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Both the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from advancing to the NBA Finals. They both have 3-1 series leads over the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively, and, barring some insane comebacks, will likely meet each other for the right to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy later in June.

It's fair for the fanbases of the Thunder and Pacers to be taking premature victory laps, but we've already seen some wild comebacks throughout these playoffs. The Knicks alone had several 20-point comeback wins in the second round against the Boston Celtics to get to the conference finals, so if there were ever a team to beat the odds and shock everyone it would probably be them.

But what are the odds stacked against the Knicks and Wolves? Can we expect two unlikely comebacks in these playoffs -- or even just one? Can either New York or Minnesota be the next team written in the history books, alongside the likes of the 2016 Golden State Warriors, to not just come back from a 3-1 deficit, but advance? Let's take a look at the numbers and break down the likelihood of that happening. 

0

  • The number of times the Knicks and Timberwolves have come back from a 3-1 deficit. 
  • The Knicks are 0-15 in situations where they've been down 3-1 in the playoffs, including three previous instances against the Pacers, once in the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics and four times in the NBA Finals.
  • The Timberwolves are 0-4 when they've been down 3-1 in the playoffs, most recently last season in the Western Conference finals against the Dallas Mavericks; they lost the series in five games.
  • Number of times the Pacers have blown a 3-1 series lead in the playoffs.

1

  • Number of blown 3-1 leads by the Oklahoma City Thunder in franchise history. The only time it happened was in the 2016 Western Conference finals against the Golden State Warriors, who went on to win the series in seven games and advance to the NBA Finals.

3

  • There have been only three instances where a team has come back from a 3-1 deficit, the last being the Golden State Warriors in 2016. The other two teams are the 1981 Boston Celtics, who beat the Philadelphia 76ers in seven games in the Eastern Conference finals, and the 1979 Washington Bullets, who beat the San Antonio Spurs in the Eastern Conference finals after falling behind 3-1.

13

  • Number of times a team down 3-1 in a best-of-7 series in NBA history have won the series

283

  • There have been 283 instances of a team falling behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series in the NBA playoffs. Those teams have gone on to win just 4.4% of the time.

Given all the history stacked against the Knicks and Timberwolves, it seems incredibly unlikely that both, or even one of them manages to fight their way back into either of their series. For the Wolves especially, as the oddsmakers have the Thunder has incredibly heavy favorites (-7000 via FanDuel) to win the Western Conference finals with Game 5 looming Wednesday night.

That's not surprising given that OKC's margin of victory has been 14.3 points over their three wins. But Minnesota has been far more competitive in the last two games, and managed to blow the Thunder out in Game 3. Still, that hasn't been enough to prove the Wolves can win three more games in this series, much less even one to extend the series.

For the Knicks, despite having never won a series they trailed 3-1, including three different times against the Pacers before this year, Indiana still isn't as heavily favored to make it out of the East (-590 via FanDuel). That's likely due to every game aside from Game 4 of this series being decided by six or fewer points, with neither team being able to consistently build up a massive lead over this series. It's also because the Knicks have proven several times already throughout the postseason that they can tread water against raging waves. New York overcame two 20-point deficits in the second round of the playoffs against the Celtics, showing this team is capable of recovering even when they're on the brink of losing.

But these aren't the Celtics, and the Pacers have proven to perform well under pressure and when playing with a lead. Despite the close odds that Las Vegas is giving the Knicks, it's going to take another herculean effort from New York to knock off Indiana.