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The only PGA Championship winner at Baltusrol we've ever seen is Phil Mickelson, so you know he'll rank high as we look at the 2016 field, ranked from 1-20 based on how likely each is to potentially win the fourth and final major of the season.

To sort things out, I look performance in the last five PGA Championships into consideration along with the form these golfers have shown entering this week's major.

This is not necessarily who I think will win (i.e. I don't believe Phil Mickelson will win this year), only who I think is most likely to do so if the event was played 1,000 times.

1. Rory McIlroy: Should be the favorite at PGA Championships for the next five years. Loves to flex his muscles on bigger tracks (literally). Baltusrol isn't as huge as, say, Whistling Straits, but McIlroy is coming into the PGA Championship in fine form on all tracks (well, except Oakmont). This tournament is his to lose.

2. Dustin Johnson: The numbers are eye-popping -- six straight top 10s on the PGA Tour, four of six top 10s at PGA Championships. He's overtaken the "Big Three" as the favorite this week, and it is completely deserved. How good would a Rory-DJ showdown be?

3. Jason Day: The defending champ at this event has been tough if not mildly out of form over the last few months. But he's done what No. 1 players are supposed to do. He's clawed back for top 10s and top 15s even after getting blown away early in tournaments. He's been top 15 in each of the last three PGA Championships.

4. Phil Mickelson: Last time Mickelson was here, he hit this ludicrous flop shot at the last hole to secure his first (and still only) PGA Championship. The list of winners at Baltusrol is impressive. Jack Nicklaus won two U.S. Opens there, Lee Janzen won the U.S. Open in 1993. And then Mickelson in 2005.


5. Jordan Spieth: The demise of Jordan Spieth's career has been mildly over-exaggerated. He's one of just over a dozen golfers to make the cut in the first three majors and has been playing much better golf than public perception would have you believe. It's true that the PGA Championship has been his "worst" major, but Spieth is operating on a sliding scale others are not familiar with.

6. Henrik Stenson: The leader in scoring average over the last five PGA Championships at 68.8. Oh, and he's coming off the greatest major performance ever (arguably) at Royal Troon. Tough to see him not at least factoring into the conversation this week at Baltusrol.

7. Sergio Garcia: My only hesitation here is that Garcia hasn't fared well at PGA Championships over the last half decade. His last top 10 came back in 2008. Baltusrol won't play exactly like most PGA Championship courses, but it feels like his chance to win a major this year was at Royal Troon or Oakmont.

8. Justin Rose: Two top fives in the last four years for Rose at this tournament. Got his feels back a little bit at The Open after a rusty return at Oakmont. He's a forgettable star in that he's not the sexiest name or the biggest game, but Baltusrol certainly fits his historic list of courses where he's won (Merion, Congressional, Aronimink).

9. Branden Grace: Third last year at Whistling Straits and T5 at the U.S. Open at Oakmont this year. He's the South African Angel Cabrera in that he rises to the occasion at major championships. Might end his career with the Grand Slam and six total wins.

10. J.B. Holmes: J.B. Holmes?! Don't look now, but Holmes is one of just six players with multiple top 10s at majors this season. And he's one of only three (Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia) with multiple top fives. He hasn't had success at PGA Championships, but I think that could change this week.

11. Jim Furyk: Finished T30 last year at Whistling Straits but had two top fives the two years before that. Largely forgotten about at majors, but the man just keeps on posting top 10s and top 20s. One of the more under-appreciated players of his generation.

12. Patrick Reed: Coming off the best major performance of his career at The Open where he finished T12. Has made the cut at each of his first two PGA Championships but hasn't finished better than T30. Might ride a bald eagle to the first tee if he leads at any point on the weekend.

13. Justin Thomas: A gut play here. Made the cut at all three majors. Makes an absurd amount of birdies. Could get low on Thursday or Friday and be a frontrunner. If I was ranking the majors Thomas would be most likely to win, the PGA Championship or Masters would be No. 1.

14. Rickie Fowler: I'm just not feeling it for Fowler at the majors this year. He's almost always in the top 10 of these lists. Top 14 is not egregious and nobody would really be that surprised if he won at Baltusrol, but his form just isn't peaking at the right time. Of course, Henrik Stenson had missed three straight cuts on the PGA Tour before setting Royal Troon on fire. So who knows.

15. Tony Finau: Finau has three top 20s in four majors including a top 10 at the PGA Championship last year. He might be a big game hunter.

16. Brandt Snedeker: A couple of top 15s in the last two years for Snedeker at the PGA Championship, and he's coming off a top 25 at Royal Troon.

17. Matt Kuchar: The ever-consistent Kuchar played really well at Whistling Straits last year and has top 10s in six of his last eight events on the PGA Tour. You can't be more consistent than him without winning a tournament, which might be the point. Still, it feels like that translates to a trophy at some point.

18. Jason Dufner: Dufner has a win and a second-place finish in the past five years at the PGA Championship. And he's coming off a T22 at Royal Troon. And he finished T8 at the U.S. Open. Duf Daddy is finding his groove once again after struggling the last few seasons.

19. Steve Stricker: Despite his top five at The Open and his two top 10s at PGA Championships in the last five years, it's difficult for me to see a 49-year-old winning the PGA Championship. How cool would it be for him to play his way on to the Ryder Cup team for which he will be an assistant captain though?

20. Brooks Koepka: Would be much higher on this list if not for his recent injury because of his performance at Whistling Straits last year and solid season in 2016. He has the goods to take a Wannamaker Trophy at some point in his career. I'm just not sure it's going to be this week.