Welcome to the Inside the Lines Model

Powered by simulations. Built on data. Delivered daily.

Smarter game analysis, predictive playoff brackets, insightful power rankings, and more - all updated daily and always free.

• CFP: Who's in & Who's out
  
• AFC & NFC Playoff Pictures: Race to X Wins
  
• Projected College Football Playoff (ahead of conference championships)
  
• NFL Power Rankings
  
• Hero World Challenge Preview
  

[Dec 4, 2025 at 5:46 pm ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Inside the Lines immediately spotted value in the Colts the moment they signed Daniel Jones, projecting their playoff chances at 41.4%. They smashed early expectations with a 7–1 start that pushed their playoff odds to 98.2%. But after dropping 3 of their last 4, Indy has slid back to 73.7%. Here's a look at the Colts' week-to-week playoff odds — and how a Week 14 loss would impact their postseason chances.

[Dec 3, 2025 at 7:06 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

What's On the Line?

• This is a must-win for both teams to make the playoffs
• Dallas is still alive at 24% but a win takes them to near a coin flip at 42% but a loss drops them out of contention to 10%
• Detroit is at just 38% but stays alive at 53% with a win while a loss takes them down to 19%
• The model favors Detroit to win at 54.5% and that does assume Amon-Ra St. Brown only has a small chance of playing
• Not only is TE Sam LaPorta out for the season, his backup Brock Wright was ruled out and now Ross Dwelley is the next man up
• The Lions' defense was decimated last season and cost them in the playoffs, this season it's looking like the offense will be decimated and will cost them a playoff spot

Malik Davis Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-110 Hard Rock)

• You can get -140 over  7.5 on BetMGM and other books are at 10.5 (-114 on FanDuel, -108 on DraftKings) so a -110 on 7.5 is clear ACT NOW
• Rookie Jaydon Blue is no where near playing regular snaps
• Javonte Williams is the workhorse but he'll need a spell for at least 3 snaps
• Davis is on a 'heater' with 4 rushes for 20 yards, 3 for 24, and 3 for 47 (and a TD) last week
• He is 9-2 over this line when he gets carries and his 2 unders were games where he only had 1 and 2 carries
• Looking for a early 2nd quarter cover

Jared Goff Over 0.5 Interception (+128 FanDuel)

• The model has this at around a 50/50 chance which is good value at +128, 43.8% 
• I think Amon-Ra St. Brown won't be able to play and you can only dump it off to the RBs so much
• He will have to pass the ball downfield and without St. Brown or LaPorta I could see mistakes and miscommunication happening
• Goff did not throw a pick last week in their loss at home but did have 1 in each of his two previous games
• Dallas' defense got zero pass rush to start the season after trading Micah Parsons, but the new pieces they've added since like Quinnen Williams and JaDeveon Clowney has vastly improved their pass rush and they have two games with 5 sacks, a 4 sack and a 3 sack game in their last 8 games (had 5 total in their first 4 games to start the season)
• Dallas' offense is red hot and Goff and the Lions are going to have to keep up in the passing game which will lead to plenty of 'interceptable balls' without his top 2 receivers

Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+110 BetMGM)

• The Lions' odds implied score is still nearly 29 points and while Gibbs and Montgomery could end up accounting for 2 of 3 Lions TDs there is a way better than 47.6% chance that that TD goes to Williams
• If St. Brown is out (LaPorta out, Brock Wright out), only rookie Isaac TeSlaa among receivers catches a meaningful percentage of team receiving TDs (TeSlaa 15%)
• Jameson Williams' solid 21% of receiving TDs is mostly with St. Brown (34%) and LaPorta (20%) on the field
• Without those two Williams may be in line for 50% of receiving TDs
• He is also used in creative run situations, jet sweeps, etc. and in the playoffs vs Washington he ran for a 61 yard touchdown

[Dec 3, 2025 at 6:22 pm ET · Stephen Oh]

BEARS VS PACKERS

• Both teams' playoff chances are above 75% even if they lose so this game is all about the NFC North chances
• Chicago goes from 41% to 70% with a win but down to 27% with a loss
• Green Bay goes from 53% to 67% with a win but 22% with a loss
• Model likes Green Bay with a 68% chance to win with a projected score of 28 to 20
• Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road despite a pretty bad point differential (-4.1) and they allow
• Bears pass defense allows way more Yards per pass attempt on the road (8.1) than at home (6.9)
• Bears allow +8.5 more pts on the road (29.1) than at home
• Green Bay's passing game was struggling without TE Tucker Kraft but had a solid 234 yards beating Detroit
• WR Dontayvion Wicks missed some time but with his 6 rec, 94 yard, 2 TD game he's providing Jordan Love and GB that 3rd receiving option
• Jordan Love Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-114 BetRivers) is a good bet
• Projected for 243
• Buy low value on his initial struggles w/o Tucker Kraft (3 straight sub 180 yard games) but broke out of it last week and was 5-2 prior to Kraft's injury

PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE

• Both fanbases are in the dumps after their last outings at home, and both were booed off their home fields
• Ravens are 62% sim favorites (BAL 24, PIT 20) but that could go to 70% if T.J. Watt is out or seriously limited
• Both team's playoff chances are basically their Division Chances and neither really has a legit shot at a Wildcard
• Baltimore's Division chances go from 53% to 71% with a win, just 24.5% with a loss
• Pittsburgh division chances go from 39% to 70% with a win and 21% with a loss
• Baltimore should be able to win this by running it 90% of the time
• Buffalo ran the same play over and over (T.J. Watt's words) and had 249 rushing yards on 4.9 ypc
• Steelers LB Patrick Queen has been a mega disappointment as a big money FA last season and he may be out or at least not nearly 100%
• Baltimore trucked the Steelers with 220 yards on 5.8 ypc last December and then again with 299 yards on 6 ypc a few weeks later in the playoffs
• Pittsburgh 100% knew what Baltimore and Buffalo were going to do and they got steamrolled… sounds like a major strength (good running games) vs a major weakness (Steelers run defense)
• Odds aren't posted but waiting to take Keaton Mitchell's over in rushing yards if it's anything under 30 rushing yards

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE

• The Colts' playoff chances could get dangerously close to 50% with a loss because they are the one team that doesn't have the head-to-head vs the Chiefs
• Indianapolis' goes from 74% to make the playoffs to 89% with a win but just 59% with a loss
• Jacksonville has an 80% playoff% and that goes to 94% with a win and 68% with a loss
• Both team's division chances are nearly identical at around 37% each, both go to right around 58% with a win and both drop to 15 to 16% with a loss
• Indianapolis is the slight 52% sim favorite because Jonathan Taylor is projected for a 100 yards game on 4.9 ypc
• But the splits are not with the Colts' running game as they average just 94 rushing yards (4.3 ypc) on the road vs a whopping 163 on 5.5 at home
• The Jags run defense is awesome, statistically, allowing just 82 yards on 3.9 ypc which is an amazing improvement on the 133 (4.4 ypc) they allowed last season
• Jonathan Taylor has been held in check for 3 of his last 4 games (85, 58, and 45 with one explosive 244) and if not for the 244 yard game vs Atlanta he'd probably be projected for under 90 yards on 4.5 ypc and the Jaguars would be favored
• If Taylor does not have a big game and the Colts lose he has no shot at the MVP

HOUSTON AT KANSAS CITY

• Chiefs could be virtually eliminated from the playoffs with a loss going from 37% to 9% but a win keeps them above water at 54%
• Houston is on a roll and would get a massive bump from 59% to 85% with a win because this is one of their hardest games on the schedule and they, like every other AFC Wildcard contender, would earn the head to head vs the Chiefs
• If Houston loses they'd still be a decent 44% to make the playoffs
• The Chiefs are 61% sim favorites because they are projected to hold Houston under their 19.5 team total (both odds and model have 23 for KC)
• The Chiefs home vs road defensive splits are striking with KC allowing just 14 per game at home (24.7 on road), 20 fewer rushing yards per game at home, 102 fewer passing yards per game, and 2.2 fewer yards per pass attempt
• The Texans are worse offensively on the road scoring 4 fewer points, averaging 13 fewer rushing yards and committing more than twice as many turnovers

[Dec 3, 2025 at 1:20 pm ET · Taft Gantt]

Golf is back this week and the stars are out. Eight Ryder Cup players — including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler — tee it up at Albany GC for the Tiger Woods-hosted Hero World Challenge. Here are my top four golfers for the week:

Scottie Scheffler (+150)

If there's ever a time a golfer should be minus money to win, it's this week. Scheffler has absolutely owned Albany — he's the back-to-back defending champion, and in his only two starts before that he finished runner-up both times.

Robert Macintyre (+1300)

Since the Ryder Cup, Bobby Mac has been in top form, finishing Top 10 in all three events he's played, including a win at St. Andrews.

Aaron Rai (+2000)

Rai comes in red-hot, with a win and a T3 in his last two starts on the DP World Tour. His ball-striking is among the best in the field, which is exactly what Albany rewards.

Akshay Bhatia (+2500)

In his first Hero World Championship appearance last year, Bhatia finished solo fourth, immediately showing he can handle Albany. The course rewards precise approach play — the strongest part of his game, as evidenced by his 14th-ranked Strokes Gained: Approach to the Green.

[Dec 3, 2025 at 8:30 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Based on the latest CFP rankings, the model's simulations, and our own logic, here are each bubble team's chances to make the 12-team bracket. Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M are all safely in at 100%.

CONFERENCE	TEAM	ITL CHANCE TO MAKE CFP	FANDUEL ODDS TO MAKE CFP	IMPLIED ODDS %	SCENARIO
SEC	BAMA	95%	-1500	93.8%	Win or keep it competitive with UGA
IND	ND	72%	-520	83.9%	Texas Tech beats BYU
AAC	NTEXAS	55%	-136	57.6%	North Texas beats Tulane
ACC	UVA	47%	-170	63.0%	UVA beats Duke
AAC	TULANE	45%	+116	46.3%	Tulane beats North Texas
BELT	JMAD	45%	+152	39.7%	JMU beats Troy convincingly and Duke beats UVA
BIG12	BYU	28%	+390	20.4%	BYU beats Texas Tech
ACC	MIAMI	7%	+570	14.9%	UGA beats Alabama and Texas Tech beats BYU (both convincingly)
ACC	DUKE	5%	+1800	5.3%	Duke beats UVA convincingly and looks better than JMU
MWC	UNLV	1%	+3000	3.2%	UNLV beats Boise State convincingly Duke barely beats UVA, Troy beats JMU

[Dec 2, 2025 at 11:52 am ET · Inside the Lines Team]

AFC Race to 10 Wins

In a jam-packed AFC, our model projects 10 wins as the key number to lock down a Wild Card spot. Below is each bubble team's percentage chance to reach the playoffs with 10 wins — and what happens if they fall short.

NFC Race to 11 Wins

In the NFC, we project 11 wins to be necessary for a Wild Card Spot. Notable teams that we give less than a 50% chance to reach that mark but could still make the playoffs by winning their division include: Buccaneers, Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers.

[Dec 1, 2025 at 12:32 pm ET · Inside the Lines Team]

The Inside the Lines team projects this College Football Playoff bracket based on results through the 14-week regular season. A few key notes to keep in mind:

• Miami falls just short with two losses. To reach the field, the Hurricanes would likely need to leap at least two of the following teams in the final rankings: BYU, Alabama, or Oklahoma.

• Virginia earns a spot as the ACC champion. However, if Duke were to claim the conference title instead, James Madison could slide in as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.

• Vanderbilt and Texas are left out due to resumes that lack the strength needed to justify a playoff berth.

Inside the Lines team

[Dec 2, 2025 at 3:14 pm ET · Inside the Lines Team]

Our latest Power Rankings, built from the model's simulated win percentages for every team if they played the entire league on a neutral field.