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The NASCAR Playoffs will reach their conclusion on Sunday when the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship runs at Phoenix Raceway. Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. are the Championship 4 this season, which should make for a thrilling race when the green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET. Kyle Larson has been the dominant force this season and is the 6-5 favorite in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Elliott is 7-2 in the 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix odds, while Hamlin is 9-2 and Truex is 5-1. Before scouring the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup and making any 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. It also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks last month. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete NASCAR at Phoenix projected leaderboard.

Top 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 22-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Phoenix odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano needed a win last week in Martinsville to compete for a title this week and wound up finishing 10th and missing the cut.

However, the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series champion has still been running well, with four top-10 finishes in his last five starts. Logano has also run well at Phoenix Raceway throughout his Cup career, collecting 14 top-10s, seven top-fives and two wins in 25 starts there, including top-three finishes in his last three starts and a win at the spring race in 2020.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup. The defending champion secured his spot in the title race despite a 16th-place finish last week after leading 289 laps.

However, it's been a challenging season for Elliott after he won five times on his way to the championship last season. Elliott's only two victories both came on road courses this season, and he's finished 20th or worse in two of his last three season finales.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship? And which long shots do you need to back? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted Kyle Larson's wins in back-to-back weeks last month. 

2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds

Kyle Larson 6-5
Chase Elliott 7-2
Denny Hamlin 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
William Byron 17-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Kyle Busch 18-1
Kevin Harvick 22-1
Ryan Blaney 22-1
Joey Logano 22-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Kurt Busch 60-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Tyler Reddick 100-1
Matt DiBenedetto 150-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Ross Chastain 250-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Chris Buescher 300-1
Erik Jones 500-1
Daniel Suarez 500-1
Cole Custer 500-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Ryan Newman 500-1
Chase Briscoe 750-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Ryan Preece 2000-1
Justin Haley 2500-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Joey Gase 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
David Starr 5000-1
Timmy Hill 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1

2021 NASCAR standings

1. Kyle Larson 4181 points
2. Chase Elliott 4107 points
3. Denny Hamlin 4105 points
4. Kyle Busch 4074 points
5. Ryan Blaney 4073 points
6. Martin Truex Jr. 4071 points
7. Brad Keselowski 4068 points
8. Joey Logano 4048 points