AL Rookie of the Year Power Rankings: Yankees' Gary Sanchez closing the gap late
Can Gary Sanchez steal the Rookie of the Year despite his late call-up?
By
Mike Axisa
•
3 min read
There are fewer than two weeks remaining in the 2016 regular season, so the various postseason races are beginning to take on a final shape. While there's still time for things to change, it's always fun to discuss how the individual awards races are going to shake out. Let's do exactly that and examine the AL Rookie of the Year race as it stands at this late hour.
Before we dive in, let's point out that our awards power rankings posts are not our predictions or even necessarily how we would vote. These are intended to provide a snapshot of where things stand at the moment, and we're making subjective judgments on how the vote could turn out based on recent historical voting tendencies. Let's dive into the AL Rookie of the Year race.
Michael Fulmer is not only the Rookie of the Year favorite, he's also a legitimate Cy Young candidate. If he weren't four outs short of qualifying for the ERA title, he would rank second in the league in ERA and sixth in WHIP (1.08). Fulmer leads all rookie pitchers in WAR and it's not close either.
The fact Fulmer has spent most of the season in the big leagues -- he debuted on April 29 and has made 24 starts and thrown 148 2/3 innings -- is going to help his case too. Simply put, Fulmer has provided more value to his team than any other rookie this season. He's stepped right into the rotation and performed at a near ace-level for the Tigers.
A few weeks ago the "can Gary Sanchez win the Rookie of the Year?" talk sounded silly. He was molten hot, but it was also only a handful of games, and eventually he would cool down, right? Well, no. That hasn't happened. Sanchez has raked since being inserted into the everyday lineup soon after the trade deadline and there's no indication he's about to slow down. He hit a big go-ahead home run Monday night:
If Sanchez plays every single game the rest of the season, he'll finish with 54 games played. The fewest games played by a Rookie of the Year position player is 52 by Willie McCovey with the 1959 Giants. Next fewest? Eighty-eight by Ryan Howard in 2005. Sanchez winning Rookie of the Year with so few games would not be unprecedented, but would be extremely rare.
At the moment Sanchez is second among AL rookies in home runs and third in WAR. He actually leads all AL rookies in the FanGraphs version of WAR, edging out Fulmer (2.9 vs. 2.7). Sanchez's performance has been undeniably great, but has he played enough to earn serious consideration? I believe the majority of the voters will answer that question with a yes.
The difference between Sanchez and Tyler Naquin is playing time. Naquin has nearly twice as many plate appearances, so while he got off to an incredible start like Sanchez, he's had a chance to cool off. There's not enough time for the league to adjust to Sanchez and bring his numbers back to Earth like they have with Naquin the last few weeks. It's a Catch-22. The extra playing time is generally good, but it also hurts Naquin's Rookie of the Year candidacy because his numbers don't look as excellent as they did a few weeks ago.
At this point, most of the other AL Rookie of the Year candidates are corner outfielders with comparable offensive numbers to Tim Anderson, who is doing it as a shortstop. A good defensive shortstop at that. Anderson's plate discipline is a work in progress -- he has a 105/12 K/BB in 88 games -- though he's given the White Sox some power and speed in addition to shoring up the defense. Anderson may not win Rookie of the Year, but he's a fine young player.
Dylan Bundy is still Rookie of the Year eligible despite making his MLB debut way back in 2012. He's limping to the finish line -- Bundy has a 6.62 ERA in his last seven starts, during which opponents are hitting .286/.387/.529 -- but his overall body of work is solid. That fact he's been in the big leagues since Opening Day is only going to help his Rookie of the Year case.
Honorable Mentions: Alex Bregman, Astros; Cheslor Cuthbert, Royals; Chris Devenski, Astros; Edwin Diaz, Mariners; Max Kepler, Twins; Hyun Soo Kim, Orioles; Nomar Mazara, Rangers.
