Fantasy Football Draft Day Dilemmas: Is Mike Evans best third-year WR value?

The Year 3 wide receiver class might be the best ever, so who should you target to maximize Fantasy value? Chris Towers says that man is bounce-back Buccaneer Mike Evans.

We love our third-year wide receivers in Fantasy football, and this is, as Jamey Eisenberg has already noted, the best crop of third-year receivers ever from established stars to players on the cusp of greatness.

We've already got established stars in the form of Odell Beckham, arguably the best wide receiver in the league, and Allen Robinson, coming off a massive 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown season. We also have a strong class of players who haven't quite broken out, but certainly have that potential like Donte Moncrief and Willie Snead.

When looking for third-year breakouts, I want a combination of proven track record -- i.e. a high floor -- and upside. Beckham and Robinson won't get lumped into this discussion, because it would be hard to improve on what they have already accomplished, so when considering third-year breakout receivers, this is what the rest of the list looks like: Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, John Brown, Jordan Matthews, Allen Hurns, Donte Moncrief and Willie Snead.

That's a mighty fine list, and any one of them would make a fine addition to your Fantasy team this fall. But if I'm targeting one receiver on the list for my team, it's definitely Evans, entering his second season with quarterback Jameis Winston.

This is, in some ways, an obvious call. Evans is third among the class of 2014 class in receiving yards at 2,257, and tied for fifth with 15 touchdowns. Evans is going 15th among all wide receivers, and fifth among third-year wideouts (one second-year receiver, Amari Cooper, is going ahead of him in CBSSports.com leagues as well), so it's not like staking a claim on Evans Island is going out on a limb.

However, there might be a perception issue with Evans that doesn't quite match up with that he can reasonably be expected to be. Evans led the NFL in drops last season with 11, and saw his touchdown total drop from 12 as a rookie to just three in his second season, despite having better quarterback play. 2015 was by most measures a disappointing season for Evans, despite the fact that he finished with more yards and receptions than the previous season in the same number of games.

The two main knocks on Evans are actually the reason he is the wideout from this group to target. Touchdowns tend to fluctuate wildly from year to year, so chasing them is a surefire way to be disappointed -- and it's why Evans had some bust potential a year ago at this time. The chances of him putting together double-digit touchdown seasons in consecutive years were always low. From 2011 through 2014, only 11 of 24 players who caught 12 touchdowns in a season followed it up with a 10-touchdown season.

Of course, the same logic that led me to believe he was unlikely to keep his touchdown pace up last season also leads me to expect some improvement this season. Even if he is unlikely to reach the heights of his 2014 scoring rate (one touchdown every 10 targets), Evans should be good for a lot more scores than he had last season. Given an increased workload, another 10-score season seems reasonable.

As for the drops, I just don't think they are indicative of much. SportingCharts.com had Evans with 11 drops in 2015 to lead the NFL, after just four the previous year. His drop rate rose from 3.3 percent as a rookie to 7.4 percent last season. However, there just doesn't seem to be much consistency in that from year to year, as the following scatter plot shows:

This chart shows the 85 players who had at least 50 targets in both 2014 and 2015, with their drop rates from each year compared to one another; drop rate in 2014 didn't correlate to drop rate in 2015 in a particularly strong way.

That isn't proof that some players aren't drop prone, or that some aren't particularly good at avoiding drops. Catching the ball is a skill, and one that some players are better at than others. However, it just isn't clear that Evans' issues in 2015 will carry over to 2016, especially when it wasn't an issue in 2014.

But you're going to hear about the drops as a knock on Evans. And you're going to hear about the lack of touchdowns. And they are probably going to drop his stock on Draft Day, below Cooks, Cooper, Watkins and even Benjamin in some cases. They shouldn't.

Evans is the No. 1 option in an offense that is almost certainly going to improve next season. Winston had some characteristic struggles as a rookie, but he also averaged a healthy 7.6 yards per reception and is obviously supremely talented. The Bucs let him loose as the season went on, and he averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game after their Week 6 bye. Evans dealt with early injuries but averaged 93.8 yards on 5.5 catchers per game from Week 7 on.

Forget the drops. Forget the lack of touchdowns. As Winston grew more comfortable with the offense, and the team grew more comfortable allowing Winston to sling the ball around, Evans played like a star. That's what he is.

If you're looking for the third-year wideout with top-five potential who you might be able to get at a relative bargain, look no further than the big man in Tampa. Both he and Winston are on tap for big breakouts, and don't be surprised if Evans goes off for something like 90-1,400-10 next season. It's on the table.