top 19 at the position in points leagues with less than 200 innings in 2015. Now Fernandez is every bit as talented as the two Mets pitchers and could absolutely squeak into the top twelve like they did. Also, season long rankings are by no means the best way to measure Fantasy performance.

If Fernandez is a top-five pitcher for five months and then sits out September, the equation is completely different than if he is rested early in the season because the Marlins want him to be fresh for the stretch run. When and how Fernandez rests is important, and there is a good chance you won't have the answer when you draft.

In Roto leagues, the answer is somewhat simpler. Ratios become more important and innings matter less. Still, Carlos Carrasco was the third highest-ranked pitcher in Roto under 200 innings and he was 14th. Jacob deGrom's 2015 is probably a good place to start for Fernandez, and he finished ninth in both formats. With his elite K rate, Fernandez can give you ace-like strikeouts, so wins should be the only real concern. Well, that and the cost of drafting him.

According to Fantasy Pros, Fernandez is being drafted as the eighth pitcher off the board at the start of the third round. This is where his lack of availability for the season becomes more glaring. He's being drafted immediately ahead of Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Matt Harvey, Corey Kluber, and Dallas Keuchel. In points leagues, Cole is the only one of those I'd take Fernandez over.

The bottom line with Fernandez in Roto is that his innings limit doesn't have near the negative impact as his ADP. If you have to use an early third round pick on him but can land Harvey, Kluber or Keuchel in the fourth, you're better off waiting. Can you trust Fernandez as your ace? Yes, in the right format. But that doesn't mean he's worth what you'll have to pay for him.