AL Cy Young Power Rankings: Kluber leading a wide open race
There is no clear favorite for the AL Cy Young with seven weeks to go in the season
By
Mike Axisa
•
5 min read
Seven weeks remain in the 2016 Major League Baseball season, so while we've seen the majority of the season played, there's still a lot of baseball to go. It's a fun point to discuss how the individual awards races might shape up, so let's do that.
Before we dive in, let's point out that these aren't our predictions or even necessarily how we would vote. It's a snapshot of where things stand, and we're making subjective judgments on how the vote could turn out based on recent historical voting tendencies.
Unlike the MVP races, the Cy Young voting is generally not impacted by team quality. Pitchers don't get extra credit if their teams make the postseason. The Cy Young race is wide open this year, maybe moreso than any other awards race, so while we're listing players 1-10 here, it's really more like 1A, 1B, 1C, and so on. Here's our current snapshot look at the AL race.
Kluber, the 2014 AL Cy Young award winner, leads the AL in only one significant pitching category: FIP (2.98). He is, however, second in WHIP (1.01), fifth in strikeouts (156), fifth in innings (157), sixth in ERA+ (146), sixth in WAR (4.0), eighth in K/BB ratio (4.33), and ninth in ERA (3.21). In a race with no clear cut favorite, the guy who is among the league leaders in pretty much everything sits in the top spot.
It takes an extraordinary season for a reliever to receive serious Cy Young consideration, and an extraordinary season Britton is having. He leads the league with 37 saves and his 0.54 ERA is on pace to be the lowest in history among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings in a season. Britton hasn't allowed an earned run since April. He's quietly having one of the best reliever seasons of all-time and he's doing it for a contending team playing a ton of high-leverage games. It's disingenuous to call Britton "just a reliever." He's a game-changing force out of the bullpen.
Now that the Blue Jays are using a six-man rotation and keeping Sanchez as a starter, his AL Cy Young odds have increased substantially. Getting shut down and moved to the bullpen late in the season would have really taken a bite out of his candidacy. Sanchez, who in his first full season as a starter, has the league's best strikeout/ground ball combination ability, so while he's eighth in WAR (3.7), he's third in ERA (2.84) and third in FIP (3.24). It's likely he will not reach 200 innings (or even 190), which will work against him. Voters like to see quantity and quality.
Vintage Verlander returned in early May. He has a 2.86 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his last 13 starts and 88 innings, and a 1.78 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in his last eight starts and 55.2 innings. Although he is not top 10 in the AL in ERA (3.42), that number is quickly coming down. Verlander is second in strikeouts (170), third in innings (160 1/3), and fourth in WAR (4.2) among all AL hurlers. If he continues pitching like he has through the end of the season, he'll have a very good case for his second AL Cy Young award.
I feel like Hamels often goes overlooked when discussing the greatest pitchers of his generation. He's clearly behind Clayton Kershaw (everyone is), but his overall body of work is right up there with Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, and David Price. Anyway, Hamels is second in the AL in WAR (4.8), which is the kind of thing that happens when you have a top five ERA (2.88) in 153 1/3 innings with a hitter friendly home ballpark. Ho hum. Hamels is having another excellent season.
At this point Quintana is no longer underrated, right? He was a first-time All-Star this season and he's currently top ten in the AL in just about every significant category, including WAR (4.6, 3rd), ERA (2.85, 4th), FIP (3.24, 6th), WHIP (1.10, 8th), innings (151 2/3, 10th), and strikeouts (133, 10th). Chris Sale understandably gets the spotlight in Chicago, but Quintana has been excellent. He's a very real Cy Young candidate.
Sale opened the season with a 9-0 record in his first nine starts, but he's gone only 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 14 starts since. The good news is those first nine starts still count, which is why Sale is still among the AL top seven in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), innings (160 2/3), strikeouts (157), and WAR (3.9). I feel like Sale is destined to be his generation's Mike Mussina, meaning the pitcher who is consistently excellent each season, but never wins a Cy Young award. He's finished in the top six of the voting in each of the last four years.
Here's a fun fact: over the last 365 days, Happ ranks third among all pitchers in WAR. He's behind Jake Arrieta (9.7) and Kershaw (8.8), and tied with Madison Bumgarner (7.2). This season Happ leads the league with 16 wins and is top ten in ERA (2.96) and ERA+ (143). He is not, however, among the league top ten in WAR (3.4) or innings (143). Whatever the Pirates did to Happ following the trade deadline last season has carried over into 2016. He's been excellent.
Fulmer came over from the Mets in the Yoenis Cespedes trade last year and he currently leads all pitchers with 5.1 WAR. Every single one, AL and NL. I'm not joking. He also leads the AL with a 2.25 ERA, which is more than half-a-run better than everyone else. So why isn't Fulmer atop this list? Because he's thrown only 120 innings after starting the season in minors.
Fulmer barely qualifies for the ERA title -- he will temporarily no longer qualify once the Tigers play their 121st game on Thursday, then he'll re-qualify when he makes his next start on Friday -- and he's a good 30-40 innings behind the other serious Cy Young contenders. As great as he's been on a rate basis, the lack of bulk innings is going to hurt Fulmer's Cy Young chances.
Wright led the AL in ERA for much of the first half, and he is still top ten in ERA (3.01), ERA+ (143), and FIP (3.38). The Red Sox did just place the knuckleballer on the DL with a shoulder problem, however. The missed time is going to cost him innings and make him fall behind in the Cy Young race. Hopefully Wright comes back quickly and finishes strong. If he doesn't, his Cy Young candidacy takes a huge hit.
Yes, I also see you: Dellin Betances, Yankees; Brad Brach, Orioles; Danny Duffy, Royals; Marco Estrada, Blue Jays; Andrew Miller, Yankees/Indians; Rick Porcello, Red Sox; Danny Salazar, Indians; Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees; Chris Tillman, Orioles
