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Paycom Center hosts a cross-conference NBA matchup on Tuesday evening. The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Boston Celtics to town, with the Thunder entering at 15-21 overall and 10-19 at home this season. Boston has the NBA's best record at 26-11 overall. Robert Williams III (knee) is questionable to play for Boston, while Aleksej Pokusevski (tibia) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle) are out for OKC.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 8.5-point road favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 233 in the latest Celtics vs. Thunder odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Thunder vs. Celtics match-up, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 33-13 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning almost $1,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Thunder and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Thunder vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Thunder spread: Celtics -8.5
  • Celtics vs. Thunder over/under: 233 points
  • Celtics vs. Thunder money line: Celtics -355, Thunder +278
  • BOS: The Celtics are 9-8 against the spread in road games
  • OKC: The Thunder are 11-8 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics are excellent on both ends of the floor. On offense, Boston leads the league in overall efficiency, scoring more than 1.17 points per possession, and the Celtics rank in the top five of the NBA in free throw accuracy, true shooting percentage, and turnover avoidance. While the offense garners the majority of headlines, the Celtics are also stout on defense.

Boston is yielding only 110.6 points per 100 possessions, and no team allows fewer assists (22.4 per game) than the Celtics. The Celtics are also in the top five in free throw prevention (21.1 attempts allowed per game) and defensive rebound rate (73.8%), with top-10 marks in fast break points allowed, points allowed in the paint, and blocked shots.

Why the Thunder can cover

Oklahoma City is above-average defensively, yielding only 1.12 points per possession this season. The Thunder create 16.9 turnovers per game, a top-three mark in the NBA, and Oklahoma City ranks in the top eight in steals (8.0 per game) and blocked shots (5.2 per game). Boston also struggles to create free throw attempts on offense, allowing Oklahoma City to play with aggression near the rim. 

On the offensive side, the Thunder are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.8 points on 49.9% shooting. He has 11 games with at least 35 points this season, and Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a team that ranks in the top five of the NBA with 55.4 points in the paint per game. Oklahoma City is also in the top ten of the league with a 13.9% turnover rate, while Boston is in the bottom quartile of the league in turnover creation on defense.

How to make Thunder vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 232 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.