Fantasy Baseball: Matt Harvey yet to be tested in promising start

Matt Harvey has exceeded all expectations in his first two starts, but Chris Towers says the former Mets ace isn't all the way back just yet.

Things have mostly been very easy for Matt Harvey so far this season. The Mets have scored at least six runs for him in each of his first two starts, and he has allowed four earned runs of his own through his first 12 1/3 innings. Given how low expectations were coming into the season, this has to count as just about a best-case scenario possible through two starts.

However, if you believe that you can't really know someone until you see them under pressure, we haven't really seen much from Harvey so far. He has faced just four batters with runners in scoring position so far, and few have really come in threatening situations thanks to the run support the Mets have given him. Still, we did see what Harvey is still capable when his back was against the wall Tuesday, in a bases loaded situation against the Phillies.

Harvey pitched into trouble in the fifth inning, allowing two straight singles and a walk with two outs to bring up Odubel Herrera. He opened Herrera up with two straight curveballs in the dirt, both of which Herrera swing over. He then tried to get him to open the strike zone up for a couple of fastballs, both of which Herrera took, before Harvey finished him off with a third curveball, and a third swinging strike to get out of the jam. 

Harvey isn't all the way back yet, as we'll go over shortly. But for at least that at-bat, he showed there is still plenty left in the tank. With his back against the wall, he dug deep and spun off three vintage curveballs, making an All-Star swing through all three of them. It's a nice reminder of what Harvey is still capable of.

But he isn't that guy all of the time. At least, not yet. As he works his way back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, Harvey still isn't himself yet. He averaged 94.2 MPH with his fastball in each of his first two outings, a number he has failed to top just three times in his career prior. Harvey isn't all the way back in terms of his velocity, and he is even about a full tick behind where he was last April.

Harvey also hasn't been as sharp as his numbers might indicate when it comes to his command. He has induced a fair amount of weak contact, but a career-low 9.5 percent swinging strike rate indicates he has been more hittable than that -- a point backed up by a microscopic, unsustainable .161 BABIP.  On Tuesday, he hung plenty of sliders around the middle of the strike zone, as you can see here:

That is hardly ideal pitch location, and it's not exactly uncharitable to assume that Harvey might be staring at far worse results if he hadn't gone up against the Braves and Phillies in his first two starts. He has been the beneficiary of more than a little good luck en route to his 2.92 ERA through two starts.

Still, given where he was last season, and the severity of the injury he is working his way back from, this isn't a bad place for Harvey to start. If all these few good starts do is help Harvey with the mental side of the game, that isn't a bad thing at all. As he (presumably) continues to build up arm strength, his velocity should continue to improve, making his stuff play up even more.

That isn't a guarantee, and Harvey won't be able to survive with his current command and just okay stuff like he has shown early on. If you're optimistic about Harvey, it's because you think, as he continues to get further removed from his surgery, he will continue to improve. There's no guarantee of that, and viewing him as a sell-high candidate right now isn't a bad idea, if someone comes nibbling.

However, if Harvey can iron out some of his command issues before they really bite him, it's not unrealistic to think he can still live up to his top-20 SP upside, although with his history of injuries I'm not ready to bet on him getting there. But these first two starts have gone about as well as even the most optimistic Harvey backers could have hoped. It is, if nothing else, a good place to start, and more than I expected to see at this point.