steph-curry-warriors.jpg
Getty Images

It's a matchup of nearly identical teams on Sunday afternoon when the Boston Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks at TD Garden. The cross-conference matchup pits teams that are in the same position in the standings, and they have the same number of wins. They are two of the NBA's top three in terms of scoring defense, and they have very similar shooting numbers on the other end. Dallas (41-26) is fifth in the Western Conference and second in the Southwest Division, while Boston is fifth in the East and second in the Atlantic. The Celtics are on a five-game winning streak, while the Mavs have won six of their last seven. 

Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 7.5-point favorite in its latest Mavericks vs. Celtics odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 212.5. Before you make any Celtics vs. Mavericks picks, you need to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 74-47 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Celtics and revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Celtics vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Celtics spread: Boston -7.5
  • Mavericks vs. Celtics  over-under: 212.5 points 
  • Mavericks vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -320, Mavs +250
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six as an underdog
  • BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is 24-11 straight up and 15-18-1 against the spread at TD Garden this season, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been a strong scoring tandem. Tatum scored 30 points in a 114-103 win against Detroit on Friday and averages 26.8 points per game. Brown had 22 points and eight rebounds Friday and scores 23 points per contest. Marcus Smart scores 12.1 points and dishes out a team-high 5.6 assists. All three also play their roles on the stout Celtics defense, with Smart averaging 1.8 steals.

Center Robert Williams blocks 2.2 shots per game, tied for the NBA lead, as the Celtics limit opponents to 104 points per game (third in NBA). They rank first in opponent shooting percentage (43.1) and second against the 3-pointer (33.6). 

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has the best scoring defense in the NBA and one of its best players. Luka Doncic leads the team in almost every statistic, and he scored 30 in a 113-100 victory against Houston on Friday. Doncic is fifth in the NBA in scoring (28 points per game) and assists (8.7) and leads the Mavs in rebounds (9.6) and steals (1.2). Dwight Powell had a career-high 26 points against the Rockets, well over his average of eight points.   

The Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six road games. Spencer Dinwiddie (17.5 points, 4.5 assists) and Jalen Brunson (16, 5.2) complement Doncic, who scored 33 in the November meeting. Dallas gives up just 103.7 points, fewest in the league, and it ranks fourth in opponent 3-point shooting (33.7 percent). 

How to make Mavericks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 221 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.