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Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson has locked in pole position for the 2022 Daytona 500 and his Hendricks Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman will join him in the front row after qualifying on Wednesday night. Now the rest of the field will race for position at the 2022 Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona on Thursday night. The Daytona Duels have been a fixture since 1959 and the finishing order in the two 150-mile races will determine the starting lineup behind Larson and Bowman for the inside and outside rows. The first duel starts at 7 p.m. ET at Daytona International Speedway, while the second begins 20 minutes after the first is over.

Chase Elliott is the 5-1 favorite in the first 2022 Daytona Duel odds, while Denny Hamlin is the 5-1 favorite in the second of the Twin 150s. However, superspeedway racing can produce some unexpected results and when you add in the wrinkle of NASCAR's new "Next-Gen" car, all 42 drivers in the 2022 Duels at Daytona field will be hoping they can win their respective heats and earn prime position for Sunday. Before making any 2022 Daytona Duels picks, be sure to see the latest NASCAR predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. 

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

It also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson's wins during a historic season. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on its NASCAR picks.

Now, his model simulated the 2022 Duels at Daytona 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2022 Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona.

Top 2022 Duels at Daytona predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds for Daytona Duel No. 1. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 29-year-old is beginning his sixth overall season in the NASCAR Cup Series and his fourth with a full-time ride and he's coming off his best year so far.

Driving the No. 42 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing, Chastain earned eight top-10 finishes after recording just one in the first 79 Cup races of his career. That included a seventh-place finish in the 2021 Daytona 500 and top-five finishes at Austin, Nashville and Darlington. Now he'll slide into the No. 1 car for Trackhouse Racing Team and he'll hope to replicate that success beginning with the first of the 2022 Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, the Vegas favorite in the second duel at 5-1, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded Daytona Duel No. 2 field. Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and a 46-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series but he's coming off a season where victory lane eluded him the first 26 races of the year despite consistently strong finishes.

Hamlin has also finished ninth or worse in three of his last four starts at the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona and has led just one lap in his last three starts. The veteran knows his way around Daytona International Speedway well, so he'll probably be more interested in getting a feel for the next-gen car than fighting for position, which is a big reason why the model is fading him as the favorite on Thursday night.

How to make 2022 Daytona Duels picks

The model is also targeting eight other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2022 Daytona Duels odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Larson's wins last season. 

2022 Daytona Duel No. 1 odds

Chase Elliott 5-1
William Byron 7-1
Ryan Blaney 15-2
Kyle Larson 17-1
Brad Keselowski 11-1
Kurt Busch 11-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Ross Chastain 16-1
Austin Cindric 16-1
Daniel Suarez 21-1
Justin Haley 22-1
Daniel Hemric 23-1
Erik Jones 28-1
Cole Custer 28-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Noah Gragson 42-1
Kaz Grala 42-1
Todd Gilliland 50-1
Landon Cassill 50-1
J.J. Yeley 100-1
B.J. McLeod 180-1

2022 Daytona Duel No. 2 odds

Denny Hamlin 5-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Kyle Busch 19-2
Aric Almirola 10-1
Alex Bowman 11-1
Bubba Wallace 11-1
Martin Truex Jr. 11-1
Bubba Wallace 11-1
Martin Truex Jr. 11-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Austin Dillon 16-1
Christopher Bell 16-1
Chris Buescher 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18-1
Harrison Burton 24-1
Michael McDowell 28-1
Corey LaJoie 32-1
Greg Biffle 35-1
Ty Dillon 42-1
David Ragan 65-1
Cody Ware 100-1
Timmy Hill 150-1
Jacques Villeneuve 150-1