In long QB con game, Fitzpatrick won't get more and Kaepernick can't lose

Why can't Ryan Fitzpatrick get more money? Why can't Colin Kaepernick lose? Who really wants RG3? We call out the bluffs in this QB con game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have to be in a hurry. He isn't missing anything by delaying a decision on signing a new contract for a few more weeks. Heck, he really wouldn't miss much by extending this waiting game up to the draft if he really wanted to.

But the reality is, as the days go on, nothing is really going to change for the journeyman quarterback. The market has spoken, the market will continue to speak, and barring something unforeseen (another club having a starting quarterback suffer a freak accident or something like that), Fitzpatrick is not going to like what the NFL is collectively telling him. NFL teams have now had a full week to legally negotiate with any free agent they like, and with the first wave of free agency well over and the big money already spent, here Fitzpatrick sits.

Why Fitz has no leverage

The Jets, as we've long reported, are not inclined to jack up their offers, which some have suggested to me are as low as $7 million a year. Whatever the exact figure, it's clear it's not to Fitzpatrick's liking. His agent, Jimmy Sexton, who knows the landscape well from being able to garner a whopping $37 million guaranteed for Brock Osweiler, must know that the odds of getting anywhere in that $15-$18M range are bleak, try as he might. What's going on in the remnants of this quarterback market is a game of bluffing and faux-interest, with teams and agents trying to find a foil or two to improve their cause, while realizing this is basically a dance of deception.

So the Broncos, who clearly value Colin Kaepernick as their preferred replacement for Peyton Manning/Osweiler, kick the tires on Fitzpatrick and aren't willing to go anywhere near his asking price. They just want to let everyone know that they have other options, besides Kaepernick, as they try to get the 49ers to deal him for a third-round pick and nothing more. And the 49ers keep wanting to pretend that they could just keep Kaepernick after all -- funny little parable that is -- and that they could fix this broken marriage if they have to, so, no way will they be cutting him next month when his contract becomes guarantees. Only, the Browns and the Broncos are far from convinced of that, so I wonder how much more they would really be willing to give up for a quarterback coming off three surgeries whom they won't be able to watch throw a football for them for quite some time, anyway.

Fitzpatrick is a capable starter when he takes care of the football. (USATSI)

And the Jets, who have based this offseason around having Fitzpatrick back, at their price, well, they had to get into the game of Three-Quarterback Monte as well, so they let it get floated out there they were in on the Kaepernick trade market (they weren't) and they brought in Robert Griffin III for a free-agent visit last week. But RG3 and all the drama that swirled around him in Washington is exactly what this new Jets regime is trying to avoid. This was about the most low-key starting quarterback visit I can ever recall, with no mention of offers or anything, and days later, here Griffin sits, awaiting his next move as this high profile shell game continues.

Where does Griffin really fit? San Francisco, of course, where he's always been the fallback plan for Chip Kelly if/when Kaepernick is traded or released. But the 49ers can't show any real interest in Griffin now, because they are still trying to sell the notion that they don't have to do anything for Kaepernick. And the Browns clearly don't have to do anything because with the second-overall pick they have their choice of any quarterback in this draft in their back pocket.

So where does that leave Fitzpatrick?

Well, right where he's been. Unless a sudden need develops atop the quarterback depth chart somewhere else out of an unexpected event (injury, suspension, retirement, whatever), I don't see much of anything changing for Fitzpatrick. Yes, there was just a ton of money doled out for quarterbacks -- many of them marginal or unproven -- but that was for younger players with either a superior resume and earning history, and with considerably more upside. It wasn't for a 33-year-old who has already bounced around to six teams. That's nearly 20 percent of the league right there. Fitz has been around.

Fitzpatrick had a great season for the Jets and he is as bright and classy and driven as anyone in the NFL and he is exactly the kind of bridge quarterback any team would want (when he keeps the turnovers down). He was one of the feel-good stories in the league last season and his best football has always come when working with Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, who had that Jets offense humming a year ago. But this is also a quarterback who was dealt for a conditional sixth-round pick just a year ago, and one that has played for four teams the last four years, saying goodbye to Buffalo, Tennessee and Houston in that span, and now facing this showdown with the Jets.

The reason those other quarterbacks got paid, for the most part, was hope. False hope in some cases, but hope. The great unknown. The idea that we don't yet know what they could become, in the right hands, with the right coaches, in the perfect system. Fitzpatrick is what he is. And there is nothing wrong with that. But he's already been around and had the change of scenery and he got the big-bucks contract once before in Buffalo -- when he was still seen as an unpolished diamond that might truly sparkle.

Now, 11 years into his career, having turned 33 just before Thanksgiving, that is no longer the case. He can be a very capable starter when he takes care of the football (154 touchdowns and 116 interceptions in 113 career games) and he is a perfect fit with Gailey and he has one team that is truly interested in him and where he could sign a contract right now, and I'm not sure that's going to change. The days of hope and upside are over. It's about the here and now and being a proven commodity and a week into the free agent process, the market has been established.

Sure, there was all kind of money flowing around just a few days ago, but once those initial splashes are made, the market takes dramatic shifts and older players for the most part are left scraping and clawing for the coins still on the table. That's why you saw DeMarcus Ware take a pay cut to stay in a winning program in Denver with a top pass rusher on the other side of the line where he can continue to make a case for the Hall of Fame. That's why you see accomplished but older safeties like Eric Weddle and Reggie Nelson not get snatched up right away. Weddle did sign Monday with the Ravens on a 4-year, $26 million deal.

There is only so much interest to go around, so much money to go around. And when that wheel starts to slow down, it very rarely cranks back up. So, whatever the number is, Fitzpatrick might as well take it. Doesn't have to be today. Doesn't have to be tomorrow. But sometime before the draft -- when four or five kids get drafted in the first round and begin to take up more jobs -- and before OTAs, go ahead and sign that contract. Maybe it ends up being $10M a year on a two-or-three-year deal. Whatever it is, it'd be silly to bank on being substantially more than what's been on the table now, and once this quarterback shuffle gets sorted out I don't anticipate the money being much higher than it is today.

Why Kaepernick should fight for every penny

Kaepernick shouldn't entertain the thought of re-doing his contract, particularly not to facilitate a trade to the Browns. Yes, he wants out of San Francisco and yes, restructuring his already-team friendly deal might facilitate that, but if I am advising the quarterback right now I'm not even engaging in any consideration to alter this deal. I'm looking at this trade as being the 49ers problem, not mine, and the quarterback already took a team-friendly deal at the height of his leverage that was supposed to allow for adding weapons to a roster that instead went into quick decay. He didn't meet the lofty incentives, he is set to make just $12M this season, he received just $12M to sign and this is a contract that the Browns in particular -- and pretty much any team, really, for that matter, can easily stomach.

Worst case for Kaepernick? The 49ers keep him into April. (USATSI)

The Browns are sitting on like $45 million in cap space, they haven't spent any real money this offseason and just let four starters walk out the door. Kaepernick's contract -- as detailed last week -- allows teams the ability to pay as they go, and taking even less money now will only hurt the quarterback down the road, especially if he does rehabilitate his career wherever he ends up. The mere thought that rehabilitation could be accomplished in Cleveland -- where quarterbacks go to extinction -- is kinda crazy, no matter what you might think of new head coach Hue Jackson. The sheer lack of talent on the roster looks like a recipe for more surgeries for Kaepernick than anything else. The state of the offensive line, the inability to run the football, the defense that might be the worst in football, none of that bodes well for him, and taking a hit on your contract in the process would be a non-starter for me.

Worst case for Kaepernick is the 49ers actually do keep him into April, his $12M guarantees, and then he stays away while rehabbing and still tries to force a trade. Best case would likely be he works out an injury settlement with the 49ers, is released, and then is free to negotiate with any team in the NFL for his next deal. Maybe things come down somewhere in the middle. But there is still plenty of time to get dealt -- even a draft-day deal could work here -- and the 49ers, trying to climb out of their deep post-Harbaugh hole, won't want to have Kelly's regime begin with a protracted fight with their starting quarterback. No reason to panic now and give the Browns a handout.

More free agency notes:

	Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has legitimate interest in Mike Wallace, who is visiting them today. They saw him at his absolute best – against them – when he was at his peak with the Steelers and they believe even after some poor seasons his speed and presence could be big for huge-armed quarterback Joe Flacco. They always buy-low on receivers and the still need weapons.
	Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is going to come away with another starting caliber tackle this week. Ultimately, getting Kelvin Beachum back may be their best bet, and unless some other team puts substantially more money on the table, it makes the most sense for him, too.