AL MVP power rankings: Jose Altuve over Mike Trout?

Who would win AL MVP if voting were held now?

With seven weeks remaining until the postseason, it's time to begin previewing the most harmonious time of the year: awards season. Here, we'll size up the AL MVP race. For those interested in the NL MVP Power Rankings, Matt Snyder has you covered here.

Before we delve in, remember that these rankings are not representative of our ballots. Rather, this is an as-things-stand best guess based on entrails readings of past award seasons. Got it? Good.

Because we're incorporating perceived voter tendencies, that means we're not just listing players in order of their WAR(P) totals. You might not like that a team's won-lost record or a player's RBI total is likely to impact ballots. But we can all agree that it has and will continue to do so for the time being.

AL MVP Power Rankings

The argument for Altuve goes like this: he's comparable or superior to Trout in every meaningful offensive category, and he plays on a better team. Altuve entered Sunday ahead in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+, and stolen bases -- and was just 0.2 wins behind in Baseball-Reference's WAR. Yes, park factors matter, but what's more likely: that voters ding Altuve for his ballpark, or that voters ding Trout for playing on a worse team? We'll bet on the latter.

We know, we know, we know. Trout is the best player in baseball. Trout is not the reason the Angels are where they are in the standings -- he is, however, the reason they aren't the worst team in the AL. Again though, voters have shown a willingness to hold the Angels' record against Trout throughout his career, and there's little reason to think that'll change now -- not when Altuve's raw numbers are better.

Potentially your future AL MVP. USATSI

The reigning MVP, Donaldson entered Sunday with a higher OPS+ than he had in 2015. Donaldson gets the nod over Manny Machado despite similar home run and RBI totals due to his park-adjusted figures. That doesn't mean voters will agree to use those numbers as the tiebreaker, of course. But you can basically slot these two in as you'd like and you can't go wrong.

Here's a scary thought: Machado keeps getting better. He's improved upon his average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage this season, and has done so while splitting time between shortstop and third base. As we discussed above, you can rank Machado higher without much argument. For now, we're putting him fourth -- or right where he finished last winter.

The problem with ranking Ortiz is it's impossible to know whether voters will award him extra credit for performing this way in his final season. Ortiz has finished top-five in MVP voting multiple times in the past, and we're placing him here -- ahead of his younger, highly impressive teammates -- because our gut feel is that he will receive bonus points for leadership and all the intangibles jazz.

You can make a compelling case that Betts ought to be higher than Ortiz. He plays a defensive position, after all, and ranks fourth in Baseball-Reference's WAR. Yet, as mentioned above, we're betting on Ortiz gaining special consideration due to his circumstances. Is that fair to Betts -- or even teammate Xander Bogaerts? Probably not. But that's MVP voting for you.

There's a distinct possibility that Encarnacion leads the AL in both home runs and RBI come year's end. If so, he's likely to get a boost from voters who like to reward offensive performance, even if it means ignoring defensive value. You can move Encarnacion down the list a few spots if you're not one of those kinds, but he's darn near certain to finish higher than his previous career-best (11th, in 2012).

Can you believe Correa won't turn 22 for another month? He's turned in a highly productive first full season, to the extent that -- again, depending on how you judge his defense and how you weigh positional adjustments and the like -- he could well inch closer to the top-five. For now, we're parking him here, with the expectation that he'll make his big move up the ballots next winter.

An MVP-consideration-worthy smile. USATSI

It's an open secret: Lindor's all-around precociousness turns everyone who watches him into a dork. For us, that's reason enough to give him the Indians-based nod over Mike Napoli -- though Napoli is having a really fine season himself. If Correa is the prince of shortstops, then Lindor is the duke. Chronicle this winter's ballot, folks, because these two should finish higher in the coming years.

Here's the truth: there are a ton of players you can slot in here. We're going with Trumbo because he has a lot of home runs, a lot of runs batted in, and he plays on a surprisingly good team. He doesn't deserve as much credit for the O's success as Machado does, but that's enough to earn him this spot over a number of other worthy downballot candidates -- including Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager.

Yes, I also see you: Robinson Cano, Mariners; Kyle Seager, Mariners; Ian Desmond, Rangers; J.A. Happ, Blue Jays; Cole Hamels, Rangers; Adrian Beltre, Rangers; Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays; Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox.