Solving the mystery behind Giancarlo Stanton's epic slump
The pitchers he's facing and how he's being pitched have a lot to do with it
By
Dayn Perry
•
3 min read
Marlins cloutsman Giancarlo Stanton is not having a characteristic season in 2016. After Sunday's loss to Max Scherzer and the Nationals (WAS 8, MIA 2), Stanton is now batting .211/.324/.469. Thanks to Stanton's secondary skills, those aren't bad numbers at the OPS level. However, they are disappointing for a 26-year-old who's under a $325 million contract and who entered 2016 with a career slash line of .270/.362/.547. It's been even worse of late, as Stanton has struck out 17 times in his last 17 at-bats. Since the May 14 doubleheader against the Nationals, Stanton is 3-for-35.
So what's going on with Giancarlo? The good news for Stanton and Marlins is that he's presently running a batting average of balls (BABIP) in play of .253. That figure is well below his established norms, and so long as he's not playing through an undisclosed injury of some kind, it should improve as the season goes on. However, Stanton has struck out in 34.5 percent of his plate appearances. There's always been a good deal of swing and miss in his game, as he entered this season with a career K% of 28.3. Now, though, he's reached at level at which it's hard to remain productive, or at least as productive as Giancarlo has been in the past.
In what's likely a related matter, Stanton is seeing an increased percentage of sliders this season, according to Pitchf/x. That's a pitch he's struggled with throughout his career, as the following Brooks Baseball data show ...
| Pitch type | Pitches seen | AVG | SLG |
| Fastball | 3,934 | .282 | .602 |
| Sinker | 2,669 | .304 | .526 |
| Change-up | 976 | .335 | .706 |
| Slider | 2,219 | .212 | .431 |
| Curve | 1,325 | .229 | .509 |
| Cutter | 909 | .266 | .537 |
This season, Stanton has seen sliders more than a quarter of the time, which puts it not far behind the fastball in terms of frequency. Speaking of more sliders, it's of course typically a weapon that pitchers use to attack same-handed hitters. On that front, Stanton this season has logged a fairly striking 84.1 percent of his plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. By comparison, all right-handed batters this season have ceded the platoon advantage in just 69.0 percent of plate appearances.This is the kind of thing you figure will balance out over time, and Stanton should see his numbers improve as he faces more lefties moving forward. Of course, the Marlins' NL East opponents, against whom they'll play roughly half their games this season, have among them just three lefty starters currently in their rotations. So maybe it won't fully balance out for Stanton this year.
The other factor is that Stanton isn't doing as good of a job when it comes to making contact on pitches outside the strike zone. In 2016, he's made contact on just 33.0 percent of his swings on pitches outside the strike zone, and that's versus a career mark of 44.6 percent. Obviously, that's a steep drop-off.
Now let's take a look at where Stanton is struggling when it comes to making contact. First, here's a look at his contact map for 2014-15 (from catchers point of view) ...
And 2016 ...
(Images via FanGraphs)
As you can see, Stanton is showing more vulnerability when it comes to putting the bat on the ball both within and without the strike zone this season. He's particularly struggling on making contact off the inside corner. That may be related to his facing all those right-handers, as pitchers of the same hand can of course bust you inside without having their pitches cross the heart of the plate. Maybe it's a slowing bat. Maybe it's Stanton trying to cheat away in anticipation of the slider. Maybe he's not healthy. Whatever the reasons, it's a real thing he's dealing with right now.
So as we move forward maybe keep an eye on how Stanton's handling inside pitches and whether he's able to lay off breaking balls early in the count. More lefties on the mound would be nice, too. Also, Stanton as recently as May 13 was batting .250/.370/.563, so he's produced at a high level in the very recent past. He'll figure this out.
