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Already the NBA's all-time leading scorer, LeBron James reached another milestone on Saturday by becoming the first player to reach 40,000 career points. James, Anthony Davis and the Lakers will take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder on Monday, with James' scoring prowess always a popular NBA prop pet to pursue in NBA player props. It was just in December that the four-time MVP dropped 40 points on OKC, and his NBA prop total for points tonight is 25.5.

In addition to his 40-pointer just a few months versus Oklahoma City, James has gone Over 25.5 points in each of his last five games. He's averaging 36.8 minutes played over this stretch as the Lakers are heavily leaning on the 39-year-old in their playoff push. More minutes, obviously, lends itself to more chances to score, so is the Over the side to back with this NBA prop? Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Monday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 64-40 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

For Monday's NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model's NBA prop picks at SportsLine. 

Top NBA prop bet for Monday

After simulating every game on Monday's NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking Under 26.5 points for Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard at -128 odds. The Clippers visit the Bucks at 8 p.m. ET, and Leonard hasn't been his usual potent self in matchups with Milwaukee. He's gone Under 26.5 points in each of his last five meetings with the Bucks, averaging just 19.6 points over that stretch. You have to go back over five years -- and when he was with the Toronto Raptors -- to find the last time Leonard went Over 26.5 points against Milwaukee.

The Bucks' defense, and the length of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, has made life difficult for Leonard, as he hasn't shot better than 50% from the field in each of his last seven games versus the team. Tonight's contest is the second night of a back-to-back for Los Angeles after winning in Minnesota on Sunday, and Leonard has gone Under 26.5 points in five of his last seven games coming with no rest, averaging 23.6 points in those contests. The model projects 25.3 points for Leonard on Monday. You can see which other NBA picks to back here.

All NBA prop bets for Monday's NBA schedule

7:30 p.m. ET: Grizzlies vs. Nets
See Nets vs. Grizzlies props here

8 p.m. ET: Clippers vs. Bucks
See Bucks vs. Clippers props here

8 p.m. ET: Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves
See Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers props here

9 p.m. ET: Wizards vs. Jazz
See Jazz vs. Wizards props here

10 p.m. ET: Bulls vs. Kings
See Kings vs. Bulls props here

10:30 p.m. ET: Thunder vs. Lakers
See Lakers vs. Thunder props here

How to make NBA prop picks for Monday

The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Monday's schedule. You can only see the model's NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine. 

Which NBA prop picks should you target on Monday? Visit SportsLine now to see the NBA best bets from an advanced model that is on a 64-40 run on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.