2023 MLB playoffs: Orioles vs. Rangers odds, line, time, ALDS Game 1 picks, predictions by proven model

SportsLine's computer model simulated Saturday's Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles game 10,000 times and released its MLB picks

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 7, 2023 at 11:13 am ET • 3 min read

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After a five-day lay off, the Baltimore Orioles open their 2023 MLB playoff run on Saturday when they face the Texas Rangers in Game 1 of the ALDS. The Orioles (101-61), the top seed in the league, dominated on their home field, going 49-32. The Rangers (90-72), second in the AL West, had the second-best run differential in the American League at +165, just behind Tampa Bay's +195. The teams split their six games during the regular season, with Texas going 2-1 in Baltimore.

The game from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. ET. The Rangers had MLB's second-best batting average at .263, while the Orioles were 10th at .255. The Orioles are a -138 favorite (risk $138 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Orioles vs. Rangers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total runs scored is 8. Before making any Rangers vs. Orioles picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the 2023 MLB playoffs 91-73 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rangers vs. Orioles and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Orioles vs. Rangers:

Rangers vs. Orioles money line: Texas +118, Baltimore -138
Rangers vs. Orioles over/under: 8 runs
Rangers vs. Orioles run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+150)
TEX: The Rangers have hit the game total over in 24 of their last 39 games
BAL: The Orioles have hit the team total over in 45 of their last 78 games
Rangers vs. Orioles picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Orioles

Left fielder Austin Hays has had a consistent bat in the lineup this season and is among the team's top hitters. In 144 games, Hays batted .275 with 36 doubles, two triples, 16 homers, 67 RBI and 76 runs scored. He lit up Texas pitching in 2023. In six games, Hays batted .389 with two doubles, one triple, one homer and four RBI.

First baseman Ryan Mountcastle is also among the team's top hitters. In 115 games this season, Mountcastle batted .270 with 21 doubles, one triple, 18 homers, 68 RBI and 64 runs scored. He has hits in two of his last three games, including a 2-for-4 performance in a 3-0 loss to Boston on Sept. 29. In 18 career games against the Rangers, he has four doubles, two homers and 10 RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Rangers

Shortstop Corey Seager enters the series on fire, going 4-for-8 with three doubles, two RBI, two walks and two runs scored in the Wild Card round against the Tampa Bay Rays. Seager was among the Rangers' top hitters during the regular season, batting .327 with 42 doubles, 33 homers, 96 RBI and 88 runs scored. Dating back to the regular season, Seager has hits in 10 of 12 games. He has a double and a homer against the Orioles in 2023. In 15 career appearances against the Orioles, he is hitting .224 with three doubles, one triple, five homers and 15 RBI.

Second baseman Marcus Semien has appeared in all 164 games for the Rangers, including the two Wild Card matchups against Tampa Bay. He doubled, drove in one run and scored two others in that series. For the year, Semien is batting .276 with 40 doubles, four triples, 29 homers, 100 RBI and 122 runs scored. In six games against Baltimore in 2023, he has five hits in six games, including a double and three RBI. See which team to pick here.