MLB Trade Deadline Rumor Buy or Sell: Are the Indians ready to make a big move?
The Indians may be willing to make a blockbuster trade at the deadline
By
Mike Axisa
•
3 min read
Welcome to Rumor Buy or Sell. The trade deadline is less than two weeks away now, so between now and then we'll pick apart the juiciest rumors and determine whether they pass the sniff test, or are just typical trade deadline noise.
Rumor: The sense among rival clubs is the Indians are more willing to make a big blockbuster trade at the deadline than they have been in the past, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Rival execs have the sense #Indians are more inclined to shoot the moon on an Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman than they typically would.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 19, 2016
The Indians have a clear need for late-inning bullpen help, preferably left-handed. They could also look for another catcher in the wake of the Yan Gomes injury, and I suppose outfield help could be considered depending on Michael Brantley's health.
Background: Even with Monday night's crushing loss (KC 7, CLE 3), the Indians come into Tuesday with the AL's best record (54-38) and a healthy 5 1/2-game lead in the AL Central. SportsLine puts their postseason odds at a comfortable 98.4 percent. If you want a second opinion, FanGraphs puts Cleveland's postseason odds at 91.7 percent, easily the highest in the AL.
Now, that said, the Indians have worked closer Cody Allen and setup man Bryan Shaw pretty hard this season. Shaw has appeared in 44 games, fifth most in the AL, and Allen's not too far behind with 39 appearances. That's tied for 23rd most in the league. Those two are only going to be appear in more and more games down the stretch and into September. The Indians want to make sure they're not fatigued for the postseason too, remember.
Furthermore, the Indians have gotten only 22 relief innings from lefty relievers this year. That's it. They don't have a trusted late-inning left-on-left matchup guy -- someone manager Terry Francona would feel comfortable sending out there against, say, David Ortiz in a postseason game. Someone like Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman would certainly fill that role well. They would be the late-inning lefty and help lighten the load on Shaw and Allen.
Clubs usually don't trade for a catcher at midseason -- learning a new pitching staff on the fly during a pennant race can be tough -- but the Gomes injury creates an opening. Jonathan Lucroy would be the ideal fit. The Indians have a fantastic farm system -- they landed seven players on Baseball America's midseason top 100 prospects list -- so they can swing a blockbuster trade of any size. They have the trade chips.
Buy or Sell? Definitely buying. The Indians have been to the postseason once since 2007, and that was a wholly unsatisfying wild-card loss to the Rays in 2013. They don't just want to get to October this year. They want to win the World Series, and they have the talent to do that.
Keep in mind this might be Cleveland's best chance to win with this current group, while key members of their rotation are cheap and core players like Brantley, Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis are in their primes. That isn't to say they can't contend in the future. They certainly can. But look at the Mets. They made the World Series last year and are struggling to stay in the race this year. If this is indeed the Indians' best chance to win with this group, they want to put themselves in the best possible position to do so.
Also, this suggests the Indians are serious about pursing Chapman or Miller, likely Miller because he's willing to pitch in a setup role and is under contract through 2018:
Cleveland lefty Justus Sheffield 91-95 in the first at Wilmington but he walked 3. Yankees have two guys here to see him, Bobby Bradley, etc
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) July 19, 2016
Teams scout everyone, but sending two scouts to see a top prospect is not routine coverage. The Yankees have multiple sets of eyes on Justus Sheffield likely because they've gotten serious inquires from the Indians, and want to make sure they do their homework.
The Indians have a great rotation and the offense is comfortably above-average. The bullpen is good but they could definitely use another late-inning arm, preferably a southpaw. They have the pieces to pull a blockbuster trade and the motivation to do so. They don't want to miss an opportunity to do something special with this group.
