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The Boston Celtics knocked off defending champion Milwaukee in seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Now, the Celtics will try to take down the top-seeded Miami Heat when the Eastern Conference finals begin on Tuesday night. Miami needed six games to get past Philadelphia, wrapping up that 2022 NBA playoff series with a 99-90 win last Thursday. Kyle Lowry (hamstring) has been ruled out for Miami. Boston will be without forward Al Horford (health and safety) and could be without Marcus Smart, who is listed as questionable (foot). 

Tipoff for Game 1 iis set for 8:30 p.m. ET from FTX Arena in Miami. Miami is listed as a two-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 204. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks or NBA playoff predictions, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Mike Barner has to say.

Barner is one of the most respected voices in the industry, and his work has appeared in Sports Illustrated and on Yahoo, RotoWire and KFFL. He's also been featured on ESPN Radio. He digs deep into the data, examining team trends and projecting game outcomes. If there's anybody who can spot an edge in a matchup or identify a player in position to break out, it's him.

Barner's expertise has been on full display lately. He is on an amazing 36-25 run with his last 61 against-the-spread NBA picks involving the Heat, returning $845 to $100 players.

Now, Barner has set his sights on Celtics vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Heat spread: Heat -2
  • Celtics vs. Heat over-under: 204 points
  • Celtics vs. Heat money line: Heat -135, Celtics +115
  • Celtics vs. Heat tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • BOS: The Celtics are 8-3 against the spread in playoff games
  • MIA The Heat are 7-4 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston's defense is unquestionably elite. The Celtics lead the NBA in defensive rating this season, allowing only 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Boston also led the league in field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed and assists allowed, with an overwhelmingly positive defensive profile. In the postseason, that dominance has continued, with opponents scoring only 105.2 points per 100 possessions against Boston. The Celtics are limiting the opposition to 44.3 percent shooting overall and 32.9 percent from 3-point range.

Boston is also limiting opponents to only 20.2 assists per game and blocking 6.0 shots per game, with the Celtics bringing strong offensive traits to the table. Boston is shooting 37 percent from 3-point range and over 80 percent from the free throw line in the playoffs, averaging 25.1 assists and only 13.2 turnovers per game. The Celtics are assisting on more than 65 percent of field goals in the playoffs, and Boston is led by a dynamic creator in Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 28.3 points per game in the postseason.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has achieved much more playoff success than Boston over the last decade, prevailing in six straight conference final appearances. The Heat got past the Celtics in the 2020 Eastern Conference finals, marking Boston's fourth consecutive loss in the conference finals. Miami also enters this series with a rest advantage after wrapping up its series against Philadelphia last Thursday.

Boston needed seven games to get past Milwaukee, so it only had one day to prepare for Game 1 of this series. Miami's six-time All-Star Jimmy Butler has topped 30 points five times in 10 starts this postseason. He leads a Heat team that is on a nine-game home winning streak heading into this contest, giving them an edge over the fatigued Celtics. 

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

For Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, Barner is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side of the Celtics vs. Heat matchup to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat? And which side is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Celtics vs. Heat you need to jump on, all from the expert who has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.