Fantasy Baseball: Is James Shields done?

There isn't much reason for Fantasy owners to keep waiting on James Shields after his latest shelling, Chris Towers says.

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Because he didn't rely on a blazing fastball, James Shields was a pitcher who aged very well in his early 30's. From 25 through 29, Shields posted a 3.86 ERA, and then sported a 3.29 mark from 30 through 32, and he made at least 33 starts in seven straight seasons before joining the Padres in 2015.

He took the mound every fifth day and made 33 starts for the Padres, but the results just weren't what we expected. His strikeout rate spiked a year ago, but that also came with an increase in his walk and home run rates, leading to a 3.91 ERA. His track record of strong control and better results overall led some to believe a bounce-back campaign might be in the works, but Shields was shipped out by the Padres 11 starts into the season with a 4.28 ERA. Hardly what we hoped to see.

And if you were hoping the trade to the White Sox might be the change of scenery he needed to get back on track, his first two starts have not been what you hoped to see. Shields was tagged for seven runs on eight hits with three homers in his first start, and then gave up six on nine hits in five innings Monday night, bringing his total to 13 runs in seven innings with the White Sox.

Things are bad for Shields. He was useful for Fantasy last season because he was a reliable source of strikeouts and won 13 games, but his rate stats left a lot to be desired. This season, he isn't even giving you the wins or strikeouts. Is there any reason to be hopeful that Shields might turn things around?

I'm not sure.

Shields was never exactly a finesse pitcher, but he wasn't exactly blowing hitters away with heat, either. He typically lived in the low-to-mid-90's with his fastball, and was able to sustain that deep into his 30's before it started dipping last season. This is the second season in a row we've seen Shields' average fastball velocity drop, down to 91.4 MPH in 2016 so far:

That is a pretty typical thing to see as a pitcher ages, but in Shields' case, it has come at the same time as a dip in his performance. Velocity isn't everything, but the ball reaching the plate a fraction of an inch faster obviously gives the batter less time to react, which increases a pitchers' margin for error.

And the numbers bear that out. Shields' curveball and changeup remain both his main source of swings and misses and his most effective pitches; going back to the start of the 2015 season, Shields' changeup produces a .233 average and .178 ISO, while his curveball is at .186 and .154. His offspeed pitches are still getting the job done. The problem is, his hard stuff just doesn't seem to work these days.

Specifically, Shields' four-seam fastball and cutter have been dreadful over the last season-plus. Opposing hitters have hit .301 against the fastball, with a massive .257 ISO, and things aren't much better with the cutter, which sports a .272 average and .235 ISO against. Considering he throws these two pitches nearly 50 percent of the time, this is a serious issue.

And it might not be one with an easy fix. Relying on the changeup and curveball more would be an obvious answer, but will they be as reliably effective when batters can expect them more? Maybe, and it might be an approach worth going after, since nothing else seems to be working for him right now.

However, it might just be time for Fantasy owners to give up on Shields. He might still be able to be effective, but if that looks more like 2015 than 2014, is that really worth waiting on? Shields' move to the American League -- and to U.S. Cellular Field specifically -- would tend to accentuate his worst tendencies. This is tough home park for a pitcher with homer issues, and the presence of the designated hitter only exacerbates that.

Give me James Paxton. Give me Danny Duffy. Or Jerad Eickhoff, Blake Snell, Drew Smyly or Adam Conley, all of whom are owned in a similar range as Shields and who at least have youth and upside in their favor, to go with their flaws. Shields' best days are behind him, and it's hard to see him turning the clock back. I just don't believe there is enough upside left to wait on.