Zack Wheeler's injury is a blow, but Mets have plenty of rotation depth
Mets righty Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL and will likely need Tommy John surgery. It's a big blow, but the Mets are better able to absorb a major rotation injury than most teams.
By
Mike Axisa
•
2 min read
The week has started with some very bad news for the Mets: right-hander Zack Wheeler has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, the team announced. He will head for a second opinion this week, though that is only a formality. Wheeler is very likely to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2015 season.
The 24-year-old Wheeler had a 3.54 ERA (98 ERA+) in 32 starts and 185 1/3 innings last year, his first full season in MLB. He led the team with 187 strikeouts, good for 10th most in the NL. New York acquired Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran in 2011 and he is a part of their core of young starting pitchers.
Wheeler was expected to continue his development this coming season and join Matt Harvey and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom near the top of the club's rotation. Losing him for a year -- probably more, the Mets were very conservative with Harvey's Tommy John rehab and I assume they will play it safe with Wheeler as well -- delays if not derails that development.
Losing Wheeler is clearly a blow to the Mets, but the team also has no shortage of options to replace him in he rotation. In fact, the Mets might be best equipped to deal with a major pitching injury of any team in MLB. Here is their rotation depth chart without Wheeler:
1. Harvey
2. deGrom
3. Jonathon Niese
4. Bartolo Colon
5. Dillon Gee
6. Rafael Montero - 4.06 ERA in 44 1/3 innings last year, his MLB debut, including a 1.40 ERA in his final 19 1/3 innings of the season.
7. Noah Syndergaard - Ranked the 11th best prospect in MLB by Baseball America coming into the season. His 4.60 ERA in Triple-A last year was mostly the product of a brutal home ballpark and run environment in Las Vegas.
8. Steven Matz - Ranked the 33rd best prospect in MLB by Baseball America this year. Has a 2.32 ERA in 275 1/3 minor league innings.
Gee was slated to open the season in the bullpen -- assuming the Mets did not trade him, of course -- and now he'll step into the rotation to replace Wheeler. Gee was the team's Opening Day starter in 2014, by the way.
Syndergaard may be the sixth starter ahead of Montero. That really depends on how well each is performing in Triple-A when a call-up is needed. Either way, both are ahead of Matz, who only has 71 career innings above Class-A, all at Double-A. Matz is more of a second half rotation option that anything.
Many teams would have penciled two of Gee and either Syndergaard or Montero into their Opening Day rotation, but none were among the Mets' top five starters coming into the season. These aren't generic back-end starters either. (Well, Gee is.) Syndergaard and Matz have Harvey/deGrom potential. They're that promising. The Mets are deep with potential elite starters.
Pitchers break, seemingly more than ever these days, and that's why quality depth is so important. The Mets have more of it than just about every team in MLB. Is Syndergaard guaranteed to dominate? Nope. Of course not. But if he doesn't, the Mets can turn to Montero. And if Montero doesn't perform well either they can turn to Matz.
Losing Wheeler hurts because it will impact his development, almost certainly negatively. That said, the Mets emphasized adding young high-end starters in recent years for this exact reason. Wheeler's development takes a hit, but the 2015 Mets might even notice his absence.
