Where does Tim Raines rank among the greatest leadoff hitters?
The greatest leadoff hitter of all-time was Rickey Henderson, but a case could be made that Tim Raines is second.
By
Matt Snyder
•
2 min read
Tim Raines is on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the ninth year, and last year he got 55 percent of the vote. It was the high-water mark for him, but he still needs 20 percent more to get in and only has two remaining votes to make up that ground.
Dave Brown has discussed the Hall of Fame case for Tim Raines, but I'll make things a lot more simple: Tim Raines should be in the Hall of Fame because he was one of the greatest leadoff hitters in baseball history.
We couldn't do that for every spot in the order (the greatest eighth hitter ever probably wouldn't sway many people), but leadoff is a very important spot. It's the table-setting spot for the middle of the order and there are at least four Hall of Famers who could be considered leadoff hitters. Another, Ichiro Suzuki, is also headed to Cooperstown once he's retired for five years. Raines ranks very well when matched up against these guys. In fact, he's probably the second best ever.
To illustrate as much, let's use Baseball Reference's play index. We'll look for what great leadoff men do. They get on base, steal bases and score runs. Using only data from the leadoff spot, I sorted for players with a career .340 or better on-base percentage, at least 200 steals and at least 800 runs scored. The data goes back to 1914 and we get only 16 names.
Here they are, sorted by career OPS+ (this includes all spots in the batting order, but I felt like it was the best way to measure the differences in eras).
Asterisks denote Hall of Famers.
|
Player
|
On-base percentage
|
OPS+
|
Runs
|
Steals
|
Plate appearances
|
|
Rickey Henderson*
|
.401
|
127
|
2,244
|
1,384
|
13,122
|
|
Tim Raines
|
.385
|
123
|
1,011
|
584
|
6,514
|
|
Paul Molitor*
|
.365
|
122
|
1,131
|
370
|
7,291
|
|
George Burns
|
.365
|
114
|
918
|
242
|
6,266
|
|
Craig Biggio*
|
.370
|
112
|
1,128
|
238
|
7,297
|
|
Brett Butler
|
.374
|
110
|
1,198
|
483
|
8,432
|
|
Lou Brock*
|
.343
|
109
|
1,254
|
762
|
8,653
|
|
Brady Anderson
|
.367
|
109
|
874
|
256
|
6,122
|
|
Ichiro Suzuki
|
.366
|
108
|
1,156
|
433
|
8,280
|
|
Kenny Lofton
|
.371
|
107
|
1,317
|
552
|
7,929
|
|
Chuck Knoblauch
|
.378
|
106
|
934
|
331
|
5,964
|
|
Jose Reyes
|
.341
|
105
|
914
|
438
|
6,293
|
|
Johnny Damon
|
.354
|
104
|
1,179
|
307
|
7,411
|
|
Rafael Furcal
|
.348
|
96
|
993
|
280
|
6,481
|
|
Eric Young
|
.359
|
92
|
824
|
388
|
5,784
|
|
Juan Pierre
|
.340
|
84
|
857
|
473
|
6,675
|
Quick snapshot for sure, but the landscape of what we see above is that Raines was only noticeably worse than the greatest leadoff man in history. He's got Lou Brock by more than 40 points in OBP while scoring runs at a higher rate (note the difference in PAs) and stealing bases at a similar rate.
On the Brock front, this is worth a mention ...
Raines vs Brock BA: Rock OBP: Rock SLG: Rock OPS: Rock TOB: Rock HR: Rock SB%: Rock OPS+: Rock wOBA: Rock wRC+: Rock WAR: Rock HOF: Brock
— Ace of MLB Stats (@theaceofspaeder) December 17, 2015
Lou Brock would have to return to baseball and steal 762 consecutive bases without being caught to pass Tim Raines in SB efficiency.
— Ace of MLB Stats (@theaceofspaeder) December 17, 2015
Raines is similar to Biggio and Molitor overall, it's just that he didn't get to 3,000 hits. Of course, he hit .294 with a .385 OBP compared to .281 and .363 for Biggio.
Raines' case is much more than just his skills as a stellar leadoff man, but there's a case to be made that he was the second-best leadoff man in history. His greatest crime appears to have been that he played during the time that the greatest ever was dwarfing what Raines did. No Rickey, and we wouldn't still be having this Rock conversation.
Bad timing shouldn't keep someone out of the Hall.
