McCutchen, Davis among great would-be free agents this year

The 2015-16 free agent class is the best we've seen in years. There was both high-end talent and depth, so much so that many quality players remain unsigned today, in the middle of January. It's been a while since we've seen a free agent class this good.

Of course, this free agent class could have been even better. Several big name players would have become free agents this offseason had they not signed long-term extensions earlier in their careers. They opted to delay free agency and trade their maximum earning potential for a guaranteed payday early in their careers. Hey, I don't blame them.

Players need six full years of service time to qualify for free agency in MLB. Eight players reached that service time level in 2015 while signed to multiyear extensions, preventing them from hitting the open market this offseason. Here are those eight players who missed out on free agency this winter, ranked subjectively.

1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates

Very easy call for the top spot. The Pirates called McCutchen up in June 2009, so he reached six years of service time in June 2015. The team wisely locked him up to a six-year, $51.5 million extension in March 2012.

Rather than hit free agency this offseason, McCutchen will earn $13 million in 2016 and $14 million in 2017 per the terms of his contract. The deal also includes a $14.75 million club option for 2018, which is a total no-brainer for the Pirates. Expect that to be exercised.

Had he not signed that extension and instead become a free agent this winter, McCutchen would have been the best player on the market. He's a prime age (turned 29 in October) superstar who has been one of the best players in baseball the last four seasons.

McCutchen has hit .313/.404/.523 (157 OPS+) since 2012 while averaging 25 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and 6.6 WAR per season. He was named the 2013 NL MVP and he has three other top four finishes in the voting to his credit. And he's a five-time all-star.

Make no mistake, McCutchen is very much on the Hall of Fame track. If not for Mike Trout, McCutchen would be talked about as the best player in the world. He's a great player and he's ultra-likeable. This guy is everything a team wants in a franchise player, on and off the field.

The going rate for an elite player these days is north of $30 million a year. In no way would it have been inappropriate for McCutchen and his agent Steve Hammond to demand that level of salary in contract talks had he hit free agency this offseason, as originally scheduled.

The Cubs stand out as a team that could have made a run at McCutchen had he become a free agent. Jason Heyward's really good and he's very young, but he's no McCutchen. I think the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Tigers, and Nationals and would have been all over him.

2. Wade Davis, Royals

Arguably the best reliever in baseball signed a contract extension back when he was a middling starter. Davis, who reached six years of service time in September, signed a four-year deal worth $12.6 million back in March 2011, when he was still with the Rays.

The four years covered by the contract were 2011-14. The Royals exercised a $7 million club option last offseason, allowing them to keep Davis in 2015. They exercised an $8 million club option earlier this offseason and will have him in 2016 too. The contract also includes a $10 million club option for 2017 as well. That's close to a lock to be picked up.

Since moving into the bullpen full-time two years ago, the 30-year-old Davis owns a 0.97 ERA (418 ERA+) with a 0.82 WHIP in 139 1/3 innings. He's struck out 187 and walked only 43. Davis has also allowed only one run in 25 postseason innings the last two years while striking out 38. Oh, and he closed out the 2015 World Series too. Kind of a big deal.

The free agent reliever market was very weak this offseason. Davis would have been the No. 1 guy by a significant margin. I think there's a chance Davis would have set a new reliever contract this record had he become a free agent. The current record is Jonathan Papelbon's four-year, $50M deal with the Phillies.

Which teams would have been interested? Well, all of them. Realistically, the Red Sox, Giants, Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, and Mariners seem like clubs that would have made a serious run at Davis had he become a free agent this offseason.

3. Alcides Escobar, Royals

The top two spots are pretty obvious. Escobar gets the nod in the third spot because quality shortstops are so very hard to find. Despite hitting .257/.293/.320 (68 OPS+) in 2015, I think the 29-year-old Escobar would have edged out Ian Desmond as the top shortstop free agent.

Escobar reached six years of service time at midseason. He inked a four-year extension worth $10.5 million back in March 2012. Those four years have expired, though the contract also includes two club options: $5.25 million for 2016 and $6.5 million for 2017. Kansas City exercised the 2016 option earlier this winter.

Over the last four years Escobar has solidified himself as a defense-first shortstop -- he's hit .267/.300/.346 (77 OPS+) since 2012 -- with a knack for stepping up in big moments. He's a career .311/.326/.467 hitter in the postseason and was named 2015 ALCS MVP.

A total of 6.8 WAR from 2012-15 won't wow anyone, but position scarcity would have worked in Escobar's favor. Quality shortstops are always in demand. The Nationals, Pirates, Mets, White Sox, and Angels all could have gotten involved had Escobar become a free agent. And, of course, the Royals as well.

I don't think Escobar would have matched Jhonny Peralta's four-year, $53 million contract this offseason. Something between Omar Infante's contract (four years, $30.25 million) and Peralta's contract seems more appropriate. So, say, four years and $40 million? Either way, it would have been lots more than the $11.75 million Escobar will earn the next two years.

4. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals

Gonzalez's free agency could have been really fascinating. This was a deep free agent pitching class, and he wouldn't have been at the David Price/Zack Greinke level. Probably not the Johnny Cueto/Jordan Zimmermann level either. But the Jeff Samardzija/Mike Leake level? Oh yeah.

After being traded to the Nationals four years ago, Gonzalez immediately signed a five-year extension worth $42 million. The 2016 season is the final guaranteed year on the deal, though it includes a $12 million club option for 2017 and a $12 million vesting option for 2018.

Look at his run prevention numbers, and you'd think Gonzalez is in decline. Check it out:

2012: 2.89 ERA
2013: 3.36 ERA
2014: 3.57 ERA
2015: 3.79 ERA

Sabermetric measures like Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, have held relatively steady in recent years despite the increasing ERA. Gonzalez has started to use a little sinker that helped him post a career high ground ball rate in 2015 (53.8 percent), which could help him stave off any further decline.

Gonzalez is still only 30 years old, and I think teams would have looked at him almost like they looked at Samardzija, as a veteran guy who offered some upside. Gio's had some really strong years in his career. Samardzija's five-year, $90 million deal seems like a reasonable landing point here.

5. Rick Porcello, Red Sox

The Red Sox acquired Porcello from the Tigers last offseason and locked him up to a four-year contract extension worth $82.5 million shortly thereafter. That deal didn't kick in right away -- 2016 is the first season covered by the contract -- so Porcello is still four years from free agency.

Porcello turned 27 last month and he would have been one of the youngest free agents on the market this winter. People have been waiting for him to break out for a few years now, and it looked like it was about to happen after Porcello put up a 3.43 ERA (113 ERA+) in 2014.

Instead, his performance suffered in Boston last year, and Porcello finished the season with a 4.92 ERA (87 ERA+). He did, however, post a career high strikeout rate (7.8 K/9). At the same time, his 45.7 percent ground ball rate was a career low. Porcello remains something of a mystery.

There is obviously a lot of money in baseball these days, and Porcello would have been paid handsomely as a free agent this offseason thanks to his age. Would he have topped the four-year, $82.5 million contract he actually signed? That's an interesting question.

Porcello seems like he would have been a good candidate for a three or four-year contract that included an opt-out after year one, similar to Scott Kazmir's deal with the Dodgers. That would have allowed Porcello to re-enter free agency next offseason, when the pitching crop is expected to be very weak.

6. Derek Holland, Rangers

Believe it or not, Holland is still only 29 years old. It feels like he's been around forever. Holland would have become a free agent this winter had he not signed a five-year, $28.5 million extension back in March 2012. The contract also includes two club options covering the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

Knee and shoulder injuries have limited Holland to only 95 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, during which he's managed a 3.67 ERA (116 ERA+). Prior to that he averaged 195 1/3 innings a year from 2011-13. The injuries certainly would have complicated Holland's free agency this offseason.

The Dodgers gave Brett Anderson a one-year contract worth $10 million last offseason after injuries limited him to only 206 1/3 innings from 2011-14. I think Holland would have been in line for a similar contract this offseason. He did finish 2015 healthy, which is encouraging, and a one-year deal would have allowed him to test the market in a thin free agent pitching class at age 30 next year.

7. Jonathon Niese, Pirates

Niese, 29, is coming off his worst season in several years, pitching to a 4.13 ERA (89 ERA+) in 176 2/3 innings. He averaged a 3.49 ERA (103 ERA+) and 173 2/3 innings per season from 2012-14. Niese was traded to Pittsburgh earlier this offseason because the Mets had no place for him in their great young rotation.

The Mets signed Niese to a five-year contract worth $25 million back in April 2012. He'll make $9 million in 2016, the final guaranteed year on the deal, before club options for 2017 ($10 million) and 2018 ($11 million) come into play.

Niese has dealt with some nagging injuries over the years but has generally established himself as a rock solid mid-rotation innings-eater. Those guys have a lot of value. Reliability is underrated. Teams also look for starters they can safely project for 150-plus innings.

Kazmir's three-year, $48 million deal with the Dodgers might have been a little rich for Niese had he become a free agent this winter. Something like $12 million a year for three years may have been more appropriate.

8. Cameron Maybin, Tigers

Maybin, who is still only 28, has had a very up and down career. He inked a five-year extension worth $25 million with the Padres four years ago, following what appeared to be a breakout 2011 season (103 OPS+).

In the four years since, Maybin has hit .247/.308/.349 (89 OPS+) overall, though he did rebound to put up a .267/.327/.370 (95 OPS+) batting line with the Braves in 2015. Strong center field defense makes him a 1-2 WAR player or so.

There were a lot of quality free agent outfielders on the market this offseason, so much so that players like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Dexter Fowler remain unsigned in the middle of January. Maybin is not close to being on the same level as those guys though.

The market for Maybin would have been closely tied to Austin Jackson, and things have been pretty quite with Jackson this offseason. This is one of those rare cases where the player is probably better off financially with his extension than he would have been as a free agent.

Honorable mention goes out to Royals right-hander Kris Medlen. He reached six years of service time during the 2015 season, though he's already been a free agent. The Braves non-tendered him last offseason following his second Tommy John surgery. Medlen then signed a two-year deal worth $8.5 million with Kansas City, which is why he didn't become a free agent this winter.