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USATSI

Top-seeded Miami was dominant in its series-opening win over No. 8 seed Atlanta on Sunday. The Heat took an early lead and never looked back in a 115-91 final, knocking down 18 of 38 from beyond the arc. The Hawks could not overcome 18 turnovers and 38.7 percent shooting, coupled with a 1 of 12 shooting performance from star guard Trae Young. The teams will meet in Game 2 tonight before the series shifts to Atlanta on Friday.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from FTX Arena in Miami. The Heat are listed as 7.5-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 219.5. Before you make any Hawks vs. Heat picks and NBA predictions, be sure to see the NBA playoff 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:

  • Hawks vs. Heat spread: Heat -7.5
  • Hawks vs. Heat over-under: 219.5 points
  • Hawks vs. Heat money line: Heat -340, Hawks +270
  • ATL: The Hawks are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta is not going to get that poor of a performance from Young in Game 2. He scored 102 combined points in four regular-season games against Miami, including 35 on April 8. Young averages 28.4 points per game, so the Hawks were never going to overcome an eight-point outing from him in Game 1.

The Hawks also turned the ball over nearly 20 times on Sunday, giving them a clear opportunity to correct some things heading into the second game of the series. They have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games, winning nine of those games straight up. Miami is favored by a full point more on Tuesday than it was on Sunday, creating some value on the Hawks as underdogs. 

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has significant advantages all over the place in this matchup. The Heat dominated in Game 1, using a switching defensive scheme to flummox the Hawks, and Miami held Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic to 14 combined points on 1-for-20 shooting from the field. Miami ranked in the top five of the NBA in several defensive categories during the regular season, including defensive efficiency, 3-point percentage allowed, field goal percentage allowed, turnovers created and points allowed in the paint. 

From there, the Heat project well on offense in this matchup, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in Game 1. Miami led the NBA in 3-point accuracy (37.9 percent) during the regular season, landing in the top 10 of the league in 3-pointers per game, free throw accuracy, assists per game and offensive rebound rate. Atlanta is also a bottom-tier defensive team, allowing nearly 1.14 points per possession during the regular season, and the Hawks are near the basement of the league in turnover creation and 3-point defense.

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.