Yankees eliminated: October return, but questions linger for 2016
The Yankees were able to return to the postseason in 2015, but they fell short of the World Series. Questions linger for the team heading into the offseason.
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
Eliminated Teams >>> Looking at what's ahead for 2016
NEW YORK -- Not many people expected the Yankees to contend this season -- none of us at EOB had them in the playoffs -- but the club returned to the postseason for the first time since 2012. Their stay didn't last very long, however. They were eliminated by the Astros in the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday night (HOU 3, NYY 0). As always, the Yankees head into the offseason with plenty of questions to answer.
What went right: The Yankees got production from young and old in 2015. Alex Rodriguez returned from his suspension and was a force, hitting a team-leading 33 home runs. Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran all had better years than they did in 2014 as well. Youngsters like Luis Severino, Greg Bird, John Ryan Murphy, Chasen Shreve and Rob Refsnyder stepped into various roles and produced immediately.
Although the starting pitchers each missed time with minor injuries, the rotation stayed relatively healthy. Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia and Nathan Eovaldi all made at least 24 starts. Severino came up in August and dominated in 11 starts. Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances were untouchable in the late innings: The Yankees had a .957 winning percentage when leading after seven innings in 2015, while the MLB average was .882.
Of course, the biggest question coming into the season was the shortstop position with Derek Jeter retiring. The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius in a three-team trade and for a while it looked like a disaster. Gregorius didn't hit or defend in April while Shane Greene, the pitcher given up to get him, dominated early for the Tigers. Gregorius turned his season around in May and was very strong the rest of the way. He finished sixth among all shortstops with a 3.3 WAR.
What went wrong: Neither Chase Headley nor Jacoby Ellsbury had a good season -- Ellsbury had an 84 OPS+ and was benched in the wild-card game -- and the Yankees gave far too many at-bats to Stephen Drew (78 OPS+) before turning to Refsnyder and trade-deadline pickup Dustin Ackley. Eovaldi hurt his elbow late in the season and had to be shut down, which thinned out the rotation.
Tanaka (114 ERA+) and Severino (138 ERA+) were the team's only above-average pitchers on a rate basis, and the general lack of innings -- New York's starters ranked 21st with 927 innings -- wore out the bullpen as the season progressed. Everyone in the starting lineup other than Gregorius and Beltran seemed to wear down in the second half as well, and the offense really sputtered in September.
Yankees MVP: A-Rod. It would have been Teixeira had he not suffered a small fracture in his leg after fouling a pitch into his shin. He was limited to only 111 games.
Yankees LVP: Ellsbury over Sabathia or Drew because he was expected to be a difference-maker. Sabathia was coming off serious knee surgery and Drew was a buy-low bounce-back type. Ellsbury is in Year 2 of his massive seven-year contract.
Pending free agents: Chris Capuano, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Brendan Ryan (club and player option)
2016 payroll obligations: The Yankees currently have $183.8 million on the books for next season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. Outside of second base and the extra bench/bullpen pieces, the Yankees are more or less locked into their roster for another year. Some of the big contracts begin to expire after 2016. That's when the roster logjam will start to clear out.
Biggest offseason decision: How do the Yankees improve with so little roster flexibility? They can bring in a new second baseman -- Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick are among the notable free agents -- but may stick with Refsnyder. They have sievenstarting pitchers either under contract (Sabathia, Tanaka) or team control (Eovaldi, Pineda, Severino, Adam Warren, Ivan Nova) for 2016.
Last offseason the Yankees focused on getting younger, and they accomplished that by acquiring Gregorius and Eovaldi, and then by incorporating Severino, Bird, Refsnyder and other young players into the lineup during the season. They could do that again, perhaps by using Gardner, Headley or even Ellsbury as trade bait. No-trade clauses will be a factor there. Either way, the Yankees have to figure out a way to upgrade their roster despite limited flexibility.
2016 will be better if ... A-Rod, Beltran, McCann and the other veterans repeat their 2015 performances while younger players like Gregorius, Eovaldi, Bird and Severino take steps forward in their development.
2016 will be worse if ... All those veteran players begin to show their age. If that happens, there's almost nothing the young players can do to pick up the slack. The Yankees rely on their oldest players to play important roles, and when you do that, you run the risk of things blowing up.
Ridiculously premature 2016 prediction: The Yankees will make at least one significant trade this offseason -- my guess a starting pitcher is involved, likely either Nova or Pineda -- but otherwise plug their remaining roster holes from within. They'll resist the urge to sign a top free agent for the second straight offseason. The end result will be another team in the 85-to-88-win range next season, which means another flirtation with a wild-card spot but not the division title.
