Instant Fantasy Reaction: Aroldis Chapman deal impacts Andrew Miller, Hector Rondon most
Aroldis Chapman's move to the Cubs doesn't impact his Fantasy value too much, according to Scott White, but it does shake up the relief pitcher landscape.
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Andrew Miller is a closer again.
That should be Fantasy owners' biggest takeaway from Monday's deal between the Cubs and the Yankees. Aroldis Chapman changes addresses for the second time in eight months, the Yankees' farm system gets a nice retooling, and Miller takes Hector Rondon's place on the closer carousel.
OK, so that last part isn't great for everyone -- Rondon owners probably aren't so keen on this deal -- but as far as the entire Fantasy Baseball landscape is concerned, it's a net gain.
Miller wasn't just the second-best reliever on the Yankees. He's arguably the second-best in all of baseball, his 1.84 FIP over the last three years trailing only -- surprise, surprise -- Chapman. He needs to be closing, and now he is again.
Unfortunately, the news isn't sneaking up on anybody. Even before the deal was fully consummated, Miller was owned in more than 80 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, so it's not like Rondon owners can turn to Miller as a replacement, at least not via the waiver wire. That said, maybe the Miller owner will be looking to cash in on his investment, especially since the left-hander may well be on the move himself, but to me, that's a non-issue. You have to think wherever he goes he'll be closing. He's the second-best reliever in all of baseball, after all, and in the discussion for the best in Fantasy.
Ahead of Chapman? Hey, it's possible. I'll keep Chapman ahead for now because of those microscopic concerns about Miller's job security. But the thing Chapman owners have to realize (and Rondon owners know all too well) is that the Cubs' success can actually work against their closer. It's a wonder we didn't consider Rondon himself elite given that he had a 1.95 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a closer for a first-division ballclub, but his 18 saves trail Alex Colome (who closes for a last-place team), Sam Dyson (who didn't begin closing until mid-May) and Jonathan Papelbon (who missed about a month with a strained intercostal). Chapman himself was suspended for all of April, and he still has 20 saves.
Rondon underwhelmed in Fantasy because the Cubs so often won by so much that they didn't need to turn to their closer. Only recently have their wins been of a more humble variety, with Rondon recording four of his 18 saves just since the All-Star break. I'm not suggesting Chapman loses significant value with this deal -- his strikeout potential is so off the charts that he sort of creates his own value -- but he doesn't gain any either.
If you're someone who was relying on Rondon for saves, as disappointing as the rate was, and trading isn't really an option for you, there may still be some closers available on the waiver wire still, at least in Head-to-Head formats. Here are three of my favorites owned in less than 70 percent of CBSSports.com leagues:
And if you're in a league where every option for saves is already owned, here are some prospective closers who could soon join the fray:























