nikola-jokic-cbs-usatsi-nuggets.jpg
USATSI

The Boston Celtics face a stiff road test on Thursday evening. The Celtics visit the Dallas Mavericks in a nationally televised clash, and Dallas enters on a seven-game winning streak. The Mavericks are 22-16 overall and 15-5 at home this season, while the Celtics are 11-7 on the road and 26-12 overall. Maxi Kleber (hamstring), Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor), and Josh Green (elbow) are out for the Mavericks.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 3-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 231.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Celtics picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 38-13 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning almost $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Mavericks spread: Celtics -3
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks over/under: 231.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks money line: Celtics -150, Mavericks +126
  • BOS: The Celtics are 9-9 against the spread in road games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-11-2 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is one of the best teams in the NBA this season after reaching the 2022 NBA Finals. The Celtics lead the NBA in offensive rating, scoring 1.17 points per possession, and Boston is also in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Boston is led by a potent duo of wings, with Jayson Tatum ranking in the top five of the NBA with 30.8 points per game and Jaylen Brown adding 27.2 points per game on 49.8% shooting. The Celtics also lead the league in free throw accuracy (82.6%), with Boston ranking in the top eight in assists per game (26.6) and turnover rate (13.6%).

On defense, Boston prevents free throw attempts at an elite level (21.1 per game), and opponents are scoring only 48.3 points in the paint per game against the Celtics. With Boston also blocking 5.2 shots per game and giving up only 22.7 assists per game, the Celtics present a challenge for any opponent.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has a leading MVP candidate in Luka Doncic. He is averaging 44.5 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game in the last six contests, making 43% of 3-point attempts in the process. For the season, Doncic averages 34.3 points per game to lead the NBA, and he ranks in the top five of the league with 8.9 assists per contest. 

With Doncic at the helm, the Mavericks are No. 6 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 1.15 points per possession, and Dallas ranks in the top three of the league in turnovers (12.3 per game), 2-point accuracy (58.1%), and free throw creation (25.8 attempts per game). On defense, the Mavericks limit opponents to only 10.9 3-pointers per game, and Dallas is in the top eight of the NBA in assists allowed (23.8 per game) and fast break points allowed (12.6 per game) this season.

How to make Mavericks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.