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FTX Arena showcases a Thursday night NBA matchup between high-profile squads. The Miami Heat are 8-5 at home this season, helping to lead to an 11-14 overall record, and they will take on the Los Angeles Clippers, with the visitors bringing a record above .500 on the road. The Clippers are resting Kawhi Leonard, with Norman Powell (groin) and Terance Mann (concussion) also out. The Heat are listing out Kyle Lowry (rest) and Gabe Vincent (knee), while Jimmy Butler (knee) is questionable.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 6-point home favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 212.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Heat odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Heat vs. Clippers match-up, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 111-70 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Clippers and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines and trends for Clippers vs. Heat:

  • Clippers vs. Heat spread: Heat -6
  • Clippers vs. Heat over/under: 212.5 points
  • Clippers vs. Heat money line: Heat -250, Clippers +205
  • LAC: The Clippers are 2-3 against the spread with no rest between games
  • MIA The Heat are 3-9-1 against the spread at home
  • Clippers vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Clippers can cover

LA is facing a tough challenge on the second night of a back-to-back set with travel, but the Clippers can lean on an excellent defense. The Clippers are in the top five of the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up fewer than 1.1 points per possession this season. Opponents are making fewer than 46% of shot attempts against the Clippers, a top-five mark in the NBA, and L.A. is in the top ten of the league in 3-point accuracy allowed and 2-point accuracy allowed. 

The Clippers do a good job preventing free throw attempts, giving up fewer than 22 per game, and L.A. is above-average in defensive rebound rate at more than 72%. Miami is shooting only 44.9% from the field, No. 27 in the NBA, and the Heat are below the league average in 2-point shooting, 3-point shooting, assists, and free throw attempts. The Clippers are giving up fewer than 49 points in the paint per game, and L.A. can take solace in making life difficult on opponents.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has the superior offense in this matchup, with a bevy of shooters and Bam Adebayo as a talented, versatile piece in the middle. Adebayo is averaging 20.7 points per game on 52.7% shooting, and he adds 9.2 rebounds per game and quality passing. The Heat are also No. 2 in the league in free throw accuracy (84.0%), and Miami takes care of the ball with only 14.0 turnovers per game.

LA forces fewer than 14 turnovers per game on defense, and the Clippers are also in the bottom five of the NBA in offensive rating, scoring only 1.08 points per possession. The Clippers are solidly in the bottom 10 of the league in turnovers per game and assists per game, and Miami leads the NBA in free throw prevention (19.2 attempts per game) and points allowed in the paint (45.4 per game) on defense this season.

How to make Heat vs. Clippers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Clippers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.