What you need to know about prospects dealt at MLB trade deadline from an expert
Lots of trades were made, here's who came out ahead
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4 min read
You might remember Christopher Crawford from our draft-day coverage and more recently from him helping to explain what the Yankees got in return for Aroldis Chapman and all the prospects they got at the deadline. He writes about prospects and draftees for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.
If you had to rank the top five prospects traded, who would they be and how would you rank them?
I would go 1) Lewis Brinson 2) Luis Ortiz 3) Grant Holmes 4) Phil Bickford and 5) Lucius Fox
How do you think the Brewers managed in their trades?
As you can probably tell from my rankings, I think they did very well. Brinson has really struggled in 2016, but his upside competes with any outfielder, and every tool but the hit has a chance to be plus. Ortiz is a burly right-hander who has the size you see from durable right-handers, and he has two plus pitches in his fastball/slider and a solid-average one in the change. Bickford is a bit more controversial, but when you see him on his best day, he's 70-fastball, 55-slider, 50-change, and throwing strikes with all three pitches. There's a chance he's a reliever, but it's worth the risk. Add in Andrew Susac who I believe has a chance to be a very good starting catcher, and I think you have had a pretty good day.
Did the Marlins overpay for Andrew Cashner?
I would say no, but many in the industry would disagree. Josh Naylor can hit, but I have concerns about the body type, and he's certainly limited to first base, which limits the value significantly. If you counted Luis Castillo as part of the trade I would agree, but since he's being sent back as restitution for the Colin Rea injury, you can't count him as part of the trade. Cashner isn't a special starter, but I don't think Naylor is a special prospect, so it's fair value in the end.
What did the Rays get in return for Matt Moore?
I think the Rays did really well in this deal. Lucius Fox is one of the most intriguing athletes to sign in last year's IFA class; he's a double-plus runner, and every tool but power has a chance to be above-average. There's a long way to go, but the upside is huge. Before Michael Santos' injury, he was really impressive, showing a plus fastball and three average secondary offerings, the best of which being a slider that would flash plus. Add in Matt Duffy, and I think Tampa Bay did very well with this deal.
How excited should Reds fans be about the return on Jay Bruce?
Not terribly, but they could have done a lot worse. Dilson Herrera is an athletic second baseman how has shown the ability to hit for average with solid-average power, and he can run a little bit too. More than likely, you're looking at a guy who is a super-utility player that can play four or five positions off the bench. The "best" prospect in this deal is Max Wotell; a left-hander the Mets took in the third round last year who has shown an above-average fastball and improving secondaries. There's still projection left, so he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter at some point, with quite a bit of volatility because, well, he's a young pitcher.
Should Pirates fans fret about losing Harold Ramirez and Reese McGuire?
I would say it's more about the message sent than losing the prospects. That's not to say Ramirez and McGuire aren't good. Ramirez has a chance for a plus hit tool and can run a little bit, but he can't field and he can't throw, and the power is below-average, which puts a ton of pressure on the hit tool maximizing. McGuire is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and while he's never going to hit much, he doesn't have to because of the arm strength and improving receiving skills. These aren't elite prospects, but they are quality pieces to an organization, and the fact that the Pirates were willing to -- for lack of a better term -- sell them is pretty disappointing.
Which traded prospect do you like more than most -- which less than most?
The guy I'm higher on than some I've spoken with is Guadalupe Lopez, the right-hander the Astros got for Scott Feldman. He's wafer-thin and only throwing in the high-80s, but there's a ton of projection in his right arm, and he has excellent control on top of a plus change. I'd probably say I'm lower than the industry on Bickford still; consistency just hasn't been his friend at all, and anytime you hear about arms fluctuating their secondary offerings AND the velocity, I think that's cause for concern. A nice piece to get for a reliever, but there's a chance he's a reliever in the long run as well.
