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Talladega Superspeedway is hallowed ground in stock car racing and the NASCAR Cup Series will return to the 2.66-mile tri-oval for the 2023 YellaWood 500 on Sunday. The green flag will drop at 2 p.m. ET in the second race in the Round of 12 as the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs continue. The NASCAR playoff field will be cut to eight drivers in just two weeks and the current bubble boy is 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson.

Larson has a two-point cushion over Bubba Wallace Jr. and is 20-1 in the 2023 YellaWood 500 odds, while Wallace is at 14-1 having won at Talladega in the fall two seasons ago. Brad Keselowski has six wins at this iconic track and is the 10-1 favorite in the 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds. Before scouring the 2023 YellaWood 500 starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR Talladega picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 13 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 YellaWood 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard.

Top 2023 YellaWood 500 predictions

For the 2023 YellaWood 500, the model is high on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., even though he's a 22-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds. Stenhouse was eliminated from the postseason in the Round of 16, but you can never count the veteran out when it comes to superspeedway racing.

All three of Stenhouse's career victories in the NASCAR Cup Series have come at superspeedways, including a win at Talladega in 2017 and a win in the Daytona 500 to start the 2023 season. He's collected nine of his 23 career top-five finishes on the two superspeedways that NASCAR runs including six top fives at Talladega. See who else to back at SportsLine.

And a massive shocker: Brad Keselowski, the Vegas favorite at 10-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. After a lackluster first season with RFK Racing, Keselowski has rebounded to have a strong campaign in 2023. He enters Sunday's race sitting seventh in the NASCAR standings but he does still remain winless on the season and that makes it hard to justify his status as the race favorite.

The 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion is a six-time winner at Talladega but he's also finished outside the top 20 in two of his last three races at the famed 2.66-mile tri-oval. He's also been outside of the top 10 in eight of his last 11 at Talladega despite only having his race ended by a crash on two occasions. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Talladega picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR Talladega odds 2023 of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the YellaWood 500 2023, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Talladega odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed seven winners this season.

2023 YellaWood 500 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Talladega picks at SportsLine

Brad Keselowski 10-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Chris Buescher 13-1
Bubba Wallace 14-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
William Byron 16-1
Christopher Bell 20-1
Aric Almirola 20-1
Kyle Larson 20-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse 22-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Chase Briscoe 30-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Michael McDowell 30-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Daniel Suarez 35-1
Austin Dillon 35-1
Ryan Preece 40-1
Carson Hocevar 50-1
AJ Allmendinger 50-1
Corey Lajoie 60-1
Todd Gilliland 65-1
Justin Haley 65-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Riley Herbst 150-1
Ty Dillon 250-1
Chandler Smith 300-1
Brennan Poole 500-1
BJ McLeod 750-1
JJ Yeley 750-1