With trade, the James Shields signing proves to be disastrous for the Padres
A year after going all-in with several blockbuster moves, the Padres take the first step toward a rebuild
By
Mike Axisa
•
2 min read
Last offseason, in an attempt to return to relevance, the Padres swung a series of blockbuster trades and made one big free agent signing. GM A.J. Preller was ultra-aggressive in his first few months on the job. I'm fairly certain he was directed by ownership to go all-in. No new GM has the kind of authority to make all those moves without the stamp of approval from ownership.
That one big free agent signing was veteran right-hander James Shields, who, on Saturday, was traded to the White Sox for prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. and right-hander Erik Johnson. San Diego is reportedly covering a significant chunk of the $58 million or so left on Shields' contract:
Source: #Padres sending #WhiteSox more than $30M in Shields trade.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 4, 2016
Shields can opt-out of the final two years and $44 million left on his contract after the season, which seems far from certain. He's 34 years old and his game is slipping. What are the odds he can find more than $44 million in free agency? The upcoming free agent pitching market is a wasteland, so maybe it would be worth it. We'll see. The Padres would save a bunch of cash of he does opt-out.
Either way, there is no sugarcoating how the James Shields era went for the Padres: it was a disaster. Simply put, they gave up an awful lot to acquire relatively little. Here's a breakdown of what the Padres acquired and what they gave up:
Padres gave up:
- 13th overall pick in 2015 draft (forfeited to sign Shields)
- Roughly $40 million in salary
Padres acquired:
- 44 starts and 269 2/3 innings of 4.00 ERA (93 ERA+) from Shields, which equals +2.3 WAR
- Johnson, a 26-year-old righty with a 4.50 ERA (89 ERA+) in 98 career big league innings
- Tatis, a 17-year-old prospect who has yet to play in a professional game
I like Johnson quite a bit, actually. He's not a future ace or anything like that, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him out-pitch Shields during the remainder of Shields' contract. That said, the Padres gave up a high pick and $40 million to acquire 44 average-ish starts from Shields, Johnson, and a lottery ticket in Tatis. Woof.
Remember, Shields was blasted for 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings in his final start as a Padre a few days ago, after which team chairman Ron Fowler called the performance "an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him." Shields took the high road when asked about Fowler's comments, but I can't imagine he was thrilled a high-ranking executive called him out like that.
The Padres did not get the desired result from their 2014-15 offseason spending spree. They went 74-88 in 2015 after going 77-85 in 2014, partly because Shields only pitched decently instead of like an ace. Maybe Tatis will turn into a star down the line and make it all worth it. If that doesn't happen, the Padres will have given up a ton to get Shields and they're paying a lot of money to get rid of him.
Free agent deals don't work out much worse. This is a big loss for the Padres.
