2016 Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep: Busts 1.0

Are the Warriors simply too good? Do they cancel themselves out in Fantasy? Chris Towers looks for 10 players who could break Fantasy players' hearts on Draft Day.

Towers 1.0: Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts

Fantasy busts are always controversial.

That's why it's fun.

You get to slaughter sacred cows, making hamburger out of everyone's favorite first-round picks, and who doesn't love that?

And boy, do I have some USDA Prime cuts for you this season.

Last year's consensus top overall pick and No. 1 player is represented, along with the rest of his teammates on what might be the most talented team in NBA history. In addition to him, we have three other NBA All-Stars, a few recent top-five picks, and some of the steadiest Fantasy contributors of their era.

You won't necessarily kill your team drafting any of these players, but if their seasons go the way I think they will, you certainly won't be happy with the investment you've made in them either.

You can really throw all of the Warriors' stars in here: Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green all have bust potential. That isn't to say they won't be good, because all four are likely to be very, very good this season. That is part of the problem, of course: The Warriors might be so good there is no need for their starters to play more than 30 minutes per game. The other part of the problem is simple math, as these four combined for a 108 percent usage rate last season. You can fudge the numbers and stagger their minutes a bit, but it's hard to see how this quartet plays 2,500-plus minutes each without a severe drop in usage across the board. In the Heat's first year of their Big Three, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all logged at least 2,795 minutes, with a combined usage rate of 86.6 percent; no other player logged at least 1,000 minutes with a usage rate over 16.0 percent. If their prices were being properly discounted to account for the likely drop in production, all four would be fine Fantasy pickups, obviously, but I'm not sure they will be. If Curry and Durant are still going in the top five overall, with Green following in the first half of the second round and Thompson in the third, it's hard to see how they live up to expectations.

Wade's decision to leave the Heat might have wounded their chances of competing this season -- while also being a blow to the team's mythos -- but it might not be the worst outcome in the long run. Miami might have gotten the last great year of the legend's career, as he mostly managed to avoid injuries in 2015-16 while playing 74 games, his most since 2010-11. Wade's per-game production remained terrific, as he averaged 19.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game, but now finds himself in an awkward spot in Chicago. Wade managed to dominate the ball in Miami despite the presence of Goran Dragic, sporting a 31.6 percent usage rate, but now has to contend with not one but two ball-dominant players in Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler. Butler and Wade are accomplished cutters off the ball, but none of this trio is a reliable 3-point shooter, and all are at their best when they can get into the teeth of the defense and either finish at the rim, draw a foul or kick it out to an open shooter. Even if Rondo and Wade are at the height of their powers, this would be a difficult balancing act; with both past their primes, it could spell disaster. With the awkward fit and Wade's injury history, this season could go south in a hurry for the soon-to-be 35-year-old. Don't pay for what he did last season.

The Kings and Rudy Gay have reached a strange point in their relationship, as rumblings came out that both sides are interested in moving on from the other with just one more guaranteed year on his contract. Gay remains a productive player, though he took a bit of a step back after seemingly improving two years ago with the Kings. He took on less of a playmaking role, with DeMarcus Cousins becoming even more of a focal point, and that left Gay drifting a bit. With the Kings not particularly invested in him long term, there's a chance his role continues to slip this season, given his somewhat awkward fit next to Cousins. There is always the chance that a trade changes the picture, but even that injects a bit of unnecessary risk into the equation for Fantasy owners; is Rudy Gay, at his best, worth the potential that he might be traded to a contender that won't use him as much? Gay won't be a bad Fantasy option, he just might not be as valuable as in years' past.

Coming off knee surgery, we can definitely forgive Parker's slow start last season. He was productive once he got going, however, averaging 18.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game in the second half, and it seems pretty fair to expect that kind of production from him this season. That was good for 28.6 Fantasy points per game after the break, a solid total that could push him into the top-50 in Fantasy next season. If you are drafting in a H2H league, Parker's high-volume scoring has enough value to be worth targeting in the first five rounds, especially given his breakout potential. However, for those of you playing in category-based leagues, it could be really easy to overrate Parker, who didn't do much beyond score the ball last season. He is an okay rebounder and passer, but doesn't stand out in either facet and, unfortunately, is much less of a finished product everywhere else. Even after the All-Star break, Parker had just nine 3-pointers in 28 games, while posting mediocre defensive totals and just one more assist than turnover. Parker's ability to scorer still impresses, but the rest of the game is too raw to view as a top-100 player in Roto.

There is no doubt Gasol can be worth a pick in the first three rounds when healthy, and he proved that by averaged 16.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.3 combined blocks and steals per game last season. However, he missed 30 games with a fractured foot, arguably the worst type of injury for a seven-footer to suffer, given how much stress the foot is under with every step. Gasol has missed at least 20 games in two of his last three seasons as well, and he turns 32 in January, a bad combination for a big man. If Gasol's price factors in the huge risk he carries with him, he could be a fine option in the fourth or fifth round in what is suddenly a very deep second tier at center. However, if you have to invest a third-round pick in a center, you're better off taking someone like Derrick Favors or Rudy Gobert.

Another major injury risk, Holiday has missed 107 games over the last three seasons due to a recurring issue with stress reactions in his lower right leg. He was tremendously productive after overcoming the issues last season, averaging 21.2 points and 7.4 assists per game after the All-Star break, but it's hard to say if these kind of injuries can ever truly be in the rearview mirror. It is possible Holiday will be clear from this point on, free to log 35-plus minutes every game while playing on back-to-backs, but that risk is still there in my eyes. Add in the risk of Holiday just flat-out disappointing -- the presence of Tyreke Evans being the main concern here, after he missed much of last season -- and Holiday has a tough road ahead of him if he is going to be worth picking in the first four or five rounds.

Does Ellis even fit on this Pacers' team? It was awkward last season, as his scoring dipped to 13.8 points per game, it's lowest level since he was a rookie, but at least Ellis was able to up his assist average to 4.7 per game to make up for it at least a little. However, that was playing next to George Hill, who is much more of a passive, off-ball point guard than Jeff Teague, his new backcourt mate. If Ellis has to cede even more ballhandling duties to Teague, how is he going to make up for it this year? My bet is, he takes another step backwards, and might even be an ideal trade candidate for Indiana, given his awkward fit between Teague and Paul George. Let someone else be drawn in by Monta's name and his former gawdy numbers.

Someone in your league is still expecting a big breakout from Faried, whose career has stagnated basically since he burst on the scene as a rookie. He continues to post impressive per-minute rebounding and scoring numbers, but Faried's game is limited enough that he hasn't been able to convince a coach to consistently trust him with 30 minutes per game yet. I don't see any reason why that would change this season, especially on a surprisingly deep Nuggets team. They have Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari to handle the smallball power forward minutes, and Jusuf Nurkic even started to get time next to Nikola Jokic late last season, all of which could squeeze Faried out. If you still think Faried has another step to take, by all means, buy in. I won't be.

In year's past, Gortat has been one of my favorite centers to target as my No. 2, because nobody ever seems excited about drafting him. And yet, he has been a model of consistency, missing more than five games just once over the last five years while averaging 13.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game in that span. He has never had much upside, but he was, at the very least safe; he would play around 30 minutes per game, help you in field goal percentage without hurting you at the free-throw line, and wouldn't turn the ball over much. He was pretty much the perfect No. 2 center. However, after playing at least 29.9 minutes per game in each of the last five seasons, we're likely to see a reduction in Gortat's playing time this season, and very possibly a significant one. The 32-year-old has a legitimate backup in Ian Mahinmi this season, and we could see a true timeshare at the pivot in D.C. this season. Because he doesn't have much upside, Gortat probably doesn't have enough in him to remain a starting Fantasy option with competition for minutes.

The top two picks in this year's draft, Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, combined the best qualities Fantasy players look for in rookies who can make an immediate impact: pro-readiness and opportunity. We should see both produce enough to at least be worth a spot on every Fantasy roster this season, and I would expect both to be worth starting too. The No. 3 pick in the draft, on the the other hand, might have the worst of both worlds for Fantasy. He has an NBA-ready physique, but Brown was raw at Cal, shooting just 43.1 percent from the field and 29.4 percent on 3-pointers. He wasn't much of a playmaker and didn't produce big defensive numbers either, and Brown shot just 65.4 percent from the free-throw line with 37 more turnovers than assists in 34 games. He is a project, and one that likely won't get much playing time this season with the Celtics' depth on the wings. The high draft slot and pedigree might talk someone into drafting Brown in your league, but there are far better ways to use those late round picks.