2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks, field grade, odds, best bets, golf predictions for California event
There are plenty of fascinating storylines at one of the most historic venues in all of golf
By
Kyle Porter
•
5 min read
The California swing is underway, and with Phoenix and Los Angeles out in the distance and a thriller at Torrey Pines in the rearview mirror, this week's coverage turns to an iconic golf course with a field that lacks a bit of pop. There are still plenty of storylines, but the Saudi International has swiped some of the biggest players in the world, which means the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am reaps the consequences of all that money thrown around at the top of the world.
Let's take a closer look at this week's contest with odds provided via Caesars Sportsbook.
Event information
Event: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Dates: Feb. 3-6
Location: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Monterey Peninsula Country Club – Pebble Beach, Calif.
Par: 72/72/71 | Purse: $8.7 million
Three things to know
1. Zalatoris bounced: Last week's runner-up and one of the favorites this week, Will Zalatoris, was a scratch on Tuesday after he tested positive for COVID-19. He had a real "I'm going to back up that near-miss with a victory at Pebble" vibe going, and I was going to pick him. Regardless, the landscape of the event has changed, and Patrick Cantlay's odds to win as the favorite went to 15/2 following the news.
2. Jason Day resurgence: I'm interested to see if Day's top 10 last week is a harbinger (he said afterward he could win five or 10 times in a year?!) or a one-off that simply gets him back into the top 100 in the Official World Golf Rankings. He's thrived at Pebble in the past, but his 2.78 strokes gained per round last week at Torrey was his best number since fall 2020. It was genuine fun to see him mixing it up with the top of the board, and he did a lot of it the way he used to do it -- with bombs off the tee and a scorching hot putter (Day was essentially the best putter in the world for most of 2015-2017). Hopefully we see more of the same again this weekend.
3. Spieth? After gaining strokes on approach shots in all but one measured tournament in 2021 leading into the Tour Championship, Spieth has now lost strokes on approach in his last four, and over the last 20 rounds he's 56th in this field in strokes gained tee to green. Again, this is not a great field, and Spieth is not in the top 50 in a very important category. The flip side of that is the sample size is small and he's been awesome at Pebble over the course of his career (of players in the field with 15 or more rounds played here, only Jason Day and Patrick Cantlay have been better). I can't take credit for noticing this trend -- my colleague, Rick Gehman, first pointed it out -- but now it's all I'm thinking about heading into Pebble week.
4. Saudi steal: The field at the Saudi International includes Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Tommy Fleetwood, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia and Phil Mickelson, which is a long way from Pebble, which has just three of the top 20 players in the world. To receive a release from the PGA Tour to play in the Saudi International, these players had to promise to play in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am at some point. The future is not this week, however, and one of the formerly preeminent non-majors on the Tour suffers as a result of the fact that so many players at the Saudi International are receiving eye-popping appearance fees.
Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter and Greg DuCharme preview the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Follow & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Grading the field
Though the field is down, there are still some intriguing stories in addition to Spieth and Day. Patrick Cantlay is going for his third win in in 11 starts, and Daniel Berger is trying to repeat as champion here after a lights-out last 12 months. Throw in Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose, and there should still be a lot to watch for on the weekend. Grade: C
2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks
| Winner (12-1): There is a bit of injury concern, it seems, but Berger has been a top 10 machine over the last 13 months, and it would be nice symmetry for him to bookend last year's win here. Since the start of 2021, nobody in this field who has played the majority of their events on the PGA Tour has more top 10s or a higher percentage of top 10s than Berger, who has finished in the top 10 a startling 10 times in 22 starts (45% of the time). In the short-term, he's first in the field in ball-striking over his last 20 rounds and also first in the field (by a wide margin) in tee-to-green play. He and Cantlay are the clear top of this class in both categories in recent history, and without Zalatoris playing, it's not even all that close. |
| Top 10 (+100): How well is Cantlay playing? In his last start at the American Express, he lost strokes in his best statistical category (approach play) and still finished in the top 10. This week he'll go for his his fifth straight top 10 (and sixth straight top 11) in a weaker field at a course he also plays quite well. It's a field he should dominate given how well he's been playing of late; in 10 of his last 11 tournaments, he's gained at least a stroke per round on the rest of the field, and he ranks No. 2 to Berger in strokes gained ball-striking and tee-to-green over the last 20 rounds for all players in this tournament. |
| Sleeper (55-1): I'm not concerned about his missed cut last week following an emotional American Express the week before. Hoge has either finished in the top five or missed the cut in his last four PGA Tour events. That's the kind of thing I'm going for with a sleeper, and only four players in this field have been better from tee to green over their last 20 rounds. |
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