nascar-kyle-larson-usatsi.jpg
USATSI

The front row for the 2023 Daytona 500 is set after Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson went 1-2 in qualifying on Wednesday. Now, the rest of the drivers hoping to qualify for Sunday's Great American Race will battle for their starting position in the 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels on Thursday. The first race will determine the inside row and will begin at 7 p.m. ET, while the second race will determine the outside row of the 2023 Daytona 500 starting lineup, with the green flag set to drop at 9 p.m. ET.

Each race will be comprised of 60 laps and Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are the 8-1 co-favorites for the first duel in the 2023 Daytona Duel odds. Denny Hamlin is the 17-2 favorite according to the 2023 Duel at Daytona odds and will hope for a strong finish to set up a fourth Daytona 500 victory on Sunday. Before scouring the 2023 Daytona Duels starting lineups and making any 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Daytona Duels picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s win at the Clash at the Coliseum, returning 20-1. It also impressively nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins during his historic season. All told, the model has nailed a whopping eight winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 Daytona Duels 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels leaderboard.

Top 2023 Daytona Duels predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Justin Haley in the second duel, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Daytona odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Haley made waves as a 20-year-old when he came from out of nowhere in his third career NASCAR Cup Series start to win the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400.

He won four times in the NASCAR Xfinity Series over the next two seasons and has spent the last two seasons with a full-time ride in the NASCAR Cup Series, first racing for Spire Motorsports in 2021 and then for Matthew Kaulig in 2022. Now, Haley is back in the Kaulig equipment that helped him earn three top-five finishes last season and will try to put his Daytona experience to good use. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites in the second duel at 8-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels starting lineups. The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion is already locked into a front-row spot after qualifying second on Wednesday night, so there won't be a lot of incentive for him to race hard on Thursday.

But even if he were to go after the points available for Thursday's Twin 150s, Larson's track record at Daytona is less than stellar. Despite starting on the pole in the last three races at Daytona, Larson has finished 20th or worse in each race and has never finished better than sixth at Daytona in his NASCAR Cup Series career during a regulation race. He's only cracked the top five once in nine career starts in the Daytona Duels. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Daytona odds longer than 16-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag in their respective duels. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona Duels 2023? And which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Daytona odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Bluegreen Vacations Duels leaderboard, all from the model that just nailed the longshot winner of the Clash at the Coliseum.

2023 Daytona Duels odds, lineup, drivers

See full 2023 Daytona Duels picks at SportsLine

Duel 1:

Ryan Blaney 8-1
Joey Logano 8-1
William Byron 9-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Bubba Wallace 10-1
Alex Bowman 10-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Christopher Bell 16-1
Chris Buescher 16-1
Austin Dillon 18-1
Jimmie Johnson 20-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Michael McDowell 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Ty Gibbs 22-1
AJ Allmendinger 25-1
Harrison Burton 28-1
Zane Smith 50-1
Ty Dillon 50-1
Chandler Smith 66-1
Cody Ware 100-1

Duel 2:

Denny Hamlin 15-2
Kyle Busch 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Aric Almirola 12-1
Chase Briscoe 12-1
Austin Cindric 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Tyler Reddick 14-1
Martin Truex Jr. 14-1
Ryan Preece 16-1
Daniel Suarez 18-1
Justin Haley 20-1
Noah Gragson 25-1
Austin Hill 33-1
Corey Lajoie 50-1
Travis Pastrana 50-1
Todd Gilliland 66-1
Riley Herbst 80-1
Conor Daly 100-1
BJ McLeod 150-1