Finally, we can safely project Adrian Peterson's stats
Adrian Peterson's uncertain future made his projections very tough to figure out, but Dave Richard can get a grip now that he's back with the Vikings.
He's no longer on the Commissioner's Exempt List. He's eligible to play. And we know he's not going to play in Dallas, Arizona, Jacksonville or Oakland. We know he's a Viking, and still getting paid what he agreed to back in 2011.
Best of all, he's back with the team after he told ESPN's Josina Anderson "it's time for me to come in and test the waters and re-familiarize myself with our offense and the direction they're trying to go in."
No holdout. No more Twitter rants. No reason to believe he'll miss the start of training camp. No more tears.
Adrian Peterson is back. Here's proof:
All 89 players are at #Vikings OTA #4 today. pic.twitter.com/3QmMcJeQc5
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) June 2, 2015
All of this should help you feel a lot better about his draft stock. Uncertainty is not our friend.
By August, we'll know what kind of shape he's in and if he's holding up in training camp. We might even see him in a preseason game. Until then, everyone will assume that Peterson is like a super hero and ready to churn against every defense he faces, just as he did in 2012 when he came back from a torn ACL.
Admittedly, there are some hangups that you have to keep in mind. For starters, he barely played last year. He also has had plenty of work (and thus has been hit a lot) over the course of his career. The official count, including the playoffs, is 2,147 carries and 212 catches. In an upcoming article you'll see that data means he's a candidate to start slowing down and not put up big numbers. And it might weigh on your mind that Peterson turned 30 in March (remember the birthday party?).
Normally, a 30-year old back with over 2,000 career carries who didn't play last season will raise some red flags.
But unless Peterson spent his time off sitting on his couch eating Cheetos and watching Newhart reruns, he's probably in good shape. It might even be a good thing that he was forced out in 2014 instead of putting another 250 to 300 carries on his body. It's not like he tore a ligament or broke something. At this point, consider the time off a good thing.
Best of all, Peterson has proven to have unique physical abilities. Go back to his college days all the way through to his amazing 2012 when he came back from a torn ACL. He's come back from injuries well -- and now he's not even injured. You'd bet against this guy??
Here's the icing on the cake: The 2015 Vikings offense is probably the second-best offense he'll ever work in, and the schedule is fairly good. Within the NFC North there isn't a dangerous run defense (remember, the Lions lost Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley this offseason). Minnesota does have four games against the NFC West but matchups against St. Louis and Seattle are at home and in the second half of the season, which helps a little. Remaining matchups against the AFC West, at Atlanta and home against the New York Giants (in Week 16) aren't bad. So there's nothing to really dislike.
Might Peterson be good for 20 touches per week -- maybe 18 carries and two catches per? Could he average a modest 4.4 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per catch? If that's not out of the question then put him on the hook for 1,270 rush yards and 175 receiving yards. No complaints there, right? And Peterson has posted at least 10 touchdowns in each of his previous seven NFL seasons (when he played more than one game). Looking over that schedule, 10 shouldn't be a problem. I might even be so bold as to say 11!
That's well worth a first-round pick in Fantasy. Might not be worth the No. 1 overall pick (unless you think I'm shorting his projections), but you should be ready to take Peterson with the seventh overall pick in my standard league and maybe one spot lower in PPR. I have no problem whatsoever taking him ahead of Rob Gronkowski and any other pass catcher.















