Fantasy Baseball: Dropping in on late-round fliers

A month into the season, it's not too early to dump some late-round draft gambles. Al Melchior sorts through 10 of them, separating the reliable from the expendable.

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When the inevitable urge to drop a slow starter emerges early in April, my perennial piece of advice is to give even your most marginal players two or three weeks before you drop them. Most of us have already made liberal use of the "Drop" button now that we are a month into the season, yet many of the players who were popular as late-round picks are still hanging around in a majority of the leagues on CBSSports.com.

Some, like Trevor Story, Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez, have been so successful that it's easy to forget that they probably cost you nothing more than a late pick or a nominal bid in a standard mixed league. Once reminded of that, it makes sense to wonder if these players are really that much better than we thought they were just over a month ago. For the late-round fliers who haven't performed quite as well, now is a good time to consider whether we would be best served to move on.

Below are 10 players were typically drafted in the later rounds in standard mixed Rotisserie leagues. To evaluate their roster-worthiness, I'm breaking out a carefully-calibrated version of the Drop-o-Meter. The ratings correspond with the likelihood of a potential drop as follows.

1: Undroppable except in case of season-ending injury
2: Almost impossible to conceive of dropping
3: Won't even think of dropping before July
4: Won't even think of dropping before June
5: No plans to drop now, but a bad slump could change that
6: Giving some thought to dropping, but giving benefit of the doubt for now
7: Would drop if a highly desirable player becomes available
8. Actively shopping waivers for a replacement
9. Only keeping on my roster if waivers are barren
10. Hitting eject button no matter what

Now that we have brought this sophisticated measuring instrument into our lab, it's time to gently place each of our late-round draftees onto it for a reading.

Note: Stats are for games played through Tuesday, May 3.

Even though the Athletics signed Hill to be an integral part of their rotation, owners were reluctant to invest much in him due to his history of control issues, unimpressive spring performance and the short duration of his late-season comeback with the Red Sox. Even though Hill's control has been sketchy at times, he is shaping up to be a reliable starter. Four of his last five outings have been quality starts, as he has been getting swinging and called strikes at high rates (11 and 24 percent over that span, respectively).

Drop-o-Meter: 1

Story may already be better known for the slump that followed his early home run binge than for the binge itself, but he could already be embarking on yet another chapter. Over his past six games, Story has gone 8 for 27 (.296) with two home runs and three walks, going hitless in just one of those contests. Of course, Story was not going to be anywhere near as productive as he was in his first week, but his minor league stats indicate that we can reasonably expect him to provide good power for a shortstop. He should be able to succeed, even with a high strikeout rate.

Drop-o-Meter: 2

Sanchez has allowed more than one earned run in only one of his five starts, so his surprising season debut against the Rays doesn't appear to be a total fluke. He clearly belongs in standard mixed leagues, though his season-to-date stats have been skewed by facing the Rays twice. Over 14 innings against Tampa Bay, Sanchez has 14 strikeouts and two walks, but the Rays have the American League's highest swing rate and lowest contact rate. He may decline a bit from here on out, but he gets enough called strikes and grounders to be worth keeping for the foreseeable future.

Drop-o-Meter: 4

Wright has been a pleasant surprise, not only in that he has started all but four of the Mets' first 25 games, but that he is already just two extra-base hits shy of last season's total of 12 (in 38 games). He has geared his approach for more power, hitting more flies and striking out more often, so Wright may not improve his batting average much going forward. Though he has the fifth-worst contact rate in the majors, he can still be productive in standard mixed leagues. He should certainly be able improve upon his .261 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position.

Drop-o-Meter: 4

Lawrie has been hitting for average and getting on base all season so far, but of late, he's been adding extra-base hits to his stat line. Perhaps this was to be expected, as he began the season playing mostly in pitcher-friendly parks. Lawrie has played each of his last 15 games in environments that are conducive to power, and he has produced three home runs, five doubles and a .286 Isolated Power over that span. Given that Lawrie will play half of his games at U.S. Cellular Field, his prospects for a sustained power breakout look promising.

That outlook could change soon, though. If Lawrie can't maintain his recent power spike over the next 21 games, which will be played at U.S. Cellular Field, Globe Life Park and Yankee Stadium, he could easily become expendable.

Drop-o-Meter: 5

Given that Morales only qualifies as a DH and that his stat line is an eyesore, it could be tempting to give him the boot. He deserves a little more patience, as his 18.7 percent line drive rate is out of line with his typical marks in the mid-20s. A low liner rate is often a sign of bad luck rather than a skill deficiency, and an upward regression to Morales' norm would mean a higher batting average and more extra-base hits.

Drop-o-Meter: 5

There have been no red flags from Colome's first month as the Rays' closer, though he hasn't put up eye-popping numbers either. In shallower formats, where there are viable closers on waivers, Colome is not beyond trading in, but there is no immediate reason to dump him in standard mixed leagues. It's not clear that Brad Boxberger wouldn't be an upgrade, and the erstwhile closer is nearing a rehab assignment. If there are clear indications that Boxberger will supplant Colome, it will be time to line up a replacement.

Drop-o-Meter: 5

If you invested in Ramos late in your draft, you have to be feeling pretty good about that pick now. As hard as it is to part with a late-rounder who has outperformed his draft position, now is the time to sell Ramos. He is making more frequent contact, but his average is bolstered by a .365 BABIP. Ramos may have a difficult time maintaining a normal .300ish BABIP given that his pull tendencies on grounders and line drives are among the strongest in the majors. His track record suggests he may also be due for a downturn in his Isolated Power.

Drop-o-Meter: 6 in 0ne-catcher leagues, 3 in two-catcher leagues

To be truthful, I should probably give Bradley a "9" on the Drop-o-Meter, since I have already dumped him in most of my leagues. However, he turned hot immediately after I turned him loose, so if I still owned him, I might be a little more hesitant to let him go. Though Bradley has hit three doubles and three triples during his nine-game hit streak, he has mashed just one homer and is riding a .440 BABIP. His K-rate is down substantially from previous seasons, but without more home run power, he is pretty expendable outside of deeper leagues.

Drop-o-Meter: 7

As a hard thrower, Eovaldi has teased us with the possibility of a high K-rate, and with a 9.4 K/9 ratio this season, we are finally getting it. It's too bad that Eovaldi is still finding ways to frustrate Fantasy owners. This time, it's a penchant for allowing extra-base hits, as he has yielded a .220 Iso to his opponents. Eovaldi is throwing strikes in addition to getting strikeouts, so an optimist might say that he is just one step away from breaking out. To my eyes, owning Eovaldi is a frustrating game of whack-a-mole, in which he shores up one area of his game only to let another go to seed. I'm done.

Drop-o-Meter: 10