MLB Trade Deadline: How Lucroy, Beltran fit with the new and improved Rangers
With their deadline dealings, the Rangers addressed two holes in the lineup
Here's the lineup that Rangers manager Jeff Banister trotted out for Sunday's game against the Royals (an eventual win for Texas) ...
7/31 @Rangers lineup vs KC
— MLB Lineups (@mlblineups) July 31, 2016
DeShields CF
Mazara RF
Profar SS
Beltre DH
Odor 2B
Moreland 1B
Rua LF
Chirinos C
Alberto 3B
Harrell P
That's not bad, necessarily, but it could be improved upon. Speaking of improved upon, Rangers GM Jon Daniels was quite busy on Monday in advance of the trade deadline. The team is off Monday, but here's what Banister's Tuesday lineup against the Orioles might look like ...
- Jurickson Profar, LF
- Ian Desmond, CF
- Carlos Beltran, DH
- Adrian Beltre, 3B
- Rougned Odor, 2B
- Jonathan Lucroy, C
- Mitch Moreland, 1B
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Nomar Mazara, RF
Something like that. In any event, we'll agree that this one looks substantially better. Driving that improvement are, of course, Beltran and Lucroy, who are of course the the most notable of those aforementioned deadline additions. At present, the Rangers are tied for fourth in the AL in runs scored, which is obviously a respectable ranking. However, when it comes to Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+), an advanced metric that measures all phases of production at the plate and adjusts them for ballpark and league environments, the Rangers rank just 10th in the AL. The problem is that wRC+ is better at predicting future runs scored numbers than runs scored itself is. In other words, the Rangers needed improvement in the lineup. Beltran in particular addresses a glaring weakness.
Texas designated hitters this season have combined to bat a paltry.223/.305/.349, which when compared to average DH line of .248/.323/442 is revealed to be unacceptable (and bear in mind that those Texas DH numbers are dragging down the average). Chiefly, this has been the fault of Prince Fielder, who struggled badly before being slated for season-ending neck surgery.
While anything can happen in the short run, Beltran will almost certainly improve upon those numbers by a wide margin. This season, he's batting .304/.344/.546 with 22 homers. Moving forward, the ZiPS projection system available at FanGraphs tabs Beltran for a line of .272/.325/.475. There's some regression baked in for the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer (yes, I'm calling him a future Hall of Famer because I choose to believe our universe is occasionally a just one), but even if that's the case he's going to comfortably outstrip what the Rangers are accustomed to from their designated hitters.
On the catching front, Lucroy is of course a skilled pitch-framer behind the plate, and at the plate he's among the best at his position. This season, he's batting .299/.359/.482, and over the last half-decade he's authored an OPS+ of 120. That's excellent production, especially by catcher standards. Speaking of catcher standards, thus far in 2016 Texas backstops have combined to hit .233/.287/.422. Obviously, Lucroy is a good bet to exceed those numbers by a wide margin. Also, recent history suggests there's not much to worry about when it comes to giving your pitching staff a new catcher during the middle of the season.
Also, the Yankees are paying half of Beltran's remaining salary, so that means the Rangers are paying out just $4 million or so to add Beltran and Lucroy to the lineup. That's a very modest outlay given the likely gains involved.
More generally, the Rangers' run differential and outcomes at the plate appearance level suggest they've over-performed to date. Yes, their semi-comfortable lead in the AL West makes them favorites to reach the postseason, but credit to the front office for realizing that improvements were warranted. Improvements are exactly what they got on Monday.
















