Handicapping the NL playoff race based upon each contender's remaining schedule

A team-by-team look at what's ahead for each contender

With less than four weeks to go, you could make a case for 15 different teams as contenders, all of them within five games of a playoff spot. The number of variables in play, though, is mind-boggling. Everything from team talent to health to strength of schedule to dumb luck could end up deciding postseason races -- doubly so with so few games left to play.

The good news is ... we have the technology. We can break down all those contenders, weigh all the factors that could make or break their seasons, and handicap their chances.

So let's just do exactly that! Today, we'll look at the playoff chasers in the National League, ranked from most to least likely to dance in October. Tomorrow, the American League.

Chicago Cubs
Lead NL Central by 15 1/2 games
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 9 of 24

A division title has been a lock for weeks, and home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs might as well be, with the Cubs leading the Nationals by eight games. Expect mad scientist Joe Maddon to take full advantage of that cushion, giving his regulars ample rest down the stretch and cooking up playing time for his reserves and lesser pitchers to keep them sharp heading into the postseason.

Given how much time Tommy La Stella missed as he contemplated retirement in the middle of the season, the lefty-swinging utilityman in particular could use a few starts down the stretch. At .282/.373/.436 this season, he's a potentially potent bench bat for October.

Washington Nationals
Lead NL East by 8 1/2 games
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 3 of 24

Like the Mets last season, this year's Nationals have been both good and a little bit lucky, getting to feast on the dregs of the NL East; a rest-of-season schedule that throws in the awful Diamondbacks and the swooning Pirates on top of lots of hot Braves, Phillies, and Marlins action seems almost unfair.

Trea Turner ranks as one of the best in-season additions for any team in years, batting .344/.362/.541 with 21 steals, playing stellar defense in center field while filling the team's biggest hole, and rating as more valuable in 49 games than players like Carlos Gonzalez and Giancarlo Stanton were all season ( per Wins Above Replacement). Pretty phenomenal trade, Mike Rizzo.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Lead NL West by 4 games
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 9 of 24

Remember all that head-scratching over the Dodgers' ability to vault into first place, despite a roster riddled with injuries -- including a trauma ward of a rotation that was missing the best pitcher on the planet? Credit Corey Seager's near-MVP-caliber season, the Giants improbably posting the worst record in the league after the All-Star break, and the Dodgers making good on their vow to win with depth, data, and youth.

That best pitcher on the planet is slated to return from his back injury on Friday. If Clayton Kershaw can resume his dominant form quickly, the Dodgers become overwhelming favorites to hang on in the West, and a much scarier team to face in the playoffs. (For the snark patrol ready to jump on Clayton Kershaw's playoff failures, remember that over time, the cream usually rises.)

St. Louis Cardinals
Lead 2nd wild-card spot by 1 game, trail 1st wild-card spot by 1/2 game
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 9 of 24

The aggregate winning percentage of the Cards' remaining opponents sits solidly above .500, thanks primarily to a slate of six remaining games against the Cubs. Three of those six games don't happen until Sept 23-25, when the North Siders will have pretty much certainly clinched the division title, which could prompt the Cubs to play a bunch of second stringers as a result (granted, the Cubs' bench jockeys may well be better than the starters on some of the league's worst teams, but it's still a potential break for St. Louis).

As for the Cardinals themselves, they might simply bash their way back to the playoffs. Last Wednesday, they set a new franchise record by blasting a home run in their 20th straight game. Six days later, they set a new all-time major league record by clubbing their 15th pinch-hit homer of the season -- a big one by Matt Carpenter that keyed a dramatic ninth-inning rally to beat the Pirates. As the Cubs showed when they knocked the Cardinals out of last year's playoffs in the NLDS, winning the Central guarantees nothing once October starts.

San Francisco Giants
Lead 1st wild-card spot by 1/2 game
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 10 of 24

It's tough to win when you can't hit. At 17-31, the Giants own the worst record in the league since the All-Star break. They also rank 29th in runs scored over that span, batting a collective .242/.312/.378, with just 3.8 runs scored per game.

Name a Giant and there's a good chance he's struggled badly since the break. Hunter Pence missed almost all of June and July with a hamstring injury and had a rough time of it since then: Batting .236/.288/.350 is bad, being so unlucky that he fouled a ball off his face soon after returning from the DL, even worse. Brandon Belt's numbers since All-Star? .200/.338/.338. Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey? .253/.304/.421 and .277/.363/.361, with just four combined home runs. Key reserves like Gregor Blanco (now on the DL) have been similarly punchless too.

The Giants rely heavily on their starting pitching, and they'll need strong performances like Jeff Samardzija's seven innings of two-run, nine-strikeout ball Tuesday night at Coors Field to complement dual Cy Young candidates Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Still, with the Mets and Cardinals coming on strong, a playoff spot is far from assured ... even in an #EvenYear.

New York Mets
Trail second wild-card spot by 1 game
Remaining games vs. teams above .500: 3 of 23

Two conflicting forces figure to decide the Mets' season. One one hand, you have arguably the easiest remaining schedule for any contender, with the Mets waiting on seven games with the Phillies, six with the Braves, three with the Twins, and one more today against the lowly Reds. On the other hand, the team's injured list looks like a 60-car pileup, with two would-be members of the starting rotation out for the season, two others fighting to come back from injuries, and three-fourths of the infield also gone for the year.

The team's fate may well rest on two out-of-nowhere rookie right-handers. Seth Lugo was a 34th-round pick from tiny Centenary College in Louisiana, pitched poorly there, struggled with injuries when he somehow made it to pro ball anyway, and even at the best of times throws an unimpressive low-90s fastball that wouldn't seem likely to cut it in the big leagues. But thanks to an incredible curveball that spins more than any other in the game, he's been a force for the Mets, posting a three-to-one strikeout-to-walk rate and allowing just two homers and a 2.38 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched. Fellow right-handed freshman Robert Gsellman was a 13th-rounder in the same draft who likewise wasn't on many prospect hounds' radars even as he advanced through the minors. But it doesn't get much bigger than the six innings of one-run ball he fired at the first-place Nats on Saturday, a series that saw the Mets take two out of three, allowing just six total runs over those three games.

With Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler gone 'til next year and Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz both rehabbing from arm injuries, the Mets have no choice but to roll with Lugo and Gsellman, and hope those two, plus a patchwork lineup, are enough to make it work. When it comes to the Mets of recent vintage, stranger things have happened.