Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers will host Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Thursday. The Sixers will be without All-NBA big man Joel Embiid (finger), while Boston heads into this one completely healthy. The only injury note for Boston is that Kemba Walker (illness) could have his minutes limited on the second half of a back-to-back.

Tip-off for this one is set for 7 p.m ET from the Wells Fargo Center. Sportsbooks list the 76ers as 2.5-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 215.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. 76ers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 11 on a blistering 26-13 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Sixers on Thursday. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for 76ers vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Sixers spread: 76ers -2.5
  • Celtics vs. Sixers over-under: 215.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Sixers money line: Philadelphia -136, Boston +115
  • BOS: The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in road games over the past month.
  • PHI: In five games since an impressive Christmas Day win over the Bucks, Philly is just 1-4 ATS.

Why the Sixers can cover

The model is well aware of what a boost home court advantage provides to the Sixers. Philly has won just seven of 19 road games this season, while posting a pristine 17-2 record when playing at the Wells Fargo Center. Their point differential at home is elite (+9.7), and is a far cry from the -2.0 mark posted on the road. 

Philly has owned this matchup as of late, too. Dating back to last year, the Sixers have won the past three meetings with Boston. And while losing Embiid certainly doesn't help things, Simmons has played so well lately that it might not matter. Over the past two weeks, Simmons has averaged 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists, while also contributing two steals and a block per game. Even so, Philadelphia isn't a lock to cover the Sixers vs. Celtics spread. 

Why the Celtics can cover

The model is also well aware that Embiid has been the difference in the past three Philly wins over the Celtics, averaging 30 points and 16 rebounds in those games and posting a combined plus-minus of +49. Boston actually outscored the Sixers by 26 points in minutes Embiid wasn't on the court in those three games. With Al Horford no longer with Boston, the Celtics have very little in terms of resistance.

But, with Embiid missing Thursday's game with a dislocated finger, this matchup becomes much more winnable for the Celtics, who have been one of the NBA's best road teams this season. Boston ranks fourth in the NBA in cover rate against the spread (64.7 percent) when playing on the road, and they've upped that to 71.4 percent when playing as a road underdog. In general, the Celtics have fared quite well playing the underdog role this season, covering 75 percent of the time. 

How to make Celtics vs. Sixers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value.

So who wins Celtics vs. Sixers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the 76ers vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.