Circling the Bases: A look back at 2004
With the 2004 Fantasy Baseball season now in the books, it's time to take a look back at this year's ups and downs. Tristan H. Cockcroft takes a look back at the long road that was the past six months.
Circling the Bases is our Fantasy Baseball expert column, full of insider information, advice and in-depth analysis. Every Wednesday year-round, Tristan H. Cockcroft provides an array of regular-season coverage, offseason player analysis and preseason draft strategy.
The Fantasy Baseball season has drawn to a close, and in this space you might normally expect to see my 2004 All-Fantasy team or list of postseason Fantasy awards. But like the NL wild card Houston Astros, who came from completely off the board to reach the postseason, why not take the old "out-of-left-field" approach to my season recap?
Fantasy Baseball is an emotional game, and we can't help but have our hearts rise and sink through the year as we battle the roller coaster. Folks, we have just invested six months of our lives, and it's hard not to feel nostalgic about the season that was. So instead of the traditional postseason list, this week let's take a look back and re-experience the joys and sorrows that were the 2004 season:
NOBODY DOES IT BETTER: I tip my hat to Minnesota's Johan Santana, who, since June 1, has pitched better baseball than anyone I have ever seen. During that span, he was 18-3 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.713 WHIP and 211 strikeouts in 167 innings over 23 regular-season starts. And while it's easy for anyone to extract four months of any player's season and use it to hail him as one of the greatest, keep in mind that he was coming off offseason elbow surgery, which might explain his 2-3 record and 5.61 ERA in his first 11 starts.
Looking beyond just Santana's Fantasy impact, isn't it shocking how little credit people have been giving the Twins in postseason predictions? His finish was not unlike that of Orel Hershiser's run in late 1988, when he carried the unheralded Dodgers past the favored Mets and Athletics that October. If Santana becomes this October's young ace -- like Josh Beckett a year ago -- don't be shocked. Keeper owners, just hope that doesn't mean a Beckett-like slide in 2005.
PATIENCE TAKES AWHILE: We had been waiting seemingly forever for Los Angeles' Adrian Beltre to finally realize his potential. It took so long, in fact, that it became a subject of humor. Our preseason profile for him: "One of the annual rites of spring is predicting this as Beltre's breakout year, so why should 2004 be any different?" Right on.
What a breakout year it was: Beltre led the majors with 48 homers, finished seventh with a .334 batting average and eighth with 121 RBI. Incredibly, he even kept up his career trend of improving after the All-Star break, batting 41 points higher (.356-.315) and registering four more homers (26-22) and nine more RBI (65-56) during the second half, when Fantasy owners in pennant races needed him most. Even more encouraging: Beltre, a prospective free agent this winter, hit 16 points higher (.342-.326) and logged two more homers (25-23) and just one fewer RBI (60-61) on the road than at home, further evidence that he could be an even better slugger outside of pitching-friendly Dodger Stadium.
DÉJÀ SWITCHEROO: Baltimore's Melvin Mora teased many a Fantasy owner with his .349-13-45-5 first half in 2003, only to succumb to nagging injuries, disappearing into oblivion. This season, he was right on pace with those first-half totals, batting .347-12-43-7 despite adjusting to third base. Then, in the first week of July, his hamstrings began acting up, causing many of his Fantasy owners to wonder whether history was about to repeat itself. The critics claimed it was rare for a player of his type to keep up that kind of pace at age 32. They were wrong. Mora spent the minimum 15 days on the disabled list, three of which were conveniently eaten up by the All-Star break, and roared back with a .337-14-58-4 finish.
Just how good was Mora's season? He might not have enjoyed the biggest breakout among third basemen -- Beltre takes those honors -- but he did lead his position in batting average (.340) and actually finished just two RBI shy of Alex Rodriguez, considered a consensus No. 1 pick by many entering the spring.
WHY DO YOU TORTURE ME SO? Fantasy owners probably don't find anything more frustrating than losing a key player due to injury in September, especially since most league titles are decided in those final weeks. Among this year's most aggravating late-season losses: Chris Carpenter, who rebounded nicely to post a career-high 15 wins, 3.46 ERA and 1.137 WHIP, didn't pitch again after suffering nerve irritation in his biceps in a Sept. 18 start. … Orlando Hernandez, who came out of nowhere to win eight of his first 12 starts, made just two starts after Sept. 17 due to a tired shoulder, allowing 10 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings. ...
Scott Rolen, who led the majors by a wide margin with 53 RBI through May, was limited to just six games and a .167 (3-for-18) batting average after straining a calf muscle Sept. 10. ... Carlos Guillen, who enjoyed a .318-20-97-12 breakout campaign, was knocked out for the season with a sprained right knee Sept. 11. ... Alfonso Soriano, a top Fantasy second baseman in the preseason, was lost for the year due to a hamstring injury he suffered Sept. 16.
KUDOS TO THE RECORD SETTER: Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki achieved quite a feat when he surpassed George Sisler's single-season record of 257 hits, set back in 1920. While there is a faction of baseball fans who say Ichiro's 262 hits aren't as impressive as some of the game's other hallowed records, mainly because it was achieved in a 162-game season (eight more than Sisler played in 1920), you can't knock a player arguing the longevity factor. In fact, that Ichiro also made a run at Willie Wilson's record for at-bats in a season (705, set back in 1980) actually made him more valuable from a Fantasy perspective.
For instance, Ichiro's major league-leading .372 average wasn't that much higher than Barry Bonds' .362 mark, the latter the NL's best. But it surely had a much greater impact on a Fantasy team than Bonds' total, which came in just 373 at-bats. If a typical Rotisserie squad gets, say, 1,680 hits in 6,000 at-bats (a .280 average), the addition of Ichiro would bring that team up to .2897 (1,942-for-6,704). Bonds, meanwhile, would improve it to just .2848 (1,815-for-6,373). A few thousandths of a point might not seem like much at first glance, but in most leagues, you're talking about a difference of as many as five Roto points, which is often the difference between first and second in the final standings.
SPEAKING OF ROTO: How frustrating was it to own Arizona's Randy Johnson, Milwaukee's Ben Sheets or Pittsburgh's Oliver Perez this season? This trio averaged a 2.74 ERA, 0.999 WHIP and 264 strikeouts in 33 starts, and accounted for three of the top seven spots in the majors in ERA, three of the top nine in WHIP and three of the top five in strikeouts. But despite their efforts, they managed a combined 40-38 record, thanks in part to having comprised three of the bottom 10 spots in run support.
CONGRATULATIONS ARE IN ORDER to this year's league champions in the SportsLine.com experts leagues:
Co-owners Charlie McCarthy and George Maselli took the honors in the CBS SportsLine.com Fantasy Baseball Magazine Experts league. Behind the stellar pitching of Santana, Team McCarthy/Maselli surged into the league lead in the first week of August, never really surrendering it in the final two months of the season. Among McCarthy/Maselli's best pickups? Two pitchers who rattled off fine finishes to the season: John Thomson (8-2 with a 2.85 ERA after being picked up) and Hernandez.
In the AL-only league, "Gridiron Guru" Michael Fabiano overcame an overwhelming deficit -- 16 points in mid-July and as much as seven at the end of August -- to nail down his first baseball experts title. Draft Day bargains Guillen and Victor Martinez were key contributors to his title run, but it was shrewd team management that earned him the victory. Fabiano plucked Hernandez off waivers in April, acquired Carl Crawford for Kenny Rogers and Shannon Stewart in mid-July and even capitalized on this columnist in landing Travis Hafner, Juan Uribe and Jeff DaVanon in exchange for Francisco Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro and Eric Young in mid-June and Mora in exchange for Bill Mueller and Ramon Ortiz at the All-Star break. What can I say -- I was one of those who got duped by the déjà vu factor regarding Mora.
In the NL-only league, Alex Patton, John Toczydlowski and Mike Gianella of Patton & Co. got huge seasons from Bobby Abreu, Mark Loretta and Jason Schmidt and held off the challengers from mid-June until season's end. Even Jack Wilson pitched in, joining Tony Womack and Loretta to offer Patton's gang one of the most productive middle infields at a dirt-cheap price: Loretta was a 10th-round pick; Wilson lasted until the 25th round and Womack was a preseason waiver claim.
And last, but certainly not least, congratulations go out to Steve Yoder, who became the second straight "regular guy" to win the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR)-National League title. Yoder made two excellent pickups -- Dustin Hermanson for $8 in mid-July and Jayson Werth for $1 in mid-June -- and was also led by Abreu and Loretta as he overtook ESPN.com in the season's final week. Sadly, for this columnist, it was a terrible season, as Team SportsLine.com finished a disappointing ninth out of 13 teams. I'll credit a $50 pickup of David Wright on July 26 for getting me that high; it was just not my season in LABR, but as they say, there's always next year!
You can e-mail your Fantasy Baseball thoughts and questions to Tristan H. Cockcroft at bleacher@commissioner.com. Be sure to put Attn: Tristan in the subject field, and include your full name and hometown. Please be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee answers to all questions.














