Gardner-Webb vs. VMI odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, Dec. 18 predictions from proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated VMI vs. Gardner-Webb 10,000 times

By Scout Staff

Dec 18, 2020 at 7:20 am ET • 3 min read

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The VMI Keydets visit the Gardner-Webb Bulldogs to get the Friday college basketball schedule underway. This is a non-conference matchup, with VMI in search of its first road win and Gardner-Webb looking for its first win of any kind in 2020-21. The Bulldogs opened with three consecutive road games, losing to Western Kentucky, Pittsburgh and East Tennessee State. VMI is 5-2 on the season with the team's only losses coming to major opponents.

Tip-off is at noon ET in Boiling Springs, N.C. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bulldogs as 4.5-point home favorites, up half a point from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 142.5 in the latest VMI vs. Gardner-Webb odds. Before making any Gardner-Webb vs. VMI picks, you'll want to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It's also off to a fast start in the 2020-21 season, going 8-4 on all its top-rated picks and returning well over $300. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on VMI vs. Gardner-Webb. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for Gardner-Webb vs. VMI:

VMI vs. Gardner-Webb spread: Gardner-Webb -4.5
VMI vs. Gardner-Webb over-under: 142.5 points
VMI: The Keydets are 8-7-1 against the spread in the last 16 road games
GW: The Bulldogs are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 home games

Why VMI can cover

VMI has a potent defense when it comes to challenging shots, limiting opponents to a 45 percent mark in effective field goal shooting. The Keydets are also a top-100 team in the country in free throw rate allowed, and Gardner-Webb is struggling in a few key offensive areas. The Bulldogs are shooting only 41.2 percent from 2-point range this season, and Gardner-Webb is also a poor free throw shooting team at 63.4 percent.

VMI also has an edge on the glass, with Gardner-Webb landing in the bottom quartile nationally in both defensive rebound rate (67.7 percent) and offensive rebound rate (20.9 percent). Extra possessions should go to VMI as a result, and the Keydets should be able to take care of the ball against a Gardner-Webb team that only creates a turnover on 14.7 percent of possessions.

Why Gardner-Webb can cover

The Bulldogs are a good 3-point shooting team, which can help to create positive variance. Gardner-Webb is converting 38.9 percent of its 3-point attempts so far this season, and the Bulldogs could find offensive rebounding success against a VMI team that allows a 29.8 percent offensive rebound rate to its opponents. Senior guard Jaheam Cornwall can also be trusted to engineer quality offense, and he is averaging 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.

Defensively, Gardner-Webb makes shots difficult for the opposition, including a 43.9 percent effective field goal mark allowed. The Bulldogs are giving up 45.7 percent on 2s and 27.1 percent on 3s this season, and Gardner-Webb is also threatening near the rim, blocking 12.6 percent of shot attempts. VMI also has a turnover problem on both ends, with the Keydets causing a turnover on only 16.4 percent of possessions and committing one on 22.6 percent of possessions offensively.

How to make VMI vs. Gardner-Webb picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with no player projected for more than 11 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Gardner-Webb vs. VMI? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the VMI vs. Gardner-Webb spread you need to jump on Friday all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.