2016 Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep: Breakouts 1.0

Will Dennis Shroder help you win a Fantasy title? Chris Towers searches for his favorite breakout candidates at the end of a wild offseason.

Towers 1.0: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts

We like to think Fantasy sports is a science, but it's more like an art.

And like any art, beauty -- or value, as it were -- is all in the eye of the beholder.

Perception is all that matters when it comes to Fantasy, which makes identifying those players who will be under- and over-valued by your peers one of the most important tasks you can undertake as you prepare for your draft.

The difference between a sleeper and a breakout isn't always so clear, but I generally tend to view them like this:

Sleeper: Someone who is liable to go undrafted in your league, who may emerge as a starting-caliber Fantasy option down the line. C.J. McCollum was the best example of this last season, as he took advantage of a gutted Portland roster to establish himself as a high-end option in all formats.

Breakout: Someone who will almost certainly be universally owned, but still has a chance to outperform his draft position. Whether it is a solid starter emerging as a star -- think Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton from just one team last year -- or a star making the leap to superstardom -- Hassan Whiteside or Damian Lillard a year ago.

Breakout candidates are the guys who turn your team from good to great.

In the world of Fantasy breakouts, there is no better archetype than the up-and-comer stepping into a starring role. You don't have to worry so much about a player improving his skill set or developing some new skill to make the leap -- they just have to be themselves in a larger role. The best example of that this season is clearly Schroder, who has been pounding on the door for a starting role over the last two seasons, eventually forcing the Hawks' hand as they traded Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers. The fact they only got a first-round pick back for Teague -- and used it to grab wing depth -- is proof the Hawks believe in Schroder's talent, and it's not hard to see why: he averaged 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists per-36 minutes last season. He can be erratic and turnover-prone, but those are hardly deadly sins for an über-talented 23-year-old. The only downside to Schroder might be the possibility that the hype makes it hard for him to outperform his ADP. If he ends up going in the third round, there isn't much upside there.

Oladipo has never really wanted for opportunities in the past, averaging 33.2 minutes per game in his first three seasons in Orlando. However, the Magic struggled to figure out how best to deploy Oladipo, and the roster around him often made it difficult for him to find consistency. Oladipo isn't the strongest ballhandler in the world, so he is best suited to serve as the team's secondary option, but Orlando's roster didn't provide many opportunities for him to step back a bit. That won't be a problem in Oklahoma City, of course, as Oladipo finds himself playing opposite Russell Westbrook in the backcourt. Oladipo's usage rate might go down next to Westbrook, but the looks he gets will be a lot cleaner, and he should find defenses that were once tilted toward him all of a sudden scrambling to keep up with him after one of Westbrook's manic drives. If Oladipo is ever going to make the leap to All-Star status, this is his best chance.

Unlike Schroder or Oladipo, Barnes hasn't really shown much more than just very brief flashes of star potential, too few and far between over the course of four seasons to really get excited about. Stuck in a low-usage role in Golden State, Barnes didn't exactly shine while getting the sort of wide-open shots some players dream of, and the Warriors often didn't seem to miss him when he went to the bench. He was strangely invisible, and the Mavericks are betting around $95 million that he has hidden depths he just never got to show in Golden State. It's a risk, but luckily, Fantasy players won't have to invest nearly nine figures to find out if he has that in him; it'll cost you more like a ninth round pick. At that kind of price, it's worth finding out if the one-time "Black Falcon" still has the ability to take flight.

Gordon got his chance to breakout in the second half of last year and the results were... fine. A bit underwhelming, to be honest, but not all bad for a 20-year-old still searching for a position. Gordon stepped into the starting lineup following a series of trades at the All-Star break and averaged 12.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.7 combined blocks and steals per game after the break. Like I said, his production was fine, but it hardly screams "future star." Gordon is a true tweener, in that he doesn't quite have the skill set to fit at either forward spot. That can be a blessing and a curse, of course: You can be too quick for power forwards to guard and too big for small forwards; or you can be too slow to get a step on small forwards and too small to battle big men on the boards. The Magic are betting that pairing Gordon with an ace shooter in Serge Ibaka will open up his game, and coach Frank Vogel has talked about using Gordon like he used Paul George in Indiana, as a secondary ballhandler on the wings. That might be a bit overenthusiastic on Vogel's part, but it speaks to the role he would ideally like to see Gordon fill. Given the way Fantasy players tend to give up on young players who don't immediately become stars, Gordon might actually be a post-hype breakout candidate this season.

Capela was hardly thrust into an ideal role last season, as he spent much of his time playing next to Dwight Howard on those occasions when he got to play with the starters. That combination was effective, mostly because they simply owned the boards, but it left the Rockets playing with two big men who simply cannot effectively space the floor. It is a testament to Capela's athleticism and touch near the rim that he was still able to shot 66.0 percent on shots within three feet of the rim, especially since those shots made up a whopping 78.6 percent of his attempts. With Howard's time in Houston ended, Capela stands to step into a much larger role, and he could be the perfect rim-running, screen-setting center for Mike D'Antoni's pick-and-roll-heavy offense. Don't be surprised if Capela averages a double-double, with three-plus combined blocks and steals this season; if you can stomach his free-throw shooting, he might even be a top-12 center.

Another breakout archetype is the established veteran on a bad team, and Lin is the best example of this right now. The Nets are so bereft of talent that anyone even remotely competent is going to put up numbers, which explains how Jarrett Jack averaged 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game for them last year. Lin is a better playmaker and driver, and his ability to get into the lane and draw contact should give the Nets a dimension the roster sorely lacks. He is a much more efficient scorer than Jack, and should have no trouble besting his numbers from a year ago. It won't be quite Linsanity again in New York, but Lin should be a starting-caliber point guard in Brooklyn this season.

It says a lot about Winslow that he was able to make an impact on the Heat last season despite his relatively limited game. Winslow played a big role for the Heat, and they were consistently better with him on the floor than not, but he would rarely end up making an impact on the box score. He has an opportunity to change that this season, with the Heat losing Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson from their wing depth chart this offseason, and Winslow could be a surprise star if he can turn potential into reality.

Last season, Bazemore proved he was more than a novelty. After being mostly known for his celebrations from the bench for his first three seasons, Bazemore emerged as a consistent contributor for the Hawks last season, providing them with enough shooting to make the rest of his game play up. Bazemore is a long, athletic defender, and has worked hard to make himself a passable shooter and playmaking, injecting a shot of unpredictability into a team that needs that from the wing. With Howard replacing Al Horford at the pivot, the Hawks will need even more of that playmaking from the perimeter, and that could be exactly what Bazemore needs to take yet another step forward.

The question for Hood isn't whether he has the talent to breakout, at least, not to me. The soon-to-be 24-year-old took a big step forward last season, but has the ability to do even more than what he managed last season, thanks to his strong shooting ability, improving handle and playmaking ability. He could have a Khris Middleton-like breakout in the right situation, however the Jazz are deep enough on the wings that he might not get the opportunity. With George Hill and Gordon Hayward around, it might be hard for Hood to break out even further, but I wouldn't bet against his talent.

If all Jokic does is plays more minutes next season than he did as a rookie, he is going to be a star. Jokic's minutes were limited for much of the season, but he was tremendous on a per-possession basis, becoming just the ninth player ever to put up 23 points, 16 rebounds and five assists per-100 possessions for a full season, joining names like Barkley, Duncant, Garnett, Abdul-Jababar and others. If he can sustain that production while playing closer to 30 minutes per game, you might be looking at a top-five Fantasy center; if he can improve on it, the sky is the limit.