Ranking the chances 2016's 10 also-rans turn things around in 2017
The Padres and Angels are nigh hopeless, but who could have a path to the playoffs ahead?
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6 min read
The regular season has just six weeks remaining, meaning the upcoming playoffs are going to receive more and more attention as the days pass. Unfortunately, for some fan bases, the postseason is an unattainable goal: 10 teams entered Saturday at least 10 games out of a playoff spot.
To give those fans something to care about in these rough times, we've decided to look ahead. Not to October 2016, but to August 2017, where we ask the question: Which of this season's non-competitive teams are most likely to be in the race in a year's time?
Here's how we rank them and why.
10. San Diego Padres
General manager A.J. Preller is baseball's Emma Woodhouse: handsome, clever, and rich -- with at-times questionable matchmaking skills. Preller's shift from a super-aggressive, win-now philosophy to a more laid-back, win-later approach figures to hold throughout the winter.
The Padres, then, are unlikely to add enough talent over the ensuing 12 months to think they'll be able to compete for a playoff spot. Based on Preller's rebuilding work, more exciting times due appear to be on the way -- perhaps as soon as 2018.
9. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Earlier this week, Mike Axisa detailed why the Angels are the most hopeless franchise in baseball . Basically, they're bad and expensive, and lack prospects and direction -- but other than that, everything's fine, really. Employing Mike Trout is a good way to win baseball games, and the Angels' win-now mindset earns them a higher spot than the Padres.
However, the Angels' best shot at contending next season hinges on Arte Moreno's willingness to spend gobs of cash. Alas, the Angels entered this season with a payroll topping $160 million, and already have more than $100 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for 2017 -- and that doesn't include arbitration raises to Garrett Richards and Kole Calhoun. Given the cost of an average player on the free-agent market, it's hard to see the Angels figuring out a way to hang with the Rangers, Astros, and Mariners anytime soon.
8. Oakland Athletics
It may seem silly to place the A's ahead of the Angels -- the latter has better top-end talent and more money -- but here's the thing: the A's never seem to view a straight line as the shortest distance between non-competitive and competitive.
Rather, Billy Beane and David Forst spend each offseason messing around with a tesseract, playing with all our widely held beliefs about timelines and how contenders are built and the like. The fact that the A's have succeeded with that approach -- multiple times, even -- is enough for us to give them the nod over an Angels' staff that has yet to show much spark.
7. Cincinnati Reds
Need evidence that nobody pays attention to the Reds? They have, at 19-11, the second-best record in the National League over the last 30 games. (You didn't know that, don't lie.)
The problem with forecasting the Reds to make a huge leap in 2017 has more to do with their division than anything else. The Cubs aren't going anywhere, nor are the Cardinal and Pirates, and the Brewers are further down the path to Competeville. The Reds do have some interesting prospects on the way -- including outfielder Jesse Winker -- but there's not enough here to place them in the top five.
Maybe next year? Maybe.
6. Atlanta Braves
The Braves have as much incentive as any team to be bold this winter -- after all, they're the only ones moving into a new ballpark come next opening day. Still, the Braves have a lot of work to do if their intent is to christen their new haunt with a postseason appearance -- particularly as it pertains to their lineup, which remains the least threatening in baseball.
Good farm system, the makings of a solid core, but just not enough -- not now -- to see as likely contenders come next August.
5. Minnesota Twins
The second-most maddening team on the list. The Twins are akin to the neurotic type who, upon learning his crush likes him, spends the ensuing week self-sabotaging himself at every turn.
How have the Twins done this? By taking a talented young group -- including Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios -- and yanking them around, to and fro. The making of a fun bunch -- one that could intrigue as soon as next year -- remain, so this one comes down to perspective.
If you want to play Miss Sunshine, keep in mind that the Twins will have a new general manager calling the shots soon, and that could mean an improved approach to handling their youngsters. If you don't, keep in mind that the Twins could well botch that hiring, too. Who knows which outcome is more likely.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
General manager David Stearns was hired with the promise that he's a super-smart guy. You might've accepted that based only on the fact he attended Harvard, where he probably finished 99th percentile in all kinds of measures that would make the average person roll their eyes. If not, then you ought to accept it now that he's put forth a promising first year on the job.
In addition to assembling what might be the best farm system in baseball, Stearns impressed by unearthing a number of unexpected contributors, including Jonathan Villar and Junior Guerra. That he accomplished both feats while maintaining some important pieces of his big-league core -- including Ryan Braun -- is reason to think the Brewers could be next season's surprise team. We'll see if Stearns agrees this winter.
3. Chicago White Sox
Goonies never say die, and apparently neither do we when it comes to thinking next year will be the White Sox's year to shine. Rick Hahn's team is the most frustrating in baseball for a simple reason: they have what every team wants -- a good and cheap core -- yet they can't seem to capitalize.
As such, we have to ask this question: If you can't be expected to win while Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, and Carlos Rodon all making well below their market cost, then under what circumstances can you be expected to win? Ugh. We're hoping the 2017 White Sox change the tune, because we're getting tired of the same old song and dance.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
There were those who felt entering the spring the new-look Diamondbacks were as overrated as a rose. Be that as it may, there's still a quality core in place. Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, and A.J. Pollock are known studs, and Jake Lamb has since made his case for inclusion on that level.
The Diamondbacks' front office is worth worrying about , but if they can find a way to improve the pitching staff -- or just have this season's designed improvements work out as intended -- then we might look back in a year's time with a different opinion on their winter than the one we have. You know what they say, after all: a poor first draft is better than none at all.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The argument here is straightforward: The Rays have more talent than their record suggests, and are due for a healthier season.
There are hangups here worth noting, too -- even beyond that the Rays entered this season as a trendy playoff pick for similar reasons. The post-Friedman front office has shown the bullpen-building savvy of a Canada goose, and their opportunities to add meaningful contributors this winter will be limited by their payroll and stubbornness toward trading prospects.
If you like the current roster, you'll agree with this rank; otherwise, you won't. We'll find out who's right soon enough.
