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Madison Square Garden hosts an intriguing NBA playoff matchup on Sunday afternoon. The New York Knicks welcome the Cleveland Cavaliers to town for Game 4 of a best-of-seven series. The Knicks lead the series by a 2-1 margin following a 99-79 home win in Game 3. Quentin Grimes (shoulder) is listed as questionable for New York in Game 4.

Tip-off is at 1 p.m. ET in New York. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Knicks as 2.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 205 in the latest Cavaliers vs. Knicks odds. Before you make any Knicks vs. Cavaliers picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-37 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cavaliers vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Cavaliers vs. Knicks:

  • Cavaliers vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -2.5
  • Cavaliers vs. Knicks over/under: 205 points
  • Cavaliers vs. Knicks money line: Knicks -135, Cavaliers +115
  • Cleveland: The Cavaliers are 18-21-3 against the spread in road games
  • New York: The Knicks are 19-20-3 against the spread in home games
  • Cavaliers vs. Knicks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Cavaliers can cover

Donovan Mitchell is a notable weapon for Cleveland, averaging 25.7 points and 8.7 assists per game in the series. Mitchell also averaged 28.3 points per game on 61.4% true shooting during the regular season, and he is flanked by Darius Garland, who is a tremendous scorer and distributor in his own right. The Cavaliers also posted top-eight marks in the NBA in offensive rating, field goal percentage, and turnover avoidance during the regular season, and Cleveland is even better on defense. 

The Cavaliers are giving up only 102.5 points per 100 possessions in the series, and Cleveland also led the NBA in defensive rating (102.5) during the regular season. The Cavaliers also led the league in assist prevention, and Cleveland creates turnovers at a high level. Cleveland finished as a top-four team in the NBA with 15.7 takeaways per game during the regular season, and the Cavaliers are forcing a turnover on 17.0% of defensive possessions in the series. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Knicks can cover

New York has the edge on the margins so far in the series, including elite defensive metrics. The Knicks are allowing only 100.7 points per 100 possessions in three games, with the Cavaliers posting only a 53.2% true shooting mark in the series. New York is also forcing a turnover on almost 19% of defensive possessions in the series, and the Knicks finished in the top five of the NBA in points allowed in the paint, opponent shooting, and fast break prevention during the regular season. 

New York also has the edge on the glass, with a 72.7% defensive rebound rate during the regular season and eye-popping offensive rebounding numbers. The Knicks are grabbing 35.5% of available offensive rebounds in the first three games, and New York was No. 2 in the league in offensive rebound rate (31.8%) during the regular season. The Knicks also produced at a top-five level in overall offensive efficiency in 2022-23, scoring 1.17 points per possession. See which side to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Cavaliers vs. Knicks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 214 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the model's picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins Knicks vs. Cavaliers? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-37 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.