14 Fantasy Football numbers to know for Week 5: Steelers using Bell more as a receiver?
Chris Towers dives into ProFootballFocus' advanced stats to take a look at the key numbers to consider for NFL Week 5.
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Chris Towers
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8 min read
Week 5 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Keeping up with 14 games in a week is a lot for your average Fantasy player to handle, so here is one key number to know for every game in the NFL in Week 5.
(Numbers from ProFootballFocus.com)
Cardinals at 49ers
40.5
Drew Stanton's accuracy percentage on deep passes in 2014, his last extended playing time
This Cardinals' offense has been based on the ability to push the ball down the field, and Carson Palmer's accuracy issues this season have held them back so far. Now, Palmer won't even bee playing this week, which pushes Stanton into the starting role. You have to imagine the Cardinals will change the offensive gameplan a bit to account for Stanton's weaknesses, but with John Brown and Michael Floyd, you don't want to take the deep ball out of the playbook entirely. Still, it's hard to see anyone beyond David Johnson being a must-start play here, and even Larry Fitzgerald carries some risk with Stanton under center.
32.0
Percent of Rob Gronkowski's snaps he has gone out on a pass route
This number was 59.2 last season, for what it's worth. Despite playing the last two games, Gronkowski clearly hasn't been himself so far, and the Patriots have responded by using him more often as a run and pass blocker this season. The addition of Martellus Bennett gives them the luxury to do this, but eventually, they need to get Gronkowski involved in the offense. With Tom Brady back, protection will be less of a concern, and if Gronkowski is closer to full health, he could be unleashed this week. Don't you dare sit him.
137.8
Passer rating when DET DB Nevin Lawson has been targeted, 2nd highest in NFL
If you want to target one player in this Detroit defense, Lawson looks to be the guy. Unfortunately for Fantasy players, it's hard to say any one Colts receiver will benefit from this matchup, because they all move around so much. Lawson lines up 64 percent of the time as the right corner on the outside, but the Colts don't have any receiver who lines up primarily on the left. Chester Rogers actually leads the team in snaps as the left outside wide receiver with 67 through four games -- he has two catches on six targets.
Bears at Colts
66.2
Jordan Howard's PFF 'Elusive Rating,' eighth best among RBs
For context, Jeremy Langford ranked 51st out of 51 running backs in elusive rating, with a 10.3 mark last season. He broke just 10 tackles on 170 touches last season, a mark Howard has already reached on just 44 touches this season. Howard is also racking up 2.91 yards per carry after contact, and already has three carries of at least 15 yards to boot. I don't think Langford is getting his job back when healthy.
100
Percent of passes thrown his way DeMarco Murray has caught
Marcus Mariota threw just 13.6 percent of his passes to halfbacks last season, but maybe that's just because he didn't have DeMarco Murray to throw it to. That rate is up to 17.5 percent so far, and Murray has caught each of the 19 passes Mariota has targeted his way. Only one running back has a 100 percent catch rate with at least 10 targets, so this has been a great start for Murray, who has long been an underrated PPR option -- he has at least 44 receptions in each of the last three seasons. He has fit in well in Tennessee, and is a must-start option against all matchups.
47.5
Joe Flacco's passer rating when pressured
Flacco has racked up plenty of yards through the first four games, but efficiency has been a concern. He has just four touchdowns on 170 pass attempts, and his 6.3 yards per attempt would be a career-worst mark for a full season. When the pocket is clean, Flacco has been fine, sporting a 94.1 passer rating and 7.2 yards per attempt, but he is averaging just 4.2 per attempt when pressured. If the Redskins can get to Flacco, this could be another long day for him.
68.4
Percent of Brock Osweiler's yards picked up through the air
Osweiler has not been impressive in his first four games with the Texans, ranking 26th in passer rating with a 74.8 mark so far. He has struggled to get on the same page as DeAndre Hopkins, and ranks just 22nd in accuracy percentage as well. However, he hasn't been afraid to take shots, either, with 16 percent of his passes targeted to 'go' routes -- the league average is 11 percent -- with an average depth of target of 24.4 yards. Osweiler hasn't hit on many of those big play opportunities, and the Vikings are the kind of defense that takes advantage of every mistake, so they could have a lot of chances for big plays this week.
28.8
Percent of Le'Veon Bell's snaps he did not line up in the backfield
The Steelers talked about using Bell more as a wideout, and they backed up that talk in his first action of the season. Bell lined up on the outside of the formation seven times, and logged seven snaps in the slot as well. All told, he ran 12 routes from outside of the backfield, including one lined up as a tight end. This is partially to make up for the Steelers' receiving corps deficiencies, partially to put Bell in positions to make plays, and partially to allow the team to use both bell and DeAngelo Williams, who still played 17 snaps in Week 4.
9.09
Yards per route run for Julio Jones in Week 4
As if 300 yards wasn't impressive enough, right? The next best performance by a wide receiver this season was 5.6 yards per route run, so Julio nearly lapped the field in his historic game. Don't expect much of an encore, however, as PFF ranks the Broncos as a top-five team in both pass coverage and pass rush. Jones is still a must-start player, but don't be surprised if he struggles in this one.
5.0
Percent of Ezekiel Elliot's touches when he has produced a missed tackle
Among running backs with at least 48 carries, this is the lowest mark in the league. He has just five missed tackles on 100 touches, and his 2.53 yards per carry after contact ranks just 14th among 22 backs in this sample as well. Elliot obviously hasn't been bad, but the Cowboys' line is making life very easy for him -- and he has taken advantage with 278 yards over the last two games. This is a pretty good rush defense, but Elliot -- with plenty of help from his line -- has established himself as a must-play Fantasy option no matter the matchup.
1.2
Percent of Todd Gurley's carries that have gone for 15-plus yards
Gurley was the NFL's premier home-run hitting running back last season, as a whopping 6.9 percent of his carries went for at least 15 yards. He hasn't been able to break loose this season, with his longest carry going for just 16 yards. The blocking hasn't been great, and he routinely faces 8-man boxes when trying to run, but it's hard to see how Gurley will continue to be held in check to this extent. He's simply too talented not to hit a big one at some point. However, this might point to how Gurley is a higher-variance play than we though coming into the season.
108.8
Passer rating when Jason Verrett is targeted
Verrett has a well-earned reputation as one of the best corners in the NFL, and the Chargers will definitely miss him in the wake of his season-ending knee surgery. However, Verrett hasn't been quite as much a force this season, allowing the highest passer rating among the team's corners so far this season. Still, his track record is strong enough that you have to view this as a big loss for the Chargers -- and a win for Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree this week.
14.1
Percent of Randall Cobb's snaps in the slot he has been targeted on
If you were trying to find a number to capture whether a wide receiver has lost a step, the share of routes they are targeted on might be your best bet. A lot goes into whether a player gets a targeted, but generally speaking, you aren't going to get many targets if you can't get open, and that is the concern with Cobb. In 2014, when he was an elite Fantasy option, Cobb was targeted on 21.1 percent of his routes out of the slot, the second-highest rate in the NFL . He also averaged 2.13 yards per route run out of the slot, the highest mark in the league. Cobb has been much less productive in both regards this season, and the return of Jordy Nelson hasn't helped like we hoped. It's hard to start him until he shows something.
66.5
Jameis Winston's accuracy percentage
Winston was graded as PFF's least accurate passer last season, with just 69.1 percent of his passes graded as catchable. That number has actually gone down this season, as Winston has either regressed or f ailed to improve in his second season. Winston does have a higher degree of difficulty than a typical quarterback, both because the Buccaneers tend to throw the ball deep more often than most teams, but also because Winston is a risk-taker. When it works out, as it did in Week 1 against the Falcons, he can put up huge numbers. However, as Winston continues to develop as a passer, consistency remains an issue. This has been an up-and-down start to the season for Winston, and he remains a risky start.
