Draft Day Dilemmas: Is there any reason to doubt A.J. Pollock?

Chris Towers tries to find holes in A.J. Pollock's breakout season, and comes up empty.

Skepticism is an extremely useful tool for Fantasy players. If every apparent breakout candidate was what he appeared to be, Chris Shelton would be playing out the last years of a Hall of Fame career and Phil Hughes would be polishing off a Cy Young trophy. Taking production at face value -- especially when it comes seemingly out of nowhere -- is a surefire way to be disappointed in a sport like baseball.

Of course, like any tool, skepticism isn't useful if you use it indiscriminately. Just like swinging a hammer blindly can lead to more damage than accomplishment, you need to know how to be skeptical. Skepticism for its own sake is myopic, while properly wielded, it can help divine real truths.

Take A.J. Pollock for example. He put together a couple of solid partial seasons, but 2015 was the first time he was able to put it all together for a full year. The 28-year-old outperformed nearly all reasonable expectations en route to a 157-game campaign that saw him hit .315/.367/.498 with 20 homers, 111 runs, 76 RBI and 39 stolen bases. This is a perfect time to be skeptical, right?

Probably not. Sure, Pollock's track record even going back to the minors suggests this is an outlier in his career. And it is certainly possible 2015 was the best we'll ever see from Pollock; it'd be a tough season to top. But once you start peeking under the hood at his underlying numbers, there's a lot to suggest Pollock is just this good now.

Pollock ranked among the league leaders with a .315 batting average, and it should be no surprise his .338 BABIP comes in above the league average. However, he also cut his strikeout rate to 13.2 percent thanks to a more aggressive approach at the plate. Pollock didn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone any more in 2015, but he proved better equipped to identify pitches to drive, as he increased his rate of swings on pitches inside the strike zone from 57.7 to 64.1 percent. "Be more aggressive" is often used as a fix-all answer to what ails athletes by fans, but when you can apply it selectively, as Pollock did, it can be a useful approach.

There is also reason to believe Pollock can be a high-BABIP player, given his speed and ability to make solid contact, as he sports a .327 BABIP for his major-league career and was consistently in the .340 range in the minors. The fact that he improved his hard-hit rate to 33.8 percent -- the average for non-pitchers was just 29.0 percent in 2015 -- is also a good indicator of his strong contact abilities.

That latter improvement could also be tied into his improved power. 20 homers might be Pollock's peak power output, because he just doesn't hit many balls in the air overall. However, because he puts so many balls in play, expecting something in the high-teens seems realistic, since his 13.2 percent HR/FB rate wasn't exactly out of whack. Add in a solid 20.8 percent line drive -- a number that tends to fluctuate more than others, for what it's worth -- and all signs point to Pollock's emergence as one of the league's best hitters last season being legitimate.

At a time when players seem to be peaking earlier than ever, Pollock seems to be a classic case of a late-bloomer. You can try to poke holes in his breakout season, but nearly everywhere you look, Pollock's performance stands up to scrutiny. He plays in a park that should allow his power to play up, and Pollock's ability to put the bat on the ball and consistently drive it should allow him to keep producing.

Maybe last year is the best it ever gets for Pollock. Maybe he never again reaches the heights of his post-All-Star break run -- he hit .335/.388/.538 in the second half a year ago. However, when you look at the entirety of Pollock's resume last season, it's hard to find good reasons to be skeptical. I'm drafting him with confidence.