MLB Hot Stove 2016-17: Is this the year of the $100 million reliever?

After a postseason in which relievers reached new prominence, it's possible

Among the many storylines of the 2016 postseason was the return of the "relief ace." The relief ace is a pitcher every bit as dominant as the best closers, but he's a more adaptable sort. Rather than pitch in strictly in accordance with the save rule, he enters the game when circumstances demand. Those circumstances usually entail a tight game with the heart of the opposing order at the plate. Often, the relief ace works multiple innings.

This October (and for a slice of November), that was increasingly the model for lock-down relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. To be sure, this approach wasn't invented by Terry Francona, and, really, he's not solely responsible for its revival. It's also not something sustainable over a full regular season. This postseason has, however, shown us how valuable elite relievers can be in a short series and with the frequent rest that the playoffs afford. Over the course of the regular season, a great starting pitcher is still more valuable than a great reliever. Once the calendar flips, though, the relief ace's ability to concentrate those high-leverage innings and to get five, six, seven or more outs in multiple games narrows the gap. This winter, the market just might reflect that notion.

Most teams with a high likelihood of making the playoffs in 2017 and beyond and don't already have an elite reliever in the fold will be in on the likes of Chapman, Jansen and Mark Melancon, each of whom is a free agent this offseason. That raises the tantalizing possibility that we'll see baseball's first $100 million relief pitcher.

The current record contract for a reliever is the $50 million pact fetched by Jonathan Papelbon in November of 2011. So, yes, we're talking about the prospect of doubling that figure. Still, we're talking about four offseasons of inflation, and we're also talking that new (or, rather, rediscovered) bullpen paradigm noted above. There's also the fact that this year's crop of free agent starting pitchers is comically weak. Teams are always spoiling for pitching, so some of that demand may transfer onto the relief market. Also recall that, thanks in part to skyrocketing local media revenues, most teams are overloaded with cash right now.

As for the pitchers in question, Chapman and Jansen seem much more likely to fetch nine figures than Melancon. To be sure, Melancon is a terrific relief pitcher and has been for some time. However, he's going into his age-32 season and lacks the bat-missing dominance of Chapman and Jansen (to be fair, pretty much everyone lacks the bat-missing dominance of Chapman and Jansen). So it says here that Melancon's next contract won't be worth as much as Chapman's or Jansen's.

In Jansen's favor is that his cutter is one of the most dominant single pitches in all of baseball. He just recently turned 29, and for his career he's registered an ERA+ of 169 while striking out almost 40 percent of opposing batters. Those numbers have been even stronger in recent years. Perhaps adding to his appeal is that Jansen, since he started out as a catcher, logged just 70 innings in the minors, so presumably there's not all that much wear and tear on his arm.

And there's the flexibility he showed during the Dodgers' playoff run. Of his seven appearances, just two lasted one inning or less. Three times, however, he went at least two innings, and in Game 6 of the NLCS he went three innings. In other words, Jansen seems capable of fitting the playoff relief ace mold.

Chapman is the other $100 million threat. He's the most dominant reliever in the game today, and he's probably the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball history. For his career, he's rung up 636 strikeouts in 377 innings while pitching to an ERA+ of 192. He's also still on the right side of age 30.

Early in the playoffs, we were treated to storylines about Chapman's preference for rigid usage. As the Cubs went deeper and deeper, though, Chapman proved those doubts were unfounded. He wound up making 13 appearances during the 2016 playoffs, and in seven of them he entered before the ninth inning. In five of those games, he pitched more than one inning. If not for his 46-pitch, 2-2/3-inning effort in Game 5 of the World Series, the Cubs probably aren't champions. So, yes, we're talking about another potential playoff relief ace.

That dominance and October adaptability make Jansen and Chapman potential $100 million relievers. Working against Jansen will be the fact that he was made a qualifying offer by the Dodgers, and thus the team that signs him must forfeit a high draft pick. That's not the case with Chapman, who, because he was traded in-season, was not eligible for a qualifying offer. Of course, the fact that Chapman was suspended under baseball's domestic violence policy to start the season could work against his market.

In the end, Jansen and Chapman seem likely to top $90 million this winter. I'll hedge and say neither gets quite to $100 million, but I'll also say that Chapman comes the closest and winds up north of $95 million (the Yankees are already in, you know). The safe bet on free agent pitching, though, is always guess higher than you think. So perhaps you should start wrapping your head around the notion of the $100 million relief pitcher.